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RuhRoh
24.4K posts
@T_90_M_2024 Too many failure points and no one will be happy, don't see how this lasts
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🇮🇷🕊️🇺🇲 I'll try to be honest & objective:
This deal isn't complete dogshit, but contains every red flag imaginable.
A lot of things,can go erong within 30 to 60 days.
Renouncing to enriching uranium is a massive mistake.
Sadly Pezeshkian's moderates are an untreated cancer.
Megatron@Megatron_ron
🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Iran-U.S. Memorandum of Understanding: Full Details Phase 1 | Upon announcement of the MoU (effective immediately): – Upon announcement of the MoU, both sides declare an immediate, complete and permanent end to all hostilities in the region, including Lebanon. – Upon announcement of the MoU, the United States declares the immediate and complete lifting of the U.S. naval blockade against Iran. Phase 2 | After Signing of the MoU (30-day period): – Upon signing the MoU, the United States confirms its commitment to non-interference in Iran’s domestic affairs and respect for the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran. – Upon signing the MoU, the United States affirms that it will not increase the amount of troops or military assets present in the region, nor impose any new sanctions during the negotiations. – Upon signing the MoU, Iran reaffirms its commitment to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and confirms that it will never produce, develop, or acquire a nuclear weapon. – Upon signing the MoU, the United States declares that it will provide Iran with half of its frozen funds, amounting to a value of $12 Billion, to be made available in a non-reversible manner within 30 days, with a commitment to make the remaining half available during the subsequent 60 days. – Upon signing the MoU, the United States will issue sanctions waivers for Iranian oil, gas, and petrochemical exports, effective immediately, with a commitment to extend these waivers permanently once a final agreement is reached. – Upon signing the MoU, the U.S. will begin immediate consultations with Israel to present a short term timeframe for a full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, including points occupied following the 2024 Israel-Hezbollah agreement. – Upon signing the MoU, Iran confirms it will reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial maritime traffic, according to certain specified arrangements determined by Iran, within 30 days. Phase 3 | Negotiations on a Final Deal (60-day period + possible extension): – The 60-day negotiating period will begin once all the terms of the MoU have been met in the previous 30 days. – The 60-day negotiating period can be extended by mutual agreement of both parties. – During these 60 days, the U.S. will make the remaining $12 Billion of Iran’s frozen assets available. – During these 60 days, the U.S. will present plans for a reconstruction fund for Iran, amounting to a value of at least $300 Billion, funded partially by Gulf states. – The U.S. and Iran will begin detailed discussions on a permanent solution to nuclear-related matters, including enrichment, the existing uranium stockpile, and the fate of the nuclear sites. – The U.S. and Iran will begin detailed discussions regarding the lifting of all economic sanctions on Iran, including primary, secondary, U.S. and UN sanctions, as well as the withdrawal of all UN Security Council and IAEA Board of Governors resolutions against Iran. – A monitoring mechanism will be established to supervise the implementation of a final agreement. – The final agreement will be approved by a UN Security Council Resolution. @Middle_East_Spectator
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The Iran-Israel war is not ending and probably cannot end at this point. We are just getting past the high tide of U.S. involvement in this war and shaping the region to contain Iran.
Clash Report@clashreport
BIG: Israel's Defense Minister Katz says the IDF will not withdraw from security zones in Lebanon, Syria, or Gaza despite the US-Iran ceasefire deal. Netanyahu made this clear directly to Trump. Katz says the security zones will be cleared of local residents and all terror infrastructure destroyed, including homes in contact-line villages that served as Hezbollah outposts. He calls holding the zones "among the IDF's greatest achievements" in the war and says Israel "will not withdraw despite all existing pressures and those that will still come." He warned that if Iran attacks Israel over Lebanon, Israel will "strike it with full force."
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Fable will be the most mythologized model this year probably
The first LLM we've had a chance to be awed by but not enough time to find the wrinkles
The hedonic treadmill is real, people get bored with miracles easily. Unless you instantly take them away
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Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir says Trump’s agreement “does not bind us,” that Israel is “an independent and sovereign state” and is not subordinate to the U.S.
Ben Gvir says Israel must not accept anything less than Hezbollah’s disarmament, must not withdraw from any territory captured and cleared by Israeli forces, and must not remain silent in response to fire toward Israel.
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It’s worth keeping in mind that this circus is not even about making a deal, but only about making a deal to make a deal. In other words, it won’t actually settle anything, the only point is to undo the mess that Trump created by starting this war in the first place.
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@martian_lore Time will tell, I think we're in the "everyone lost, try again next year"
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All eyes on tanker traffic. Does Iran start letting prewar ship traffic through the strait?
Nothing else matters tbh.
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@ScienceFan_ The biggest issue is that Israel didn't pay a major price for the war tbh, very little incentive for them to not try again later and attempt to salami slice their way to victory
Status ante bellum is not a great outcome for Iran
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@haylen630 So it seems, both sides are posting entirely different MoUs again though
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@RichardTheYesLi To embrace my eternal doomer stance, definitely a chance the Iranians are pulling a diplomatic defeat out of a possible military victory
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@RichardTheYesLi Iranian major victory would involve removing the US and Israel near term threat which I highly doubt they got,
Minimal victory would be ending of sanctions tbh, which they may get(has to go through congress)
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@martian_lore Obviously ngl, I mean his kids are culturally Indian so she's obviously the dominant one
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Ok you know what, she mogs him
JD Vance@JDVance
Happy Anniversary to our lovely Second Lady. 12 years and almost 4 kids later, and we're still going strong. Love you Usha!
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This was very predictable and often happens when countries try to “localize”. Look at how even Mistral is beginning to fall behind since it’s becoming more of a captive sovereign AI play.
Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞)@teortaxesTex
Seems like Koreans are… providing all middle powers with a timely warning about sovereign AI. If you allow your companies to be big frogs in a small well, you get exactly what you deserve. But if you don't, what prevents them from being steamrolled by Allied Scale?
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@ScienceFan_ Eh no one is gonna pay attention unless Slavyansk is taken tbh
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Kind of incredible how out of touch the whole discourse is on the topic of the Russo-GAE war considering 404 is about to lose one of the last of their Donbass fortress cities...
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