AJ

New analysis

@Trace_Cohen Why are you mad? You’re their service provider. The venture model is gone. VC is knowledge work. And access will continue to deteriorate in value.

Family office: we don’t like funds bc of the fees and carry. Also family office: we love late stage direct investing in multi layer SPVs

In 2006, every section of Craigslist was a $1b marketplace startup waiting to happen. In 2026, every section of PWC's website is a $10b AI startup waiting to happen.

The talent level at hedge funds is so far above the talent at VC funds. when they interact it's like watching a human speak to a gaboon

$BTC - Great reaction form liquidity zone I've been targeting for a week. A weekly close above $80k would give me high confidence that we are nearing a local bottom. I wouldn't be surprised if they run the lows a few times to capture more liquidity, but again, I think this is a good area to scale into spot longs.

@TicTocTick I love ya tic - Amen

Entire world is for yours to win- by spreading your ideas & your influence. Without a single shot being fired. Statesmen realize this instinctively & hence promote “soft power”. Thugs use force & violence. May be useful in short term, poison ☠️ in the long run.

To clarify: we are now in the “electronic trading has just been introduced” phase where retail traders/bootstrappers/small caps are making an incredible amount of money due to rampant market inefficiency And next comes the “high-frequency trading phase” where sophisticated AI entities with 1000 tentacles suck the alpha out of every crevice, making incredible profits and pushing out retail The latter has not been built yet, and it likely needs to be built from the ground up—it won’t be Google. You could build it. We are building Spellbook to thrive in this future.

Oh and it'll get bigger, better, and crazier than ever because there will be a lot more of us to entertain post-labor abundance... 10 years out

Hot and cold take, the entertainment industry is entirely designed to keep the majority non-productive class happy and pre-occupied. Its base incentive is just that… the scaled bread and circuses.

@brianryhuang VCs already got all of the alpha man, hate to break it to you. 3x exit liquidity.

i'm pretty risk-averse with investments and have never touched crypto, but i'm just saying i'm 3x levering on my life savings into the anthropic IPO next year

you’re not even exaggerating. There really are two versions of you and they live on opposite sides of a tiny number on a settings screen. Below three hours and you start walking like someone from a black and white film. You read real sentences. You notice light. You remember you have thoughts that aren’t just reactions. You can sit with a coffee and stare out a window at 08:41 like you’re cultivating depth. You text people back like a person. You listen to music and actually hear it. You get that old-soul feeling, like you’re too aware for this era, like your brain belongs in a slower world where attention wasn’t constantly being auctioned off. You become the kind of human who has an inner life. Then it creeps past three hours and suddenly you’re not a person, you’re a device accessory. You’re sprawled on the bed at 23:17, screen six inches from your face, thumb doing that dead little flick, eyes half open. The feed is feeding. Your brain is not thinking, it’s absorbing. You watch someone else’s life, then another, then another. A hot take, a thirst trap, a war clip, an ad, a meme, a baby, a breakup, a recipe, a tweet about capitalism, a skincare routine. None of it sticks. All of it leaves residue. you can feel your brain atrophying in real time. Not in a dramatic way. In the small humiliations. You open a book and the words slide off. You try to watch a movie and you reach for your phone during the first quiet scene because silence now feels like boredom and boredom now feels like pain. You try to write and your mind keeps trying to turn it into a tweet. You can’t hold a thought long enough to build anything with it. Your attention is a room with a broken door. Everything blows through. So you make a joke and call it “ironypilled e-girl on the digital grindset” because humor is the only socially acceptable way to admit you’re drowning. what’s actually happening under your joke. High screen time isn’t just “I got distracted.” It’s usually a signal that you’re trying not to feel something. Because when life feels even slightly sharp, the phone becomes anesthesia. It makes time pass without you having to inhabit it. It gives you stimulation without commitment. Company without intimacy. Drama without consequence. It fills the space where your own thoughts would show up, and your own thoughts are sometimes unbearable. The phone is a mood regulator. People pretend it’s entertainment. It’s not. It’s a pacifier for adults. That’s why the “old soul” version of you feels so good. It’s not just less screen. It’s more presence. It’s your nervous system finally getting a break from being poked every twelve seconds. It’s your mind returning to its natural speed. You stop living in reaction mode. You start having original thoughts again. You become capable of boredom, which is secretly the gateway drug to creativity. and the “e-girl grindset” version isn’t evil. She’s not lazy. She’s tired. She’s overstimulated. Under-resourced. Avoiding. Seeking. Numbing. She’s trying to scratch an itch that can’t be scratched by content. She’s trying to get a hit of meaning from a slot machine of micro dopamine. She’s trying to feel alive without doing anything that risks failure. So she scrolls. And the comedy is that both versions of you feel completely real when you’re in them. When you’re at 2h 47m, you swear you’ve transcended. When you’re at 6h 13m, you swear you’ve become a creature of the feed and this is just who you are now. neither is who you are. They’re states. Your “old soul” is not an aesthetic. It’s what happens when your attention isn’t being harvested. Your “e-girl grindset” is not a personality. It’s what happens when you’re using the internet to manage your nervous system. the reason the 3-hour line feels like a moral boundary is because your brain is telling you something true: past a certain point, the phone stops being a tool and starts being a habitat. You don’t use it. You live in it.

