Elliot The Trader

Stop trying to nail the exact bottom. It’s a fool’s game built on fear. The big money isn’t timing the dip — it’s positioned and thinking in years. Zoom out. The game is longer than today’s candle. Patience or panic — which one are you running on? 👇

Agree on relative strength. But altcoin rebounds should be adjusted for dilution. $NEAR has ~75% of supply released and still emits new supply monthly. That means recreating previous-cycle prices requires more capital than the chart alone suggests. Price action matters. Tokenomics decide the fuel required

Strong assets will come back stronger than other assets. $NEAR is already up 20% from the lows, while other assets are taking a lot of time to get into at least some form of a bounce. If #Bitcoin breaks $65,000, I'll assume that $NEAR will be running back towards the highs, and other assets are going to get more momentum in there.

@KobeissiLetter Another reminder: peace headlines are cheap, confirmation is expensive. The market has heard “deal soon” all week. It’s still getting strikes instead.

BREAKING: The Israeli Air Force says it conducted strikes in western and central Iran.

BREAKING: 🇰🇷 South Korea's KOSPI index plunges by over 8%, hits circuit breaker.

$BTC WEEKLY We have potential bullish divergence coming out of oversold RSI. Need this week to close with a clear elbow up on price and RSI. If this happens, we have the second confirmed bullish divergence ever on the weekly chart - the first was FTX. This is only the 4th time it has hit oversold on the weekly chart.

BREAKING: South Korea’s stock market has been halted after falling -8.4% at the open.

This is constructive. BTC swept the February low, reclaimed the 200W SMA, and closed the week back above a key long-term level. If buyers defend this zone early in the week, the market could shift quickly from fear to relief. The reclaim is the setup. Follow-through is the trigger.

Bitcoin closed the week above the 200W SMA after sweeping the low from February

South Korea is flashing a risk-off signal. $EWY is extending its breakdown, led by pressure in technology stocks — and this matters far beyond Korea. This is not just a local equity story. Korea is deeply tied to semiconductors, global trade, liquidity cycles and risk appetite. If this weakness continues, the question becomes simple: Is this an isolated correction… or the first crack in global risk assets? Bitcoin, tech, semis, Nasdaq — all live inside the same liquidity wave. When one part of the risk complex starts breaking, you pay attention.

@KobeissiLetter Another “deal is going on” headline. Oil: “are you sure?” Markets can trade hope for a few candles, but energy usually demands confirmation.

BREAKING: President Trump says Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will have "no choice" but to accept a US deal with Iran, because he "calls the shots," per FT. Details include: 1. "I call the shots. I call all the shots. He [Netanyahu] doesn’t call the shots," Trump said 2. Trump said today's missile strikes by Iran will not impact the deal 3. Trump said he believes "the deal is going on" 4. Trump said that Iran’s strikes had not changed his desire to conclude US-Iran negotiations Oil prices are trading higher.

Bitcoin week ahead Monthly: bears still control the structure. Weekly: loss of the $65.4K prior low opens the door for a third leg lower. Daily: downside looks stretched, with RSI, stochastic and volatility already near stress zones. So the market has two paths: continuation lower into the third wave short-term relief before the broader downtrend resumes The signal is clear: Monthly pressure. Weekly breakdown. Daily exhaustion. This week matters. #bitcoin #crypto

@CryptoMichNL Everyone wants lower prices until lower prices arrive. That’s why market bottoms are not built by comfort. They’re built by fear, exhaustion and forced hesitation. The crowd always wants the dip. Until the dip becomes real

When #Bitcoin was trading at $100k, people were dying to be buying the asset at $80k. Price fell to $80k, people were dying to be buying the asset at $60k. Price fell to $60k, now people are dying to be buying at $30-40k. They won't, as the fear takes over. Moral of the story: simply DCA when there's mass blood in the streets.

@KobeissiLetter Fifth “deal is coming” headline in a week. Markets want de-escalation, but they also need confirmation. Until missiles stop moving, every peace headline is just another volatility candle.

BREAKING: President Trump says the US and Iran are "close to a deal" as a third wave Iranian ballistic missiles is fired toward Israel, per Fox News.

