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@FTX_Access provides regular market commentary, which is not informed by and does not represent the views of @FTX_official or @FTX_US. It is not investment advice. Feedback always welcome.
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FTX Access
2.1K posts
Nasdaq breaks Fridays highs. Cash open quickly erased overnight weakness
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👇👀👇
Ex NY Fed Pres Dudley Warns Wishful Thinking Won’t Help Fed Beat Inflation ... BBG
Investors have lately become optimistic that Fed
won’t have to tighten monetary policy much further
This wishful thinking is both unfounded & counterproductive.
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
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FUNDSTRAT: The @ClevelandFed’s inflation forecast “now shows July CPI tracking to 0.27% .. This is .. 3.24% annualized .. the lowest rate since January 2021 .. a collapse from the 9%-12% annualized rates seen in all of 2022 ..” - @fundstrat
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These trend reversals are squeezing large system funds
They've had big performance years but can assume they are turning like oil tankers from shorts in commods, equities, bonds and long USDs
In a quiet summer market this flow is big and doesn't care about fundamentals
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These will be important with the loosening in US FCI (over 50bps in July) and the Kashkari comments on Friday
Alex Krüger@krugermacro
On the Fed speakers side, watch out for Bullard on TUE (1845 EST) and Mester on THU (1200 EST). I don't expect anything major there. Expect them to repeat the Fed is not backing down on their fight against inflation, that inflation is priority #1, and the Fed is data dependent.
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USD index breaks last weeks low
USDJPY is leading, lower global yields takes pressure off the BOJ
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BREAKING: Press release by US House Speaker Pelosi lists she will visit Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan on upcoming trip, without mention of Taiwan.
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stocks went live on ftx.us like 3 days ago and now @Brett_FTX 's already expensed $3000 in cuff links and suspenders
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SPX closes:
April 29: 4131
May 29: 4158
July 29: 4130
Thanks for playing.
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Kashkari the first FOMC member to push back on market reaction. It shouldn't be surprising that they don't want financial conditions to ease
nytimes.com/2022/07/29/bus…
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As we approach merge, starting to see more commentary on the technical execution questions
Christine D. Kim@christine_dkim
The more I listen to these dev calls, the more I realize how complex the Merge transition is and with that comes a seemingly never ending list of edge cases for what could go wrong, While those odds are slim, they can compound.
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Summers speaks out against Powells neutral rates level
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Seems like people are underweight
GIF
Alf@MacroAlf
For context, this is the biggest two-days rally following a Fed hike since the 1970s.
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Last week, along with @FTX_access, we hosted Crypto Town Hall: The State of Play. 🎮
With insights from @Jihoz_Axie, @gabusch, @abearschmitt, @PlayIsFree, @pierskicks, and @amytongwu you don't want to miss this!
The replay is now available. ⬇️
twitter.com/i/spaces/1YqJD…
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U.S. STOCKS EXTEND FALL, NASDAQ DOWN 1.01 PCT
Markets having a hard timing making their mind up about the impact of bad data
With this level of Fed pricing it's harder for bad to be good. Unless you think Fed do less than 50/25/25
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10y yields testing the neckline of H+S pattern
After a brief drop equity market is resolving higher on GDP miss....impressive at this new level of Fed pricing
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