고정된 트윗
Astron
930 posts
Astron
@Astron_Markets
Agentic Intelligence for Prediction Markets @RavenAI_
가입일 Nisan 2020
142 팔로잉1.1K 팔로워
@_nimishjain this explains why most prediction markets feel dead outside traders.
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JUST IN: It has been revealed the phone number for Minnesota’s “Sweet Angel Child Care” goes directly to the office of Governor Tim Walz.
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@thenarrator Right. Prediction markets compound information and edge.
Attention markets compound volatility.
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people keep lumping prediction markets in with casinos and meme casinos, but the data tells a very different story:
> prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi, etc.)
they are structurally closer to information markets (information arbitrage) than casinos.
most volume comes from repeat traders, hedgers, and information-driven strategies.
profit distribution is skewed toward a smaller group, but those users compound over time.
the edge is repeatable, not viral.
meaning that the rich don’t just get richer, they get better positioned to keep winning.
> pumpfun / meme launches
there’s no underlying signal to extract, only narrative velocity.
memecoins optimize for:
→ attention capture
→ social momentum
→ reflexive price action
the majority of participants lose.
value accrues to early insiders and short-term momentum players.
it’s closer to a lottery than a market.
> traditional betting
high rake, negative EV by design.
entertainment first, returns second.
what’s interesting is where this is heading:
prediction markets are quietly evolving into financial infrastructure with leverage, liquidity, and now integrations directly inside wallets and apps.
they’re starting to resemble tradable information layers, not just bets.
the takeaway isn’t that one is good and another is bad.
it’s that markets built around information quality behave very differently than ones built around attention extraction.
and the gap between the two is only getting wider.
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Sometimes the clearest proof of a future is when different builders arrive at it from different directions.
Three teams picked up Push SDK and independently built toward the same idea:
identity, contribution, and coordination shouldn’t depend on which chain you happen to be on.
@BountiveXYZ saw it in how contributors move.
@chaincircle_ saw it in how communities save.
@Push_NS saw it in how identities work.
Different products; same signal!
When fragmentation disappears, creativity expands.
And maybe that’s the real promise of interoperability, not connecting chains.
But freeing builders from thinking about them at all.
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I read the entire 88-page @Dune x @keyrock prediction markets report so you didn’t have to.
Actual signals from the data 👇
1/ Prediction markets scaled from <$100M monthly volume in early 2024 to $13B+ by late 2025.
That is ~130x growth, faster than most DeFi primitives at comparable maturity.
2/ This is not a sports betting story.
On Kalshi, Politics + Elections + Economics hold ~2.5x more open interest than Sports.
On Polymarket, Politics exceeds Sports by ~400% in open interest throughout 2025.
3/ Volume is flow. Open interest is belief.
Sports dominate transactions.
Macro and politics dominate resting capital, which is how real hedging instruments behave.
4/ Accuracy is measurable.
Across Polymarket and Kalshi, Brier scores cluster around ~0.09.
That outperforms polls, expert forecasts, intelligence models, and even weather prediction systems.
5/ Liquidity directly improves truth.
Higher volume markets show materially lower forecast error.
More capital = tighter probability calibration. This is not narrative driven pricing.
6/ Prediction markets act as leading indicators, not reflections.
Kalshi’s inflation markets were ~4.3x less volatile than Cleveland FedNow, while repricing earlier around macro releases.
7/ User quality is real.
Polymarket retention beats ~85% of crypto protocols in a 275+ project sample.
This is sticky capital, not mercenary flow.
8/ What is emerging is a new derivative class.
Event-level hedging without greeks, margin, or volatility surfaces.
Discrete outcome risk priced directly.
This is not betting.
It is markets discovering prices for uncertainty itself.
