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So exciting to _finally_ get to talk about the US 2020 FB and IG Election Project!
A few notes from my perspective as a methodological collaborator kind of on the border between the academic and the Meta teams. 🧵
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Drew Dimmery
852 posts
Drew Dimmery
@DrewDim
Prof. of Data Science for the Common Good @Hertie_DSLab // @nyuniversity Politics PhD // former @Meta Core Data Science, @ds_vienna // he/him
가입일 Nisan 2009
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Next a foray into refreshing and updating the workings of my website and a reflection on why this is Good: ddimmery.com/posts/website-…
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I'm back to blogging on my own pixels. I should remember to actually share posts on the microblogs (I believe this is the main thing they're good for). First, a post laying out why I won't be blogging on Substack: ddimmery.com/posts/back-to-…
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RCTs are good, but not (just) because they make the statistics easy. open.substack.com/pub/drewdimmer…
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The US2020 Project was not independent (and that's good) open.substack.com/pub/drewdimmer…
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Drew Dimmery 리트윗함
How The Washington Post’s forecast will track 2024 election results
Like in previous cycles we'll be running our live election model to add context to results that are coming in. But we have a few updates this year!
washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/…
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Drew Dimmery 리트윗함
Welche Koalitionen könnten nach den Wahlen in Sachsen und Thüringen anstehen?
Zusammengefasst: in Sachsen könnte es sehr schwer werden, eine Regierung ohne BSW zu bilden - und in Thüringen beinahe unmöglich.
Auf @zeitonline mit simulierten Wahlausgängen: zeit.de/politik/deutsc…
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Welcome #ICML2024 to Vienna! If you work on causality/CSS and want to chat, hit me up. I'm also happy to share recommendations based on a few years living here.
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Drew Dimmery 리트윗함
Our polling average topline takeaway: Trump is leading in 5 of the 7 battleground states that are most likely to determine the outcome of the election, but PA, WI and MI are within a typically-sized polling error.
w/ @dianesaysword, @kt_prry & Luis Melgar
washingtonpost.com/elections/inte…
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To assert democratic control over large online platforms we need rigorous impact assessments like the US2020 project. This is the only way we can make sure we respond to the real societal harms they may cause.
Hertie School@thehertieschool
Do Facebook, Instagram and co. lead to polarisation? @DrewDim debunks this myth: deactivating accounts before the 2020 US election had little effect on political polarisation. People who logged off were even less likely to believe misinformation. 🔗 bit.ly/3z8Pj8K
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Drew Dimmery 리트윗함
New article from the U.S. 2020 Facebook & Instagram Election Study in @PNASNews (academic team led by @HuntAllcott & Gentzkow): Deactivation of FB/IG for 6 weeks before the 2020 election reduced online participation but otherwise had mostly null effects pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pn…
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Drew Dimmery 리트윗함
***Academic Job*** I'm hiring a post-doc (starting this fall) as part of building out a lab model re: conflict and development at Emory. Open broadly but Asia is bulk of agenda right now. ABDs & recent grads please submit apps by June 15th apply.interfolio.com/145540
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Tired: constant marginal effects
Wired: maximum marginal effects at p=0.5
Inspired: add a parameter for where marginal effects are maximized
Are they not teaching the kids about scobit these days? Embarrassing
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@arthur_spirling Miguel Hernán has a great paper on this point: ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
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btw, if you read the thread, OP recants from "reduces" to "associated with" and it's classic "causal two-step" per Implication 1 of our WP:
arthurspirling.org/documents/what…
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4-5 cups increases your risk of thinking about the plausibility of conditional ignorability, so be careful with dosage
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Drew Dimmery 리트윗함
📆 Curious about @thehertieschool? Join us in Berlin for our Open Day this Friday!
🤝 Visit our campus to explore our programmes, talk to our students, and get a sneak peek into our courses.
Register here: hertie-school.org/en/open-day
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Drew Dimmery 리트윗함
Super cool thread on racial depolarization (what I'd call it, rather than realignment) in US politics. A bit of additional context from diving into similar data:
John Burn-Murdoch@jburnmurdoch
NEW 🧵: American politics is in the midst of a racial realignment. I think this is simultaneously one of the most important social trends in the US today, and one of the most poorly understood.
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Great article about our research infrastructure (or lack thereof) for studying the internet #post-heading" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">thebulletin.org/2024/03/how-to…
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Drew Dimmery 리트윗함
🚨 Job alert 🚨 Join us in forecasting the next federal election, and in finding out what forecasts do to voters and candidates! Plus, do a PhD at the Data Science Lab in Berlin. DM me for any questions.
PhD at the Hertie School@Hertie_PhD
PhD Opportunity!🔊We are looking for a part-time Research Associate/Doctoral Candidate to join @simonsaysnothin as part of the DFG Research Project "Election Forecasts for the German Federal Election 2025". Check the application call for further details: hertie-school.dvinci-easy.com/en/p/en/jobs/8…
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Really nice piece by @JustinSandefur worth reading. I particularly found the history of making the case very interesting:
asteriskmag.com/issues/05/pepf…
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Drew Dimmery 리트윗함
Welcome to Hertie, @DrewDim ! 🤝 The @Hertie_DSLab Professor of Data Science for the Common Good begins teaching today.
"Algorithms, code and machine learning are an increasingly large part of how our world works. I'm excited to empower students to understand these topics!"
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