morning market thoughts If you start allocating against major resistance, at the far end of the range, you’re basically: → Positioning yourself where the probability of downside or chop is highest → Positioning yourself with the worst possible risk/reward (More on the upside we had and this matter: x.com/damskotrades/s…) Also bad imo is also turning into a perma bear while the macro market still points up, letting temporary downside or chop from a specific (even if key) local level blind you from the opportunities this market still offers when the market turns. It's basically the same thing as turning bullish at the resistance after massive upside, but now at the support. I’m still partially allocated from bids in April/May around the mid-range, when we had the deviation and local trend break (in green). Took partial profits (HYPE/ZEC/PUMP) after the rally into the range highs but kept some leftovers. For now, I’ll stay cautious and protect while we’re at the range high resistance, not adding until we either: → Get a local trend break in the red box below → Or break out above the macro range high resistance (also market the last local trend breaks after local downtrends within the uptrend) Personally, I’m still a macro bull, just careful about where I deploy. At resistance or in chop zones, it’s not the time to spray positions. Protect until it’s time to deploy again. When that moment comes, the space will likely be utterly bearish or sidelined in disbelief, and you’ll probably feel the same. Stick to your setup, have a clear invalidation, and execute. Don't get chopped up before easier days arrive again. Last time in April, we had a long local downtrend into the mid-range, followed by a clear deviation, reclaim, and local trend break. Clear invalidation below, clear target at the range high. Ideally, we get something similar again, though it doesn’t have to reach the mid-range. It could also form around the 0.75 level or even break out above the range high. From here on I: → Stay macro bull, but cautious and patient with adding new positions → Stay macro bull without turning into a perma bear — it’ll blind you from spotting outperformers and stop you from executing when the time comes → Keep trading outperformers like ZEC (still like PUMP and VIRTUALS if they give a trigger), but treat them as trades with tight invalidation (lower timeframe triggers) → Stay closely tapped into the space to not miss opportunities like XPL or MEGA (maybe BASE next?) → Create watchlists with tokens showing early or relative strength in the current market. Likely to continue to outperform. If you made it until here, gm fam.