@AltcoinDaily Bitcoin can absolutely go lower. But “can” is not the same as “likely.” The market doesn’t move because scary scenarios exist. It moves through liquidity, positioning, and structure. If BTC defends the lows and builds continuation, the bear case starts losing oxygen fast

"Bitcoin can't possibly fall any lower." Listen, I'm as long term bullish as the next guy but let me share with you the harsh reality of the current state of the crypto market: Bitcoin can ABSOLUTELY fall lower. The macro headwinds are there. Here is how it could happen THIS YEAR: JUNE: Mega IPOs/AI suck up capital JULY: Stocks crash & bear begins AUGUST: 10-year treasury hits 6% SEPTEMBER: Fed hikes rates OCTOBER: Clarity Act fails to pass NOVEMBER: Midterm election chaos DECEMBER: Black swan Look, I'm not saying this is likely to happen. In fact all of that playing out in the next 6 months would probably be extremely UNLIKELY. But... price could absolutely go lower. Like I said, I'm long term bullish, but it's important to plan for all scenarios. But what do you think?

@KobeissiLetter Put open interest doesn’t just show fear. It shows where the crowd is positioned. After a -14% move, the key question is simple: Are investors hedging early… or chasing protection late?

Demand for protection against a South Korean stock market decline is surging: Put option open interest in the South Korea ETF, $EWY, is up to ~880,000 contracts, the highest in at least 12 months. The total number of outstanding put option contracts has QUADRUPLED over the last several weeks. By comparison, call option open interest has increased +80,000 over the same period, to ~400,000 contracts, near the highest in a year. To put this into perspective, both put and call option open interest stood at ~50,000 contracts in January 2026. Meanwhile, $EWY declined -14% on Friday, posting its largest daily drop since the 2020 pandemic crash. Investors are rushing to hedge against a correction in South Korea.

@charliebilello The market wants rate cuts. But it wants credible rate cuts. A cut because inflation is cooling is bullish. A cut because political pressure is rising is credibility risk. Liquidity moves markets. Trust anchors the system

"I think that there's been plenty of room for a rate cut lately and now we've got a new guy in town at the Fed who hopefully is going to be able to get things to be seen that way." - Kevin Hassett (Director of the National Economic Council, White House) on CBNC, June 5

@CryptoMichNL The weekly close matters. But the real signal is the follow-through after it. A reclaim above the 200W MA means little if BTC can’t defend the lows and build continuation in the coming weeks

Obviously this weekly close is super important. You'd want to see #Bitcoin close above the 200-Week MA. However, it's more important on what the continuation is going to be in the coming weeks. If this is pure capitulation, you don't want to see new tests at the lows. If it's not, we're likely going to stall here for months and continue to fade away compared to the strength of all the other markets. In general, that won't be a great outlook for crypto and it's not entirely the type of pattern the markets were in briefly before the crash. For the first time in nearly 18 months, we've seen strong outperformances of altcoins across the board. That's why I think that we'll see the first scenario rather than the second.

This is exactly why markets remain fragile. Iran, oil, inflation expectations and Fed policy are all connected. One geopolitical headline can move energy prices, reprice inflation risk, push yields higher, and pressure risk assets. This is not just politics. It’s macro liquidity

*TRUMP TO NBC IF HE'D UNFREEZE IRAN ASSETS AS PART OF DEAL: NO *TRUMP SAYS NO PLANS TO WITHDRAW US TROOPS FOR TIME BEING: NBC *TRUMP SAYS WANTS MORE SURGICAL ISRAELI STRIKES ON HEZBOLLAH:NBC

@KobeissiLetter CPI is the market’s key sensitivity point this week. One print can reprice rate-cut expectations, Treasury yields, the dollar, and risk assets all at once. That’s why everything else is secondary: inflation still drives the macro wave

Key Events This Week: 1. May Existing Home Sales data - Tuesday 2. May CPI Inflation data - Wednesday 3. May PPI Inflation data - Thursday 4. OPEC Monthly Report - Thursday 5. MI Inflation Expectations data - Friday 6. MI Consumer Sentiment data - Friday All eyes are on inflation this week.

@AshCrypto You didn’t waste 5 years. You just learned one of the hardest lessons in markets: A strong narrative can still produce weak price action. Great technology and bullish structure are not the same thing.

Wasted 5 years of my life for this shit.

Retail is staring at the unrealized loss. Saylor is staring at the next wave. That’s the entire difference. He’s not trying to win the week. He’s positioning for the cycle.

@wallstreetbets Retail sees an unrealized loss. Saylor sees a cycle. That’s the difference. He’s not buying candles. He’s buying the next wave.

JUST IN: Michael Saylor is hinting at buying more $BTC Strategy is sitting on an $11.6B unrealized loss but he does not care he’s buying more