building a company is akin to rolling a massive boulder without knowing the terrain ahead. it might be downhill. it might be flat. it might be straight uphill into gravel. you don’t get a map & you don’t get friction coefficients up front. the initial 0 to 1 is pure suffering. you’re alone applying force with near zero feedback. there is no momentum, no spectators, & no proof if it even moves. most people quit here because the boulder feels almost imaginary. then at some point if you’re right, lucky, & stubborn enough it starts to shift. almost imperceptibly at first. the momentum appears. gravity starts helping instead of fighting. & every effort compounds. this is the point when it becomes so so fun. borderline euphoric.

The film industry could be so successful if it attracted the capital of the technology industry with captivating stories of meaningful hero’s journeys vs rehashed sequels, pessimist, and politically driven crap.

In 2026, Venture Capital will eat Private Equity It used to be that venture capital and private equity lived on two separate planets: VC = San Francisco PE = New York They targeted completely different universes of companies: --> PE - people heavy biz services, stable/low growth, predictable cashflows --> VC - tech-forward, high growth, high risk, massive TAM What was the playbook for B2B VC backed startups? --> Grow to unicorn scale by selling to other early adopter tech companies, then Fortune 500s XX> SMB and mid-market services - think field services, IT staffing, accounting, construction, recruiting - were always tough to sell into for startups Why? -->Thin margins, high labor costs, and small IT budgets >> But as AI eats labor, these businesses are in play << There are 3 ways where VC and PE are colliding: 1/ Private Equity funds will become channel partners for startups. PE funds are focused on financial engineering and cost optimization. Startups building AI products and services can sell across their portfolio to automate the backoffice and uplevel sales and marketing. PE funds have made AI their #1 strategic priority and have hired central leaders to oversee their portfolio adoption efforts 2/ PE portfolio pages are a startup idea menu Private equity will often buyout vertical software companies whose TAM didn’t allow venture scaled returns. As software evolves from data storage and collaboration to agents taking action and completing work, AI should massively expand the TAM for these categories. Founders will set their sights on unseating these legacy incumbents backed by private equity. All they have to do is look at their portfolio pages for category ideas 3/ AI Rollups This is one of the most direct ways that VC is eating PE VC backed AI platform businesses are not just selling software but acquiring legacy business services companies to own the value chain end to end. As an example, our @speedrun company AgentAstra is acquiring freight forwarding services businesses with mostly debt and integrating AI deeply into their operations These companies aim to increase margins by at least 2x and make them “AI native” tl;dr - While the west coast, Patagonia-wearing VCs and the east coast, PE suits used to live in different universes, in 2026 with AI, I believe, those worlds converge

Sell everything. This is definitely the top now. I mean it.

Veritas

when QT stops, FED rates enter their final phase of the cutting cycle and the yields continue to trend down individual stocks, charts that bled, while indexes and big safe caps trended up, will have their time to shine SPX will have its 40% discount while these stocks, small caps and cryptos will have higher lows across the board The only thing I'm battling with is.. will this come into April-May or November-December 2026 (maybe even January 2027) If you you follow me for some time you already know what I'm saying Ta-ta - Bear Hitler

robinhood had a partnership with kalshi for their prediction markets they saw that it was so popular that they abandoned kalshi and are doing their own prediction market now kalshi legit lost 85% of their volume now, almost everyone i know trades on polymarket kalshi trying to capture crypto market share by paying decent influencers, but are they converting? i don't see evidence of that polymarket will probably be the dominating prediction market for the foreseeable future

I’m not going to lie, Eric Trump sounds like he’s about to go to War with the big financial institutions. This is absolutely wild. 🤯

@beffjezos Who made this video? Awesome

Think from first principles. Ignore the friction and inertia of beliefs of crowds. Don't wait for permission. Go forth and build.

@thenarrator How did you make this market map? Super cool

Prediction markets aren’t a niche anymore they’re becoming an economy