Hims House

Some closing thoughts on $HIMS: H/T to Andrew. He pulled a Travis K and pushed the boundaries. Sometimes breaking the law does pay off… After taking the litigation risk off the table, it’s really an uninteresting short for most institutions. It’s a meme stock, with an aggressive CEO, a small mkt cap, a high short interest, and an uninteresting catalyst path. At some point, I think people will re-visit as a short. Maybe if the stock bleeds higher ($30+). Over the next 1-2 yrs, I think we’ll see the marketplace return to what it was pre-GLP1s: highly competitive with tough unit economics. International strategy / execution is TBD. Core fundamentals will continue to bleed lower (weaker organic growth), challenging margins (expensing SBC, and slowing member growth. Wrt $NVO…It’s a broken asset. $LLY ate their lunch, and they were backed into a corner. A desperate animal often does unexpected and stupid things. This was another bad decision in a series of bad decisions the company has made since 2022. It just shows you how bad European management teams are — serious lapses in judgement, rewarding bad behavior, setting terrible precedent, etc. Regardless, there are very structural problems with the business, and a deal with the devil isn’t going to save them. Final thought, if HIMS does hold true to the bargain this time (which seems more likely given FDA/DOJ pressures), you have to think $LLY is gonna want a piece of the 2.5mn subscriber action too, no? In which case, $NVO loses….again. And $HIMS gets access to a new pipeline of products. What a wild saga it’s been…

$HIMS Q2 OFF TO A SLOW START Ro has now fully closed the gap with Hims in observed U.S. credit card sales (Hims still larger internationally) 😳 Here's latest $HIMS Data Tracker, including Q2 revenue prediction, app rankings, and Meta ads analysis: (link below)