F1CBC
2.8K posts
@F1CBC
French Amateur Radio Operator since 1972. QRV : HF, VHF, UHF, SHF.....UKAC and NAC Activity....
There is a negative polarity coronal hole facing Earth right now sending fast solar wind in our direction. The fast solar wind will push a high-density region ahead of it called the co-rotating interaction region (CIR). This CIR, when it starts to affect Earth probably on October 10, may spark G1-G2 geomagnetic storms (Kp 5-6). High-latitude aurora watchers should be on high alert and mid-latitude chasers should be ready for potential sightings of aurora on Thursday night and into the weekend. The exact timing of when effects may *start* is not exact, but since science deals in Universal Time, October 10 starts tomorrow (Thursday) night for North America. CIRs also usually last over 24 hours, so we don't have to worry about an "impact time" like we do for CMEs. They take some time to ramp up. Who will see aurora? No one knows! This CIR and the high-speed stream behind it could be very prolific like it was the last time and spark a week-long aurorafest which involved the central U.S. and areas north, or it could contain mostly positive Bz and be a bit of a dud. We'll just have to wait and see! Unlike the last time, we probably won't have the combined influence of any CMEs acting alongside the CIR, so the effects may be a bit weaker and not spark G3-class geomagnetic storms like in September. My advice is just to follow along for all the latest info, learn about substorms and how to detect them, and bookmark some webcams close to you to monitor live conditions. I have resources on my website to help you with all of this including my free e-book on aurora chasing which is available to download when you sign up for my email list. I also have a calendar launching in TWO DAYS on the anniversary of the incredible October 10, 2024 G4 storm if you would like to support me and my efforts. Links: Substorm info: go.theauroraguy.com/substorm Webcams: go.theauroraguy.com/webcams Aurora chasing talk I gave last night (lots of good background info here): go.theauroraguy.com/WVACtalk Calendar Launching in TWO DAYS: go.theauroraguy.com/2026-aurora-ca… Email list where you can get my e-book for free: go.theauroraguy.com/email Thanks, everyone! Have a nice night and let's keep an eye on solar wind conditions over the coming days.
