@LillyL464172 Leading in the sense that it's the strongest index? I haven't.
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CyclesFan
20.8K posts
CyclesFan
@CyclesFan
I don't have a Telegram account and don't sell newsletters.
가입일 Nisan 2014
441 팔로잉57K 팔로워
@CyclesFan Hey, have you ever looked at cycles where $IWM is leading? Just curious if there are any nuances there.
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$SPX - Closed below the 200 day MA which is a red flag but I'm still bullish for 3 reasons:
1. We are 79 trading days from the November low which is equal to the duration of the last 16 week cycle.
2. It didn't break the November low.
3. The daily candle is green which favors an up day tomorrow and if tomorrow is an up day it will likely regain the 200 day MA.
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@_littleblinky_ In this case it's not necessary because it's not a major low, just a multi week low that will be broken later this year. Also, there are other favorable factors like various bullish divergences and the spike in the put/call ratios.
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@CyclesFan Hello legend... where do you stand on the "volume spike" question? Many furus claiming that it is crucial for a bottom...
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@NoFNoGProfit Not necessarily. A close above the opening level may still be bullish for tomorrow.
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$SPX - Made a marginal lower low today but still hasn't hit the 200 day MA at 6615. We're 78 trading days from the November low so the market is still in the timeframe for a 16 week cycle low. There's also a RSI bullish divergence so the market is bottoming here despite all the noise.
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@EarthOddysey It's too early to say. We'll find out by the end of April.
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$Gold - I want to remind you that the 14 month RSI closed at 95.67 at the end of February, its most overbought level in history. If you can't stomach an 11% drawdown and cry about "manipulation" or "suppression" or say that the decline is "unjustified", you're in the wrong business and should stay away of financial assets.
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@CyclesFan Aren’t you giving the case that there are A LOT of upside left? I mean, even if it only goes x2 from here it will be very bad for most sectors.
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This is hyperbolic bullshit. In 1973-1980 during the Arab oil embargo on the U.S and its allies, the price of crude oil spiked from $3.56 to $39.50. That was a 1000% increase in the price of crude oil. That is obviously not going to repeat this time.
x.com/KobeissiLetter…
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
This is absolutely insane: The world is quite literally facing what appears to be the largest energy crisis in history. US crude oil futures are now trading at a $20+/barrel DISCOUNT to Brent, also one of the largest on record. As the US increases production and taps into reserves, the EU is facing a full out energy crisis. European natural gas prices are up another +30% today and physical crude oil prices in Oman and elsewhere are trading at $150+/barrel. In other words, the gap between Oman and US prices now stands at ~70%, or ~$70+ per barrel. It has become so bad for Europe that the market is now pricing-in 2 interest rate HIKES in 2026, even as the US removes sanctions on Russian oil. US rate cuts in 2026 are almost entirely priced-out as a result with Core PPI inflation on PRE-WAR data rising to its highest since February 2023. The entire global economy just took a complete 180 degree turn in 3 weeks. The next few months are going to be historic.
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@m0d3rnpr0bl3ms How is my oil call way off when WTI is trading around $96?
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@CyclesFan 💯 accurate on this call. Your oil call is way off tho and the affect it will have on indices
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$Silver is trading below its 100 day MA for the 1st time since its April 2025 low. However, I don't think it's relevant since it retested the February low earlier today, so unless it breaks below 64 it probably made a multi week low today and should move higher into April.
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Every time oil analysts say that you know that's never going to happen.
x.com/Polymarket/sta…
Polymarket@Polymarket
JUST IN: Oil analysts are saying they “wouldn’t be surprised” if oil went to $200-$250 a barrel.
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@hajiyev_rashad What logical explanation you're looking for when 14 month RSI was above 95 at the end of February?
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There is no logical explanation to gold's sharp and fast decline. Gold broke all support levels. I think "they" are rushing to shakeout as many position as possible as soon as possible before the inevitable epic rally...
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@PilotDanOnX @rexstocks A divergence is a divergence. Some of them work. Some of them don't. A divergence has to be mentioned before the up moves occurs. There's no point in mentioning a divergence after the fact.
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@CyclesFan @rexstocks I’m not a genius but I’m also not posting fake dishonest wishes to give people false hope. It may bounce here at the 200 DMA but divergence needs to be confirmed like an RSI downtrend break
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@CyclesFan @rexstocks Bro this is NOT divergence. The RSI’s are basically equal. If anything it just recharged some for lower
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