
Glenn Shadrake
38.5K posts












🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Tomorrow is the deadline. Here are the scenarios... Trump said Tuesday is "Power Plant Day and Bridge Day." Iran said no deal. Something has to give. Here's what could actually happen: Scenario 1: Iran blinks. Tehran accepts some version of a ceasefire, perhaps reopening Hormuz partially or allowing monitored shipping. Trump declares victory. The most optimistic outcome but the least likely given U.S. intelligence says Iran believes it has the upper hand and doesn't trust Washington at all. Scenario 2: Trump finds a reason to delay again. He's already pushed this deadline multiple times. Iran offers a small concession, maybe more Pakistani tankers through Hormuz, and Trump takes it as a sign of progress. Both sides may even quietly agree on this. It buys time without either side losing face. Scenario 3: Trump declares victory and walks away. He already told aides he'd leave with Hormuz closed. He could frame the military damage as mission accomplished, claim the new regime is "more reasonable," and punt Hormuz to an international coalition. Iran keeps the Strait. Trump keeps the narrative. The world cleans up the mess. Scenario 4: Trump goes all in. He's threatened this repeatedly and delayed every time. But the rescue mission may have emboldened him. Former aides say his confidence in his own judgment has grown. If he strikes power plants, 85 million Iranians lose electricity. Iran's response would likely be the most devastating of the entire war: desalination plants, Bab el-Mandeb, every bridge on their published target list. A retired CENTCOM commander thinks pressure will eventually work. U.S. and allied intelligence say the opposite: the new Supreme Leader is harder line than his father, and the IRGC is gaining authority, not losing it. Over a month in, Trump is still asking the same question he asked on day one. Why haven't they just given in? Tomorrow we find out what happens when that question still has no answer. Source: NYT, WSJ


"Trump wants to add nearly $7 trillion to the $39 trillion national debt with his new military budget," per FORTUNE










🇺🇸🇮🇷 The last 48 hours to prevent catastrophe... Axios reports a two-phase deal is being negotiated through Pakistani, Egyptian, and Turkish mediators, plus direct text messages between Witkoff and Iran's FM Araghchi. Phase one: a 45-day ceasefire. Phase two: permanent end to the war. Mediators say fully reopening Hormuz and resolving the uranium question can only happen in the final deal, not upfront. Iran won't surrender its two biggest bargaining chips for a temporary pause. The core problem: Iran doesn't trust this won't be another Gaza. A ceasefire on paper that Israel ignores whenever it wants. Tehran wants guarantees the bombing actually stops and doesn't restart in 45 days. Given Israel's track record of striking through every previous diplomatic window, that fear isn't irrational. Trump told Axios directly: "There is a good chance, but if they don't make a deal, I am blowing up everything over there." The operational plan for a massive strike on Iranian civilian infrastructure is ready to go. Iran has promised to retaliate against Gulf oil and water facilities if it happens. Mediators are warning Tehran this is the last real chance. Trump extended his deadline by 20 hours to Tuesday 8PM ET. That's either a sign negotiations are progressing or one final pause before the most destructive phase of the war begins. Source: Axios











Elon Musk has 6.5 MILLION times more wealth than the typical American. It’s time for a wealth tax — billionaires must pay their fair share.