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Stranger Things Season 5 - Part 2 drops today.
and polymarket is already predicting some deaths ☠️
Eleven - 60%
Jim Hopper - 18%
Steve Harrington - 17%
Will Byers - 16%
Robin Buckley - 15%
No official hints
No leaks
Just crowd psychology, anxiety, and maybe a few insiders being irresponsible.
what do you think?
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Astron 리트윗함
We built @Ravenai_ by treating prediction as an intelligence problem, not a UX problem.
Raven is not a wrapper around LLMs.
It is an intelligence system built on our own proprietary ML models.
Reasoning models to understand how beliefs and narratives resolve in prediction markets.
Mathematical ML models to forecast accurate crypto price across market regimes and time intervals.
Every prediction is timestamped.
Every outcome is validated live.
Directional and Price accuracy beating current Industry standards
When this edge compounds, early users don’t just test the product, they build wealth with it
DM us for invite codes. 400 only.
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Stranger Things shares are mispriced on Polymarket
Odds that Stranger Things will become the top-1 show in the period from December 24–30 are 55%.
People think that football, Emily in Paris, or Man vs Baby will be able to overtake Stranger Things in views, but it is worth looking at the historical data:
1. In the week of its release, Stranger Things 5 gathered 60M views (It marks the biggest premiere for any English-language show in the history of Netflix) and 23M in the following week. For comparison, Emily in Paris managed to gather only 13M, and Man vs Baby 20M.
2. If we take data for the last week of December 2024 on football viewership, we will see that these events gathered 14M views each.
3. This season is the final one for Stranger Things; on December 25, on Christmas Day, episodes 5–7 will be released, and on December 31 the final eighth episode.
4. Stranger Things is one of the biggest Netflix projects of all time, with a fan base all over the world.
It is important to understand how views are counted on Netflix. If at the end of November 4 episodes were released and the runtime was 4/4, then on December 25, when 3 more episodes are released, the runtime will be 3/7, because the total number of episodes will be 7, and only 3 episodes will be released.
This means that with absolutely equal metrics in the last week of November and the current week, views will drop by 57%. This is what is already priced in. But even in this case, we get 25M views under the assumption that we will not see new viewers.
Even in such a situation, Netflix is a clear favorite.
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Astron 리트윗함
AI Polymarket tools that will help you print in 2026 (these actually work).👇
@PolymarketEco - A vibe-coded Polymarket ecosystem repo (referred to as PolymarketET) containing an ultimate list of cracked Polymarket AI tools for scanning and sourcing.
GitHub Polymarket AI trading bot repo - A developer framework and set of utilities for building AI agents specifically for Polymarket, now free and publicly available on GitHub.
@MoonDevOnYT GitHub Repo - Features some of the best Polymarket AI guides; also check the associated X account and YouTube for additional free AI insights.
Polymarket AI Agent API - An MCP by IQ AI that enables AI agents to interact with Polymarket's prediction markets, including market data retrieval and trade execution.
@polytaleai - An all-in-one Polymarket research assistant with 24/7 market scans, smart money agents, active news feeds, and general AI assistance.
@polybroapp - An expert deep research assistant (works across Polymarket and others like Kalshi) that generates complete AI-driven evidence reports on prediction outcomes and probabilities through data collection, research, analysis, and final reporting.
@polytraderAI - Analyzes market sentiment and provides actionable insights using AI, specifically by processing social media data to estimate probabilistic outcomes.
@PolySimplr - Transforms Polymarket into a simple interface with valuable AI integrations to cut through trading noise.
@tradefoxai - A prediction markets aggregator offering the best liquidity, with features like limit orders, stop losses, take profits, TWAP, filters, fast execution, and the ability to copy trade insiders and profitable wallets.
@Ravenai_ - A prediction market agent bot built by @Astron_Markets
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BREAKING: 20% chance Bitcoin hits $150K before June 2026
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Hired someone today whose only request was to be paid in stablecoins 🥹
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feeling extra based today
Elon Musk@elonmusk
Feeling extra based today, might regret it later, but it feels so good 🔫🦾😎
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