SarauityPrecise Market Analysis

54 posts

SarauityPrecise Market Analysis

SarauityPrecise Market Analysis

@ArtAndSign

가입일 Eylül 2009
41 팔로잉26 팔로워
Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
So just putting it out there: Towa (6315), at $1.35B... Is a rare, living definition of monopoly over HBM4 (compression molding). It's been kinda flat YTD, but every memory company like $MU, Sk Hynix, Samsung are their customers. And each of the memory company earnings signaled massive capex increases. Even as seen with $TSM earnings, every major semi is going through a massive capex cycle to meet AI demand. And all three memory makers have printed from hbm3e and nand... so the next capex cycle is probably not like the last (meaning a lot more spend). Like $ASML, this is hyper-cyclical but I wanted exposure to the upcoming HBM4 capex ramp over these next few months. Thought I'd put this name on people's radar alongside $LPK (glass core substrates) as a functional monopoly. But I do feel like this timing is about right while every machine supplier is having a massive re-rating yet this was relatively flat. Not exactly a new find, since a few other analysts + random followers had this name but hope I get the timing right. (Disclaimer: I do hold positions, this just TLDR of my own thoughts, please don’t copy trade)
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
Pretend $SIVE, $LITE make specialized blue and red maine lobsters. Very rare, not many people can do. $POET steams the lobsters and prepares it in a ready-to-go container. $MRVL buys those lobster tails, puts it together on a plate with broccoli and steak. Then serves it at the highest price to high end customers. Marvell is famous for serving Blue lobster tails. But can always serve Red ones, and it’s easier to keep serving Blue that they’re used to. And it’s also possible for the Red lobster farmer to shift to Blue lobsters with some effort, but it takes time to raise those lobsters. But… it just so happens Marvell’s competitor Nvidia bought out all the Red Lobsters for their restaurant. In the end, they still need those rare blue Maine lobsters. But just decided to steam it themselves. That’s $POET and $MRVL situation. It’s likely they’ll just go buy lobsters directly since you can’t just spawn Blue lobsters.
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
Memory names from $MU to $EWY (SK Hynix, Samsung) and $SNDK are going brrrr lately. Aside from the big three, then your NAND or TW names like Nanya. Might be a good time to look at names like Towa (6315) to capture upstream monopoly capex cycles for hbm4?
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Serenity@aleabitoreddit

Markets are looking at CPUs right now and kinda forgot about memory. But... there's increased capex spend with Sk Hynix, $MU, Samsung around now, with Samsung starting HMB4 production recently. $TSM also signaled record capex across the board. But just like $LPK in glass core substrates... There's a decent amount of structural monopolies over in the HBM camp markets that I'm thinking about in places like Japan. That markets may have forgotten? They would largely benefit from current HBM4 capex cycles. Over in Korea, things like Hanmi Semi (KRX: 042700) have been taking off, up 27.6%+ today, so I'd guess the other companies around the world might play catchup soon.

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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
Just now, $MTSI looking to invest $45 Million into $IQE and sit on the board. What did I say anon??? Landmark was overcapacity... + IQE was a structural chokepoint in photonics the supply chain back at $100M MC. This deal is also to secure long term epiwafer supply.
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Sarı papatya
Sarı papatya@Sarpapatya100·
Woke up to birdsong, roasted marshmallows by the fire, and watched the sun dip below the pines. Camping = soul reset #WildernessVibes #CampLife
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Mary Cunningham
Mary Cunningham@MaryHodge·
"Just wrapped up the funniest episode of [Show Name]—the cast’s ad-libs had me snorting coffee! Who’s your favorite guest Drop a below! #VarietyShowVibes #MustWatch"
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Shebhrp Captial Mrakcts
Shebhrp Captial Mrakcts@Daniunthinkable·
"Mission accomplished! Just crossed off the final task on my list—time to take a tiny victory lap. #TaskDone #WinningMoment"
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やす ベソチャ一キヤビ夕ル.
やす ベソチャ一キヤビ夕ル.@gh_devil·
" 3 Quick Tips for Thriving Pothos: 1. Bright indirect light (no direct sun!) 2. Water when top 2 inches of soil feel dry 3. Wipe leaves monthly to boost photosynthesis Your green buddy will thank you! "
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Assistant
Assistant@DayaneSilva345·
"Morning hike to the misty mountain top Breathtaking views, fresh pine air, and a perfect start to the day! #NatureLovers #HikeLife #Wanderlust"
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TumAtiluk
TumAtiluk@TumAtiluk·
"Unboxed this gem Fresh, functional, exactly what I needed. Swipe to see the unboxing magic! #UnboxingDay #HappyMail"
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SarauityPrecise Market Analysis
SarauityPrecise Market Analysis@ArtAndSign·
Tired of hitting snooze Try this 2-step fix: 1. Move alarm clock FAR from bed 2. Drink a glass of water first thing Small shifts = big energy wins!
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