고정된 트윗
If we study #Bitcoin on the monthly timeframe, a clear behavioural pattern appears after every major bull market top.
Bitcoin macro cycles continue to show a repeating rhythms. not identical, but structurally similar after each major all-time high.
In 2017, BTC topped near 20K and then entered a prolonged correction that lasted about 13 months, with an 80% drawdown and multiple failed relief rallies before a true bottom formed. It wasn’t a quick crash and recovery it was a long distribution and accumulation process.
In 2021, BTC topped again near 69K and followed a very similar path. The decline stretched roughly 14 months, printed a 75%+ drop, and included several strong bounces that trapped late buyers. The real reversal only started once price reclaimed strong macro support.
Now in the 2024–2025 structure, BTC pushed into a new ATH zone around 126K and rejected near long-term trendline resistance.
Across all three cycles, the pattern is consistent: parabolic move into highs → rejection → multi-month corrective phase → relief rallies → base building at major support.
A corrective bounce toward 90K–100K is still possible and wouldn’t be unusual similar counter-trend rallies happened in past cycles but that would more likely be a relief move or lower high rather than an immediate launch to new highs.
The most important area to watch, in my opinion, is the $55K–$45K support zone. This region aligns with prior breakout structure and higher-timeframe demand and would be a logical place for deeper re-accumulation and the foundation of the next long-term uptrend.
Based on historical structure, I’m not expecting new ATHs soon. Markets typically need both time and price correction before the next major expansion phase begins. Patience around macro support has historically offered better risk-reward than chasing late-stage highs.
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