♣️ ROYALEGOMORRA
39K posts


Ingen vill ha detta krig
Megatron@Megatron_ron
BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Historic protests against Trump across the United States
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♣️ ROYALEGOMORRA 리트윗함
♣️ ROYALEGOMORRA 리트윗함

@BASF har fått nog av Tysklands fullständigt vansinniga energipolitik. Företaget monterar därför ner sina fabriker i Tyskland och bygger upp dem igen i Kina. Att energipriserna som avsiktligt höjts av tyska politiker i syfte att omstöpa ekonomin och påtvinga människorna ett grönt och fattigt levnadssätt är den främsta anledningen till BASF:s flytt.
handelsblatt.com/100211973.html…
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♣️ ROYALEGOMORRA 리트윗함

Kan ngn fråga grok om de är sant tack
Någon betalande användare
glycine nationalist@acteduweininger
New Zealand is on track to run out of fuel in about three weeks. First world country btw. No fuel reserves. Refineries closed down under Jacinda Ardern. Deep sea oil exploration banned under Jacinda Ardern. Jacinda Ardern and covid lockdowns. Jacinda and covid.
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♣️ ROYALEGOMORRA 리트윗함

"helt förskräcklig upplevelse " 😂
First Squawk@FirstSquawk
The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson: We have a truly catastrophic experience with American diplomacy
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♣️ ROYALEGOMORRA 리트윗함

@Aktiediplomaten @alden_niklas @mr__quake Åk ner till Ukraina och slåss för din sak bara så vi slipper se detta konstanta tweetande från dig
Tack på förhand
Mvh
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@alden_niklas @mr__quake Underbar whataboutism de kör med. Som av en slump tycks det alltid komma den typen av inlägg några timmar efter att man riktar kritik mot Ryssland.
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Yen is the tell here. BOJ letting yields run while the Fed's stuck at 3.50-3.75% . that yield differential compression is unwinding the biggest carry trade on the planet. When yen strengthens, every levered fund that borrowed cheap yen to buy Treasuries and US credit has to cover.
That's why you're seeing $TLT down 1.7% on a day when risk-off should be driving a bid into duration. The natural buyer is now a forced seller. 30Y at 4.83% creeping toward 5% isn't about inflation expectations . it's about foreign capital demanding a bigger term premium to hold US paper while the dollar breaks below 100 on $DXY.
The carry unwind sequence is textbook: yen strengthens → leveraged positions liquidate → Treasuries sell → yields spike → equities follow. We're in leg two right now.
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Stocks down. Bonds down. Dollar below 100. All at the same time.
That's not a rotation. That's capital leaving US assets.
The 30Y yield is 7 basis points from 5% while the dollar breaks a level it hasn't lost in years. $TLT is getting destroyed on a day when it should be catching a bid.
When treasuries stop acting as a safe haven during a selloff, you're watching a confidence problem, not a growth problem.
Powell speaks Saturday. If he doesn't address the long end, I think $SPY trades below 640 next week.
Quad witch just stripped the gamma cushion. Monday moves hard in whatever direction it picks.
Is this the Sell America trade or am I overthinking it?
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No pay closer attention
Pound down, uk yields up. That’s forced liquidation and screams bad under the hood.
When multiple levered players all need cash at the same time, they sell whatever they can, wherever they can. The things that are hardest to sell (leveraged loans) get hit worst. It’s not about whether the companies are good or bad. It’s about who owns the paper and how desperate they are. That’s forced selling, and it shows up as spreads blowing out in weird, non-fundamental ways.
Same fire, different rooms.
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Denna är feeeet
First Squawk@FirstSquawk
JPMORGAN & GOLDMAN OFFER HEDGE FUNDS WAY TO SHORT PRIVATE CREDIT
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♣️ ROYALEGOMORRA 리트윗함

Already wrote that one. Here it is:
The five-second epistemology of the counterattack.
Any Gulf state that assists in a direct attack on Iran will have missiles sent to its palaces. Not its infrastructure. Its palaces. The buildings where the kings sleep. The throne itself. Iran said this on day one. The missile hits the palace. The monarchy is over.
And somebody forgot the most basic difference between the Sunnis and the Shia. The one that matters to this war more than any theological dispute. The Gulf is ruled by monarchies. Hereditary kingdoms. Kings and emirs and crown princes who rule because their fathers ruled. Iran is a republic. Elections. Parliament. Supreme leaders chosen by an assembly. Kill a king and the kingdom ends. Kill a supreme leader and the republic convenes and selects the next one and the next one says not the right time for peace.
That’s why nineteen days in, not one Gulf airforce has fired back. Bahrain has intercepted 125 missiles and 203 drones and returned zero. Saudi Arabia intercepts over the Eastern Province and doesn’t retaliate. The UAE absorbs strikes on Fujairah, Shah, Dubai International, Sheikh Zayed Road, and doesn’t scramble a single jet. Qatar takes four ballistic missiles and issues evacuation orders in Doha and doesn’t fire back. Every monarchy making the same calculation every day — absorb the damage, don’t cross the line. The monarchies live there. They understand this. The people tweeting about Gulf airforces counterattacking do not.
Iran has all the leverage and knows exactly how to use it. A country that read Sun Tzu better than the Chinese and Clausewitz better than the Germans and the Quran better than the Arabs the empire is hiding behind. Iran has been under sanctions for forty-five years. Fought an eight-year war while the world armed Saddam with chemical weapons. Built the IRGC during deprivation. Built its missile program under sanctions. Built its drone fleet under maximum pressure. Every program the empire is trying to destroy was built during the deprivation the empire now threatens as consequence. The threat is the environment Iran already operates in. The threat is Tuesday. Even Dalio figured it out. The ability to withstand pain is more important than the ability to inflict pain. The kitchen said it first. Karbala is the pain thesis. Fourteen centuries of not submitting. The empire threatening Iran with the thing Iran has already survived while Iran threatens the Gulf monarchies with the one thing they cannot survive.
The Gulf states recover more easily. The Gulf states whose 95 to 140 jackup rigs are idle. Whose offshore fields are on decline curves. Whose refineries are under evacuation order. Whose force majeures are declared. Whose Strait is closed. Whose LNG terminals are burning. Whose airports are taking drone debris. The recovery hasn’t started because the war hasn’t stopped and the war hasn’t stopped because the dispensationalist Disney World needs the prophecy and the prophecy requires the war.
Day nineteen. The palaces are standing. The thrones are intact. Because Iran said what it would do and every monarchy believed it. The counterattack is a fantasy of someone who doesn’t understand why it hasn’t happened yet. The monarchies are monarchies. The republic is a republic. The Strait is closed.
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