DANA WHITE'S CONTENDER SERIES PROP #1,2,3,4: ๐ฅFREE DISCORD ๐ discord.gg/dV9f3GrCa W. Schultz + M. Mingaj "U" 56.5 Significant Strikes (Combo) A. Nuftillaev "O" 3.75 Fight Min M. Rahiki "O" 3.5 Fight Min F. Vidal "U" 14.5 Significant Strikes ๐ if tailing! - Schultz returns to the show aiming to cash in on his 2nd chance, this time he has a more favorable opponent compared to Mansur Abdul-Malik. Both guys have a similar style in where they are strong on the ground and not as technical on the feet, and I feel a big chunk of this fight will be on the ground. Schultz comes in as a -200 favorite and I believe he should be the clear minute winner on the ground. When it comes to takedown defense, it's not that Mingaj just doesn't have a ground game, but he is fairly comfortable off his back and doesnt mind throwing subs off when on bottom. Schultz should be getting takedowns and control here and limiting any chances of absorbing shots on the feet. Striking-wise, feel that Mingaj doesn't really throw enough volume to worry me here, and usually will just throw one shot at a time. Wes wasn't afraid to try to wrestle against Malik who was a former D1 wrestler, and attempted 8 takedowns after getting continously stuffed. Mingaj will probably accept the takedowns and try to work his guard game, and I don't see a path for either guy to get many SS. - This Nuftillaev line is slightly mispriced, and feel that it should be closer to about 4.75. (60 seconds is a lot in this show). On DK, o5 min is -130, so I feel it's solid value. But I do think this fight does ultimately get a bit extended. I am feeling a fraud alert with Nuftillaev. After some tapology digging they reduced his record from 17-1 to 13-1. But I'm looking thru the records and against opponents with above .500 records on the regional scene ๐ 0:53 finish vs 11-6 Elbaev โ 9:32 finish vs 11-8 Batista โ 13:04 finish vs 15-4 Santos โ 13:55 finish vs 7-4 Brandao โ 8:55 finished vs 4-0 Trabelsi โ 15:00 draw vs 20-12-1 Protzenko 1:32 finish vs 10-9 Golub โ 9:42 finish vs 3-1 Merkulov Fights are going into the second round at a 6/8 clip against winning rec opponents. He's mostly just been a wrestle-heavy guy where if you have just a bit of skill, you shouldnt be getting finished immediately. Leka looks fat asl but he actually has some solid striking fundementals and can even get flashy at times when his opponent fades. He has been taken down before though in fights and controlled against the fence like vs Zhorzholiani and Vinnikov, and I think he can be controlled early vs Azamat. I think this could be very sloppy early, where Azamat clinch hugs alot, and all we need is 4 minutes to come off that clock. Expecting Leka to be on the defensive to start the fight, I think he will survive and hopefully make it to round 2. Not expecting a brawl in the first couple minutes so I mess with the over on fight time. - Rahiki line just feels too low as well and also expecting the o5 min mark to be favored on DK. The u1.5 opened at -200, and has been bet down to a -150, meaning more action is coming on this fight to get extended. These guys don't have like the touch of death off go in the cage, and to have a 3.5 min line for a featherweight scrap seems a little crazy to me. Rahiki looks like a very promising prospect to me. Background in kickboxing, and has been rounding out his game with the grappling too. But this fight will be on the feet most likely where that favors the skill of Rahiki. Mulumba also can scrap but I think his explositivity will bring caution from Rahiki, and feel a slow start before they settle in. For some reason, featherweights are getting served left and right quickly on the show this season, but I do expect this fight to be a little different as both guys can come out with a controlled striking base. Just hope one of their chins don't give out. 4/6 of Rahiki's fights have went over this line and it's still a bit of a value play, should be at 4.75. - Vidal comes back onto the show, taking the under on SS as I really don't anticipate a long fight here. He cashed in as a +300 underdog against a FRAUD in Franco who was still for sure the better guy but the cardio gave up on him and was not as physical and got reversed alot, even with 6 takedowns on Vidal and Vidal had 0. I don't think Vidal's UFC level at all, and he's only getting this 2nd chance because Dana didn't want to sign him off that performance but still gave credit to Vidal for stepping in on like 5 days notice. Rodrigues should be the way better striker, even better than Franco, and shouldn't be looking for takedowns. For sure Vidal is strong asl, but he will be the one who needs to initiate the wrestling if he wants to land GnP. On the feet, he's slow and stiff. Against Franco he landed 8/24 SS at distance for 4.6 min. I think he gets smoked here against a powerful Rodrigues, who has some wins in the LFA and all 5/5 wins via knockout. Shouldn't be cashing unless this fight hits the mat and he gets into like a crucifix and/or this fight goes over 1.5 rounds (+150 over), but we'll see right. Hopefully just an early KO to end this season on a good note. - #GamblingX | #PlayerProps | #UFC320 #PrizePicks #TacoTuesday #GamblingX #DWCS #UFC320 #UFC #UFCRio #DFS #GamblingTwitter #UFCPicks #PrizePicksNFL #PrizePicksMLB #prizepicksplays
