BitBrew

@VolSignals How is this any different than any other business talking their own book? Isn’t that was advertisements are?

Wild West I’m starting to crave more FINRA

Computer use is now in Claude Code. Claude can open your apps, click through your UI, and test what it built, right from the CLI. Now in research preview on Pro and Max plans.

@WatcherGuru He acts like there’s a choice. Print money and devalue the debt is the only way.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Jerome Powell warns US national debt is growing "substantially" faster than the economy and says it's not sustainable. "It will not end well if we don't do something fairly soon."

I’m also bullish Gold but I have issues with it being a measurement of value as we enter an AI/machine economy. It may be viewed more as a collectible.

Things I’m bullish on the next decade: 1. Bitcoin 2. AI model providers (Anthropic, Google) 3. AI buildout (energy, compute) 4. Aerospace/defense (robotics, drones, space labs) 5. Industrials (machinery, equipment) 6. Tokenization and perps ($HYPE and RWA) 7. Japan (re immergence of a global power) 8. Dollar (American exceptionalism, stablecoins) 9. Information markets (Polymarket) 10. Land (farmland, water, minerals)

@hillery_dan @BTCoptioneer I like to view it as the $SCHD of Bitcoin. And since $BTC is better than $SPY, it will outperform it including the yield.

@BTCoptioneer Which is absolutely insane BTW. It's the SPY with an embedded BTC option.

$STRK yield is now 11.2% Similar yield to $STRC with 2-3x upside in the next few years Undervalued…

Another way to view it is until you see people stop using older models to save money on token usage, then the conversation shouldn’t even be happening. If startups were using Opus 4.6 all day (wait until Mythos comes out and try and use that every day and not run up a bull), then that would tell me that token cost isn’t an issue. Startups and businesses are using older models to save money. This is telling me tokens are still too expensive on the margin. If they weren’t, people would use Opus 4.6 all day. Until we see that, I don’t think you can have the conversation of overbuilding yet.

Fundamentally disagree with the fact we’re overbuilding compute. I could write a whole long post about why but the easiest way to explain it would be with a question. How many companies (let’s just take publicly traded) are using Claude code, thousands of openclaw agents all day, Perplexity computer etc.? These take IMMENSE amount of tokens. If all companies within the next year were to use this amount of tokens, I guarantee you we don’t have enough data centers. The cost of a token would probably 100x or more. This isn’t even thinking about more powerful models to come. I don’t buy for the foreseeable future while these AI models are in recursive self improvement that it’s possible to overbuild. It’s not just about demand it’s also about that until every business is legit AI native and running thousands or millions of agents, you can’t even comprehend “what is enough compute”.

The BTC Bottom Is Closer Than You Think youtu.be/sx0BzXIZCls?si… via @YouTube

Long Thread: Liability Management Exercises in Credit The discussion on credit continues to rage on. But one area where I feel more nuance is needed is when people argue that PC is fine because it is secured with collateral protection. So I will make an exception to my 280-character rule and write a longer thread. Credit is ultimately a contract. Your collateral is only as good as what the credit documents say. If the docs allow your collateral to be distributed or stripped away, then it is not much of a collateral. In the old days, equity holders would hand over the keys to existing lenders, allowing those credits to retain their seniority and benefit from the floor value of the enterprise as it entered bankruptcy, where debt would be equitized. That is no longer the case. Over the past few years, loose covenants have allowed companies to strip out a significant portion of collateral from existing lenders, raise new debt on those freed up collaterals that ranks ahead of the legacy credit, and effectively re-stack the capital structure. You get priming and dilution. Shareholders get liquidity and runway to preserve their equity optionality. Existing creditors are left junior, with higher interest expense further draining enterprise value. For private credit, the issue is less pronounced than in public markets since you are dealing with fewer lenders who can have direct dialogue with sponsors. But if the documents allow sponsors to raise money on stripped-out collateral, then the best lenders can hope for is to provide that new money themselves at attractive terms and soften the economic impact. But the original debt is still getting primed. This is a major issue in credit markets, and a key reason you are seeing such wide dispersion between performing BBs and cuspy B-/CCC-rated secured BSLs. No one wants to own a restructuring credit because the process now heavily disfavors those with collateral to lose. This dynamic is still relatively new in the post-COVID period, and it is going to surprise many investors if/when we enter the next distressed cycle and they see where recoveries actually clear. I do not mean to alarm anyone too much. Rising macro tides can lift all boats over time. But loose covenants can truly hurt credit investors in this cycle. PS: There is a fair number of zombie LBO companies that have suffered through four years of “higher for longer,” bleeding cash through higher interest payments. This has led many firms to cut back on capex for several years, which can materially impair enterprise value recovery esp in non-cyclical sectors as they compete against less levered peers that did not suffer from overburdened balance sheets. One of the benefits of Chapter 11 was the ability to quickly equitize debt and reset the capital structure, allowing companies to move forward without the burden of prior leverage. Liability management exercises preserve the option value of equity, but they increase the debt burden on an already stressed capital structure and can ultimately destroy long-term value.

