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Hey all. I published BTC cycle macro top and bottom indicators on TradingView. Check them out and let me know what you think.
Bitcoin (BTC) Top and Bottom indicators [Logue] - #BLX TradingView tradingview.com/chart/BLX/rvpV…
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Da Prof
1.8K posts
Da Prof
@Da_Prof1367
Hope to help people financially by creating indicators with true utility. I utilize my own indicators to explain how I'm investing.
가입일 Mayıs 2021
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Unless they can save $SPX on the weekly (i.e., a close above the lower red line by the end of the day), it looks like we are headed to a 5-handle. I have been buying some small bags of individual stocks which have been down bad, so I'm hoping they hold up well during this time.
Da Prof@Da_Prof1367
So, I'm toying with the idea that we don't go straight down based on my $BTC bias. I wonder if we go down and then get a bounce to form a shoulder first. Then more downside. Just a thought I'm toying with that I wanted to get out.
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$MSFT will likely soon be in the MALAN zone. It is being caught up in the "AI eating software" narrative. It will take time for us to ditch our Excel for something AI vibe coded, so $MSFT isn't going away. I'm watching this intently and have a significant investment planned.
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@CryptoProfitMan Note that I have been heavily deployed for my expected run up for all of crypto through at least mid-April. Depending on how price looks, I'll likely start to hedge for some downside. Sell in May and go away???
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@CryptoProfitMan I think so for this pair. For BTCUSD, I'm still keeping open the possibility of a sweep of the $60k low, which may also mean a sweep for this pair. The BGL says that we will have BTCUSD downside starting around mid/late April. My base case is that drop will form a double bottom.
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With the recent drop in gold and strength in $BTC, we may have seen the reversal indicted in the quoted tweet. The SSI-1M has been good at catching these reversals. When I use the XAU chart, instead of GLD from the original post, it caught the last two bottoms; this may be #3.
Da Prof@Da_Prof1367
Will there be a rotation from $XAU (Gold) into $BTC? I'm quite sure that answer is no, at least not directly. But, there should be. $BTC / $XAU (Gold) has hit extreme low risk on the SSI. This has only happened once before in 2019. $BTC is still up 500% vs Gold from then.
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...additionally it is a nice round number: $100. All signs point to a bottoming process starting here. I may add some more to my bag if I see positive signs. Of course, if it breaks definitively and sustainably below this support area, probably as low as $84, I'll cut it.
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The reason I dove in here is that it is below the primary MALAN zone, it has triggered the SSI-1M in the extreme low risk region, there is plenty of support in this area, and it just filled a daily gap from long ago with no other gap below and a massive one starting at $215.
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I ended up getting a smallish bag of $DUOL (Duolingo). I can totally see AI ultimately eating this company, but I think in the interim that the narrative of AI killing all software has gotten out of hand. Many of these companies have strong brands that won't go away that easily.
Da Prof@Da_Prof1367
Here is a MALAN for an asset that is coming into the bottoming target and triggering a monthly SSI extreme low risk in confluence: $DUOL (Duolingo). I'll be monitoring closely. This is an asset I might buy at these levels, I just want to see how price develops in this zone.
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I've created a nice position in $NIO based on a long consolidation in the MALAN area, some monthly SSI triggers, plus a great trader's call. It looks to be breaking the downtrend with a higher high and low on the monthly. Higher oil prices = more interest in EVs. 3D chess.
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I grabbed some $MOH (Molina Healthcare) here at the MALAN target. Specifically, I see consolidation at the target area in confluence with the SSI-1M "extreme low risk" triggers. This may take a while to play out (as with any monthly indicator), but I think $MOH is bottomed.
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@Sky_icaros The BGL? Yes. For this cycle, the 72-d BGL has been money. Only maybe one time did it not do a good job. That was the ETF pump.
I haven't found a setting where it worked well before this cycle.
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@Da_Prof1367 Have you tested the correlation of that indicator against btcusd price action ?
What’s the historical data ?
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[ $BTC UPDATE]
The path is still playing out. I expect continued higher on $BTC until at least the 72d-BGL top on April 16. There seems to be a lag on tops (and some bottoms), so I'd target an early May top. The BGL is falling off a cliff currently. Sell in May, go away?
Da Prof@Da_Prof1367
[ $BTC UPDATE] I haven't updated the path recently since nothing big has happened since the drop. Recently, I see signs of daily low sweeps, so I expect us to move up soon in confluence with the BGL.
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[UPDATE]
We had a nice bounce from the MALAN target for TOTAL, TOTAL2 (shown), and TOTAL3. Sometimes we go directly up from the MALAN target and sometimes we go back to the target zone one more time. My money is on the latter. I'm targeting May to revisit based on the BGL.
Da Prof@Da_Prof1367
As I review the MALAN analysis across the crypto charts, I am becoming more bullish (at least for a short-term bounce). Each of Total, Total2, and Total3 have all hit their main MALAN targets. This is in confluence with the BGL. I see a bigger bounce than the previous range soon.
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@CryptoProfitMan I'll keep updating the path on X as the BGL continues to update, so you can follow along with me here.
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@CryptoProfitMan I've consistently described this as a major correction in an extended cycle. So, I'm not call this a cycle bottom. Semantics...I know. But, I do think we go back to sweep the recent low, then up from there (see path). The BGL can't see past 72d so we'll have to wait and see.
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@Da_Prof1367 The cycle-bottom is "in" before August then ?
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For those that read my replies to myself, I can't tell you how rare it is for an indicator to have predictive power like this. It is not perfect, but nothing is. I'm sure the 72-d predictive power will break at some point, but I'm going to squeeze every ounce of juice from it.
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@Da_Prof1367 Thank you. I want to write to you in dms, but your messages are closed. It would be easier if you followed me
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WTF do I do now? I was hoping to DCA at the MALAN levels for some time. Now, what I hoped to be a big bag, has been left behind. $HIMS...why did you do this to me? I hope some of you went heavy at the target.
Da Prof@Da_Prof1367
$HIMS went into the primary MALAN zone. I've added my first bit of this asset and will be DCAing in this zone. As long as the price behaves, I plan to make this a fairly large part of my portfolio and will add hard if we get another SSI-1M trigger. The first one was a banger.
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