Hawk 🧪
3K posts
Hawk 🧪
@Clem_Hawk
Stoïciste financier 3000+ days on-chain
Bretagne, France 가입일 Ocak 2011
304 팔로잉194 팔로워
@NCheron_bourse Oh que oui
Il suffit d'attendre tous les 2/3 ans qu'un événement ponctuel se pointe (COVID, Ukraine, tarifs douaniers) et y mettre la totalité de ce qu'on peut se permettre de mettre
C'est une stratégie lente, qui repose sur rien du tout d'autre que la patience
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Pensez-vous qu'il est possible pour un particulier (avec un travail à temps plein), de surperformer les indices boursiers sur le long terme ?
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@anatolium Le nucléaire civil n'existe pas dans l'énergie, (parce que c'est idiot d'espérer trouver + de combustibles☢️à la surface de la Terre plutôt que dans tout son volume) et le renoncement de🇩🇪à la mascarade☢️🇫🇷en signant le North Stream vaut à l'🇪🇺la guerre en 🇺🇦, pour sauver ce☢️🇫🇷
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Lionel Jospin n’a rien apporté de bon au pays.
Maastricht, le pacte de stabilité et l’euro, le renoncement nucléaire, le FN, les privatisations à outrance, la désindustrialisation
Il s’en est montré satisfait.
Il est mort.
Dont acte.
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@anatolium Jeune ignare !
Le référendum sur Maastricht, c’est septembre 1992, époque à laquelle Jospin n‘était pas au gouvernement.
Sinon, le traité de Maastricht et l‘euro, c’est très bien
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Fast swaps are cool.
Safe swaps are cooler.
@Ledger 🔐
Ledger@Ledger
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Now we all agree that firebombing ambulances is bad; perhaps @Keir_Starmer would like to condemn the IDF for its systematic destruction of medical facilities and murder of medical workers in Lebanon?
Haaretz.com@haaretzcom
IDF strikes on over 100 medical facilities in Lebanon kill 40 medical workers, Health Ministry says haaretz.com/middle-east-ne…
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Hawk 🧪 리트윗함
This war has nothing to do with nuclear weapons, terrorism, or dead protesters.
For decades, Israel has openly pursued an agenda to topple Iraq, Syria, and Iran.
They orchestrated all of these wars in order to eliminate their rivals and gain total hegemony over the Middle East.
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@Polymarket So every time it gets hot its record climate change but when its unusually cold nobody says anything ? Feels like we only highlight data that fits the narrative not the full picture.
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BREAKING: Phoenix hits 100°F for third straight day, its highest March temperature ever recorded.
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@Clem_Hawk @clement_molin @ecrevix @__phiphou__ Ça a fermé fessenheim, stoppé Astrid, ralentit tt les investissements durant des années et on a perdu de l’expertise, pendant que d’autres puissances avancaient. N’oublions pas la trahison de Voynet
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During years EU 🇪🇺 (german 🇩🇪) lobbyist made us believe that France 🇫🇷 was the worst performer in the EU in terms of renewable electricity.
They put pressure on ALL European countries to shut down their nuclear power plants.
Look who is today on top and at the bottom : ⬇️
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@Crypto_fox7 @clement_molin @ecrevix @__phiphou__ Ces nulos n'ont pas réussi à nous saboter (et heureusement)
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La « mésentente cordiale »
-Churchill (exasperated) ou était-ce le Gl Ed Spears, anyway :
« I have many crosses to bear, but the heaviest of all is the Cross of Lorraine »
-De Gaulle (wild, free, 0 compromise) :
« Je suis trop pauvre pour m'incliner »
De Gaulle is the shenanigans master via unbreakable moral high ground & dignity >> bully Churchill, empire, navy, allies.
Et Roosevelt vis-à-vis de De Gaulle vous demandez-vous : il le détestait & l’exclût du D-Day Normandy landing briefing ~ « another Boulanger or Napoleon wannabe, using the war to grab one-man rule. Such an arrogant imperialist clinging to French colonial empire »
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À Londres, le général de Gaulle aperçoit Churchill vêtu d'un costume à rayures, d'un nœud papillon à pois et d'une chemise à carreaux. Étonné, il lance :
- Mais c’est le carnaval de Londres !
- Mon cher, tout le monde ne peut pas s’habiller en soldat inconnu.
