Private Amit

TRUMP SAYS THAT THE IRANIANS GAVE HIM 10 BOATS OF OIL AS A “GOOD FAITH GIFT” TO BEGIN NEGOTIATING. Well, we finally got the answer on what the “Iranian gift” was that Trump has been talking about. If this is true, although 10 boats of oil are not much compared to the 120 that pass through the Strait daily, it is a potential sign of negotiations taking place. Trump keeps saying we will attack you hard, Iran keeps saying we will never negotiate — both just putting up a front with potential real negotiations happening behind the scenes. Time will tell…but right now the market does not know what to believe.

$META who’s buying?

TRUMP: “You know, I thought oil prices would be up more and the stock market would be down more after the war. I guess the American people have faith in me.”

TRUMP: - IRAN IS BEGGING US FOR A DEAL - THEY ARE LYING PUBLICLY TO EVERYONE - IF THEY DON’T GET SERIOUS, THERE IS NO TURNING BACK either you believe Trump that we are in serious negotiations or you think there never was a deal in the first place

TRUMP: - PAUSING ENERGY PLANT ATTACKS BY 10 DAYS TO APRIL 6TH - TALKS ARE GOING WELL

well Mr. President, you are now getting a lower stock market and higher oil prices today 😂

As ugly as this market has been, here's a pretty crazy statistic... From Jan 1st to March 26th of this year, the S&P $SPX has had 29 out of 58 days close red. 50% of the year has been red and the index is down 4.2% YTD. From Jan 1st to March 26th of 2025... 1. The S&P was down 10.2%, significantly worse than the current decline. 2. 61% of days, 35 out of 57, were red. 11% more than the 50% of red days this year. As ugly as this market feels, likely because of the whiplash up and down based on the war headlines, last year was worse during the same time period. Hopefully 2026 doesn't get as bad as 2025.

SPY loses $650 time to bust out the peter lynch clips just exhausting i will say, the covered call has helped this year if you aren't actively transitioning your entire portfolio into new themes every week for the people buying calls on the idea that we will break out...all i can say is thank you for letting me sell them to you because id rather be stuck having to roll a position if we do get some huge V shape vs not getting SOME premium from the market when we chop every single week

@FLOTUS First lady posting about humanoids @Figure_robot so bullish congrats 🙏

Well, we do have some official confirmation now from the White House that a framework agreement to negotiate a ceasefire was sent to Iran. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt refuses to say who the agreement was sent to or the content of the reported 15-point plan, but it does seem like conversations are happening. The Iranians, obviously, are rejecting all conversations and have substantial demands (including the complete end of war and reparations) to even begin negotiating, but part of the reason the market may have been green today is on the belief that there are *some* level of discussions taking place.

Would you rather buy $MSFT or $NVDA at these levels for a one year holding period? $MSFT — $370, -21% YTD, $2.7T MC, 22x FWD PE $NVDA — $179, -5% YTD, $4.3T MC, 21x FWD PE

IRAN RESPONDS TO THE US 15-POINT AGREEMENT: - Iran rejects ceasefire, says it will not negotiate with parties that violated agreements - Will only end the war after achieving strategic goals - Accuses Israeli journalists in Western media of spreading propaganda and denies any direct or indirect talks with the U.S. This is according to the Fars News Agency, essentially the official media outlet of the IRGC. Now, there are two scenarios here: 1) Iran is actually negotiating but denying all negotiations to place maximum pressure on the US so that credit markets continue to price in further escalation which could make Trump give more concessions 2) There are zero negotiations happening, there is no peace deal in place, all of the reporting on this has been wrong and the war is continuing like it was before any of these headlines came in. If it’s the latter, markets may start to give up the move they made yesterday after hours. If Iran is just saying this to create more leverage and markets figure that out, then the idea of a ceasefire becomes more real and potentially could get priced in to a greater extent than the move we saw yesterday.

$HOOD ROBINHOOD INCREASES BUYBACK PROGRAM FROM $400M TO $1.5B. “Robinhood is a generational company with a massive long-term opportunity,” said Shiv Verma, Chief Financial Officer of Robinhood.  “This authorization reflects the confidence of our management team and board in our ability to continue delivering innovative products for customers and creating value for shareholders while returning capital over time.” Robinhood bought back $1.1B of stock, 25M shares, at an avg price of $45 over the past two years.

BREAKING: The United States has sent a 15-point agreement with terms to a one month ceasefire to Iran, as per the New York Times. The exact terms have not been disclosed but broad ideas are around Iran giving up full control of their nuclear weapons and the US lifting sanctions.

TRUMP: - WE ARE NEGOTIATING WITH IRAN, MARCO AND JD ARE INVOLVED - THEY REALLY WANT TO MAKE A DEAL - IRAN HAS ALREADY AGREED TO US THAT THEY WILL NEVER DEVELOP A NUCLEAR WEAPON once again, Trump is explicitly admitting that negotiations are real and a deal could happen

$NVDA “Is it possible for NVIDIA to be a, you know, $3 trillion revenues company in the near future? The answer is of course yes. And the reason for that is because it’s not limited by any physical limits. There’s nothing that I see that says, you know, gosh, $3 trillion is not possible."

$IGV SaaS down again today is just becoming exhausting. Why? Claude released a new tool that got 40M views in 12 hours. More automation workflows for people. Which makes the market think more workflows will leave enterprise adoption from $CRM $NOW $ADBE and the other major players…including $MSFT which is now at its lows of the year. Nothing Jensen can say, nothing the software companies can say, no amount of buybacks…it is all now rooted in how the algos perceive software vs AI. Once again, if Anthropic is gonna replace every software name…that needs a TON of compute. That should means semis are up today but they aren’t. Doesn’t make sense but it is the nature of the choppiness of the market.

$NVDA First post in a few weeks — will be getting to a regular posting schedule again starting this week. I am doubling down on Nvidia. I like that the market hates the name because either the market will be right or Jensen will continue to blow everyone away. This really does feel like one of the better risk rewards in the market, assuming the macro stays somewhat stable, and the core premise around this is that we simply don't have enough compute. Article (as always no paywall) linked below ⬇️

$NVDA Article: substack.com/home/post/p-19…

TRUMP: - IRAN WANTS TO SETTLE, WE'LL GET IT DONE, I HOPE - VERY GOOD DISCUSSIONS WITH IRAN - THIS TIME, IRAN MEANS BUSINESS This is the 3rd time today that Trump has spoken to the media about wanting to get a deal done with Iran. He is either seriously trying to find an offramp or really trying to calm the bond markets down…or both.