Chasing Antares

@TraderMercury I'd say you made your real wealth by being a gratitude maximalist and choosing integrity over temptations. The material wealth is just a side effect of that. 🫡

every time I admit being wrong, I get ‘dunked’ on last time I did it, people subtweeted about me within minutes of the quoted post below… only for Bitcoin to trade -40% lower, and alts to selloff -80%+ in coming weeks I’m often reminded there is literally 0 incentive to be transparent about trading on this app we’ve all seen what people praise on CT: nonstop bullish propaganda that leads pigs to slaughter it’s no wonder the consensus is: quality of this place has diminished, and great traders have stopped posting entirely or pivoted to discussing war/politics instead of trading I deal with this nonsense everytime, for years now I’ll never change though. real ones know I made my wealth NOT from being a VC, NOT by farming an airdrop, NOT from a paid group, and NOT from shilling vaporware undisclosed I made my wealth and retired my parents early, through ~6 years of consistently profitable trading. people acting like I’m rekt bc I got chopped up on a few trades in what I knew to be poor and unfavorable trading conditions, impossible. life is a bullmarket. to those of you that took the time to read this: goodluck🖤

@LSDinmycoffee @abetrade What if it turns into this for longer than usual? (my question is probably the bottom)

@abetrade i'm just gonna wait for stocks to finish puking then maybe i'll consider buying BTC

I still think buying BTC between here and 50k is pretty solid for a spot trade. The whole space has been down bad since the start of the year, and while commodities are now the main gamblers' paradise, I would be surprised not to see Bitcoin rally once stocks bottom. Pairing the negative sentiment around crypto with the fact that the global open interest z-score is at historical lows is generally a decent spot to get some allocation.

@abetrade Assuming stocks rally soon

@abetrade Thank you for generously sharing this in-depth analysis with us!

@cryptodude999 More than the total crypto market cap in a few days

Which potential structure do we have here for #Gold?

@TraderMercury I was joking that btc will go to 42069 back in November but it now seems stocks want 420.69 too

this is continuation of having acknowledged the objective weakness from prior the assumption is/was that we would atleast get to this region now pending reaction along high(er) timeframe inflection point for either relief bounce, or accelerated selloff. x.com/TraderMercury/…

if this trend breaks, throw in the towel on the idea of a relief rally crypto likely serves as high-beta to a 'risk off' environment (as always) need to give very HTF trends like this wiggle room, so it's still retesting for now, but I imagine we get an answer soon.

@cryptodude999 Binance listed tradfi tokens and the S&P immediately reversed a 300-day uptrend. Crypto is undefeated...

The everything bubble has burst. Tone will shift dramatically.

@Dentoshi No one could've seen it coming after 8 green candles in a row 🤭 x.com/i/status/20309…

😬

bulls need to put in the work here, pronto $BTC

@abetrade Humbling to read that level of analysis. Thank you for sharing!

@abetrade Thanks for sharing but all things considered why wouldn't we "head much lower"? After going through 2022 this doesn't seem unreasonable to me even though we've had 6 months of down-only. Genuine question, no disrespect

All longs flushed on BTC into what is basically a retest of the one-month range. Also, momentum shifted positive yesterday after like two months or so, and the general state of crypto is at all-time lows it feels like, so I would like to bullieve that this wasn't all just a range fakeout and we could see a move higher from around here. Especially after last week, where BTC held better over indices, and that seems to be the case today as well, more or less. Obviously, the market regime is not really favoring risk at all, so this all seems more like wishful thinking, but it feels like if these levels cant hold we are heading much lower.

@Dentoshi 😄 x.com/ChasingAntares…

Every bear market, $BTC loses Weekly 200 EMA, deviates below and bottoms there. 2015: -35% 2018: -25% 2022: -43% If we lose it here – a similar % deviation bottom would be in green (eventually).

@abetrade Love the algo 😄 (And the confluence)

So is this the bottom? That's obviously hard to say, but with the current state of things, I think it's not the most unreasonable thing to get some long exposure. The trend is in a complete gutter (duh), while price is hitting prior levels from 2021 and 2024. Besides getting long, which I would probably recommend here via very low leverage or spot if you don't plan to day trade around it. I think a quite non-stupid trade is trading the term structure normalization, which you can do via calendar spreads. The forward factor (forward volatility between the 30-day and 90-day expirations, essentially measuring how much extra volatility the market is pricing into the near term relative to longer dated options) is the highest it has been since FTX. Therefore a long calendar spread, which bets on the term structure compressing back to normal, is looking pretty attractive. If we look at the returns after -3.5 sigma events, you can see that while they do not necessarily lead to immediate market bottoms, the short-term mean returns hover around zero, aka "chop." This is where a long calendar spread, which is short gamma and benefits the most when markets do not move, makes a lot of sense. It is also a debit position so your risk is capped. As you extend the time horizon to 30 and 60 days, the mean return jumps to around +10-11%, which supports the case for having some directional long exposure alongside it.

Some more expanded Bitcoin thoughts on current market structure, what's the sensible trade to take and so on. Yesterday we saw the worst day since FTX collapsed. Price being down 14.04% puts this as the 5th worst day after FTX, 2021 China ban, Celsius/3AC collapse and Covid. One thing which I guess a lot of people are expecting on a day like yesterday is more capitulation in the perps market, which I personally don't think is really necessary considering how much leverage and open interest got wiped out on 10/10. The slightly more muted reaction (no massive liquidations, funding at baseline) is not that surprising in the current market conditions I guess. Where the blow-off happened though is in options where level of backwardation in term structure and put premium equals the FTX crash levels panic.

@Crypto_Chase 300 weekly MA ~56k and 200 is around 58k. Probably good confluence for a bounce in that region

Laughing at this earnings call full of cope then gonna go play TBC launch. Orders iceberg'd to 58K if necessary. Good luck friends.

@TraderMercury Scary part: not even much of a wick, just up-only on the inverse chart.

@Dentoshi I knew my pre-elections shorts were not wrong (just had a 84% bull trap to 126k) 😄

JUST IN: $BTC touched 2021 ATH's

@LSDinmycoffee If we are indeed entering a proper bear isn't a basket of fiat good enough while more clarity emerges and most asset classes get cheaper?

still not sure what do I rotate these profits into... energy stocks were the most popular reply in the comments, and I like it... but rotations were like AI->GPU->datacenters->RAM->energy so basically energy is the latest AI beta, thus a poor hedge against AI bubble pop?

@Trader_XO Can't believe how clean it all is. Also can't believe we had such a classic Wyckoff distribution. So similar to '21 x.com/ChasingAntares…

$BTC Sweet Science... How did we do?

you know what's a classic in the midst of a $BTC bear market? a redarded $ETHBTC bounce before the next leg down

@LSDinmycoffee @SmokeyHosoda Seemed more far-fetched when I memed about it 3 months ago. At this rate we could go there in a couple of weeks 😄 x.com/ChasingAntares…

@SmokeyHosoda sooo with testicular torsion that's 42069

Balls telling me 69420 But I also have testicular torsion so

if you're feeling down these days about the fact that you wasted your life and money by being in crypto, don't worry, you wouldn't be doing anything meaningful with your life anyway.