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@Clem_Hawk @TheOpinion84510 @FaytuksNetwork You have a Zionist cock in your mouth, I cannot hear you
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WATCH: Direct hit in Dimona, Southern Israel, following Iranian BM fire
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@TheOpinion84510 @FaytuksNetwork Nothing, nothing escalated, it's happening for weeks
Fkn slop
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@FaytuksNetwork Escalation just crossed another line. What happens next?
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@Mio_Mind Much of New Orleans was built below sea level. It shouldn't be the US taxpayers' responsibility to spend $Bs to implement countermeasures. New Orleans can pay for it or deal with the floods.
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I remember after hurricane Katrina in New Orleans the U.S. asked for help how to manage water
I met one of the Dutch engineers who went there to help
All the solutions he presented he got the reply: “That’s too expensive for us”
But hey keep bragging you’re the richest country
Bitcoin Teddy@Bitcoin_Teddy
How the Netherlands outsmarted the ocean with technology.
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French 🇫🇷 Air Forces Rafale fighter jets have already shot down 60 Iranian drones above the UAE 🇦🇪
The UAE are already operating 60 Mirage 2000 fighter jets that will soon be replaced by 80 Rafale fighter jets and 50 F35.
In the Perisan Gulf region, Qatar is the only country operating 36 Rafale.
Saudi Arabia which is currently operating F15, Tornado and Eurofighters could be a future buyer of the French Rafale.
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@NotChris404 @ross_baglin Who could have guessed that threatening your allies could have consequences ?
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@ross_baglin "Begging." LOL.
You're being offered a chance to prove even a modicum of value to this so-called "alliance."
And failing miserably.
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For those with long memories of 1956, it is mildly amusing that the US is now begging Britain and France for help in unblocking what is, in effect, a shipping canal.
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@FurkanGozukara Well, it's France.
I heard, not on Fox news, they they already surrendered.
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OMG you won't see ON FOX News for sure:
French NATO General Yakovleff:
Joining Trump in the Strait of Hormuz is "like buying a ticket for the Titanic after hitting the iceberg"
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I was interviewed by an Algerian radio station (in French). The host didn't like what I said.
my.radioalgerie.dz/fr/node/49295
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@shanaka86 Imagine being Qatar: you give the US CENTCOM's forward headquarters, you let bombers launch from your soil, and in response your critical national infrastructure is crippled. They cover a lot of cost, but not benefits are seen for now
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BREAKING: Qatar’s Prime Minister stood at a podium today and delivered one sentence that will fracture Gulf alliance architecture for a generation: “Everyone knows who the main beneficiary of this war is.”
He did not name the country. He did not need to. The Arab diplomatic vocabulary has a grammar for this. When a Gulf leader says “everyone knows” without naming, the audience fills the blank. The X discourse filled it within minutes. The interpretation was dominant and immediate across Arabic-language accounts, with Gulf analysts and Arab media converging on the same reading.
Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, who also serves as Foreign Minister, called for an immediate halt. His full statement: “This war needs to stop immediately. The aggression needs to stop immediately. Because everyone knows who the main beneficiary of this war is, and dragging the whole region into this conflict is dangerous.” He described Iranian strikes on Qatar as a “dangerous miscalculation” and “betrayal.” He urged restraint from all sides.
Consider the position this man occupies. Qatar hosts Al Udeid Air Base, CENTCOM’s forward headquarters, the nerve centre of Operation Epic Fury. American bombers launched from Qatari soil. Iran retaliated against the LNG facility down the road. The same government that provided the runway for the war is now absorbing the economic consequences. QatarEnergy declared force majeure. Ras Laffan sustained extensive damage. Seventeen percent of Qatar’s 77 million tonne capacity is structurally impaired. CEO Saad al-Kaabi told Reuters repairs could take three to five years. Twenty billion dollars in annual revenue is offline.
The Prime Minister of a country that enabled the operation is publicly questioning who benefits from it while his national energy company faces half a decade of impaired production.
That is not ambiguity. That is a fracture.
The fracture runs through the entire Gulf alliance system. Saudi Arabia hosts Prince Sultan Air Base and absorbed Iranian missiles on Riyadh. The UAE hosts Al Dhafra and lost Shah and Habshan to zero. Bahrain hosts the Fifth Fleet and declared partial force majeure. Kuwait hosts Camp Arifjan and is watching two refineries burn. Every host provided the military infrastructure. Every host is absorbing economic retaliation. And the most outspoken just asked, on camera, whether the country benefiting from degrading Iran at zero direct cost is the same country whose allies are paying the full price.