BREAKING: President Trump says the US is in “serious discussions with a new and more reasonable regime to end our military operations in Iran.” Trump also says that if a deal is not made, the US will “blow up and completely obliterate all of their electric generating plants, oil wells, Kharg Island, and possibly all desalinization plants.”

The future of income investing... is already here $SATA

Every rally is a relief rally that will be sold into until the Iran situation resolves. This could take until May.

The next two months will put enormous pressure on the Fed. The oil shock will push inflation higher just as the central bank is already under the spotlight to cut rates, with a newly chosen replacement set to take the chair. A debt trap will now be colliding with the inflationary pressure of oil and the deflationary pressure of AI. My new piece on why this is exactly the kind of moment Bitcoin was created for: visserlabs.substack.com/p/doge-20-debt…

BREAKING: Iran’s Speaker of the Parliament provides trading advice to investors trading US markets: “Pre-market so-called ‘news’ or ‘Truth’ is often just a setup for profit-taking. Basically, it is a reverse indicator. Do the opposite: If they pump it, short it. If they dump it, go long. See something tomorrow? You know the drill.”

@KobeissiLetter They forgot to say not financial advice

Rotation can take months. In between, there’s usually much fear. IMO, most of this is on purpose. They use this fear to rotate out of Gold while everyone is buying Gold for “protection”, then buying risk assets while they get pummeled. Now this isn’t a for sure thing as macro needs to hold up. If the economy slows, this becomes much less of a chance. But I still believe a rotation is taking place. At the moment, there’s quite buying but not huge. Most rallies are being sold into. Once this geopolitical issue resolves, I think the rotation takes full effect.

🧵Everything is bottoming against gold right now. Stocks wobbling, real estate stalling, bonds getting crushed by yields, even Bitcoin showing relative strength vs. the shiny metal after its own drawdown. Gold had one hell of a run — smashing records, hitting $5k+ territory — and now it's giving back some gains amid profit-taking, higher rates, and whatever geopolitical noise is moving the tape. But look at the ratios: $BTC / $Gold carving out a potential base after months of consolidation. Small caps ( $IWM) starting to flex vs. the big boys. Broader risk assets finding support while gold consolidates or pulls back.

Just lay siege to Iran and take over the Strait. We knew this was inevitable once they didn’t surrender after the assassination. Either Trump has to give up and look a fool, or lay siege. The latter it will be if Iran doesn’t back down. A lot of people think Trump is here to just go things. No, this is a REQUIREMENT to get the Strait in US control. How do I know this? For leverage. Did anyone notice Trump pushed the meeting back with Xi? Trump needs to get leverage going into the meeting and getting this amount of leverage would send a message. If he cannot get this leverage by May 14th, he’ll push the meeting back again. He views this as a certainty. He’s already made up his mind.

The same way paper becomes less valuable as we have machines, Gold will become less valuable as we have Bitcoin. AI accelerates the adoption of Bitcoin and the uselessness of Gold. Why would a machine trust Gold? Why does it need it? How could it understand it? We’re transforming our society from being human based, to machine based. Comparing today’s geopolitical shift to shifts in the past cannot be done because we’re on our way to becoming a fully autonomous society. Why would machines need to understand Gold? Humans used Gold as a measurement of value for thousands of years. But, machines will need a native value measurement. That’s Bitcoin. I cannot allocate to Gold having knowing this logic. It cannot be done when I know machines will be controlling and holding all value.