The market implications are immediate. If Qatar’s political establishment is signalling frustration with the cost-benefit distribution of this war, the assumption that Gulf states will indefinitely absorb strikes while providing bases becomes fragile. A frustrated host is a conditional host. Conditional basing changes the calculus for every military planner who assumed Al Udeid was permanent.
The LNG implications are structural. A multi-year force majeure on contracts to Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China is not a delivery delay. It is a repricing of the global gas map. JERA’s CEO said there is no spare bridge capacity. Asian spot LNG doubled to $24 to $25 per MMBtu. European TTF surged 68 to 85 percent. BASF and Yara are cutting fertiliser output. The facility that feeds them may not fully recover until 2029 or later.
The diplomatic signal and the infrastructure damage are now the same story. Qatar’s PM is not merely commenting on the war. He is repricing Qatar’s willingness to absorb its consequences. The country that houses the command centre and the country that exports 20 percent of the world’s LNG are the same country. And its leader just told the world, in one sentence, that the arrangement may no longer be worth the cost.
Full analysis:
open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86
BREAKING: The world thought Hormuz was an oil story. Then it became an LNG story. If the damage assessment holds, it becomes a civilisation-input story that lasts half a decade. There is a difference between a shipping shock and a capacity shock that the market has not yet priced. A shipping shock traps molecules. The oil exists, the gas exists, the tankers are anchored, and when the strait reopens the molecules flow again. A capacity shock destroys molecules. The liquefaction trains that convert gas into LNG are physically damaged. The molecules cannot be produced even if every ship in the world is available to carry them. QatarEnergy’s CEO Saad al-Kaabi told Reuters that damage to Ras Laffan is severe. Repairs to impaired liquefaction capacity could take three to five years. Force majeure was declared on March 4 and has since escalated as the damage assessment worsened through March 18 and 19. Long-term contract buyers including Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China face multi-year delivery disruptions. Shell declared force majeure on cargoes it resells from QatarEnergy. The market must now confront a possibility it has refused to model: that roughly 17 percent of Qatar’s 77 million tonne per annum capacity is not delayed but structurally impaired. JERA’s CEO stated that the global LNG market does not have the spare capacity to bridge the gap if Hormuz-linked supply is meaningfully lost. That single sentence reprices everything. If the replacement molecules do not exist in sufficient volume, the adjustment mechanism is not alternative supply. It is fuel switching, demand destruction, and rationing by balance-sheet strength. Rich buyers can pay more. Poor buyers cannot. The poor buyers are already breaking. Vietnam’s diesel is up 40 to 59 percent. Australia’s petrol is up 70 cents per litre. Sri Lanka is rationing fuel with QR codes at 15 litres per car per week, a four-day workweek, and Wednesday school closures. India raised LPG prices while importing 85 percent of its crude through a strait that is 90 percent shut. Gulf air cargo collapsed 79 percent. Jet fuel surged 58 percent. IndiGo and Akasa imposed surcharges. Vietnam Airlines warned of shortages from April. Ninety-five countries have reported petrol price increases since February 28. Ras Laffan is not just LNG. It is helium, urea, methanol, polyethylene, and sulfur. The downstream cascade from a multi-year Qatari impairment runs through semiconductor fabrication, pharmaceutical synthesis, phosphate fertiliser production, food packaging, and desalination. The facility that is damaged produces the molecules that four billion people depend on for chips, medicine, fertiliser, plastic, and drinking water. Europe’s post-2022 gas security was built on Qatari LNG replacing Russian pipelines. A structural impairment does not merely make gas expensive. It makes gas unavailable to industry. That is how an LNG shock becomes a deindustrialisation shock. BASF and Yara are already cutting fertiliser output. Russian LNG fills the gap at 18 to 22 percent of European imports. The country Europe sanctioned is the country Europe now depends on because the country Europe trusted was struck in a war Europe refused to join. Anyone arguing this resolves quickly now carries the burden of proof. They must explain where the replacement molecules come from when the world’s largest LNG hub is physically impaired, the strait is commercially closed, and the CEO of Asia’s biggest power buyer says there is no bridge. The market priced a shipping delay. The evidence demands a capacity repricing. The difference between those two words is measured in years, in trillions of dollars, and in whether the lights stay on. Full analysis: open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
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