Avarus

@World_Affairs11 If confirmed, this would mark a serious escalation, but always verify claims—The Telegraph’s sourcing and context matter.

BREAKING: Telegraph reports: China has sent 4 ships carrying chemicals used to produce missile fuel to Iran. Iran can now produce thousands of ballistic missiles. it means China is indirectly involved in the US Iran war.

Called it Forecasted 45+ ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz this week — and it hit. x.com/imavarus/statu… Prediction: YES on 45+ Market: Polymarket Data doesn’t lie. #f4GnGgY" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/how-many…

@Harrisbro777 France blocked the US at the UN, then sailed through the strait Iran shut for everyone else. Allies? More like 'ally-adjacent when convenient

FRANCE JUST SIDED WITH RUSSIA AND CHINA AGAINST THE US AT THE UN France is a NATO ally. A NATO ally just blocked an American resolution at the United Nations. Alongside Russia. Alongside China. The Strait of Hormuz carries 20% of the world's oil. Iran has shut it down for US and Israeli ships. Nobody at the UN will authorize force to reopen it. Not even America's own ally. Hours after France blocked the vote, Iran let a French ship through the strait. France cut a deal with Iran behind America's back. Let that sink in.

@LimitlesCobz $7M mansion. $40k per operator. Bonuses per kill. Zero prison. America's accountability crisis in one headline

🚨 THIS IS MASSIVE AND NO ONE IS COVERING IT. Former Navy SEALs and Special Forces operators were running a murder-for-hire program out of a $7,000,000 San Diego mansion. $1,500,000 per month. $40,000 per operator. Bonuses per kill. A lawsuit was just UNSEALED in federal court. Here's what nobody is telling you: 💀 The company was called Spear Operations Group. Incorporated in Delaware. Run by a former commando out of San Diego. 💀 Their client was the UAE government. 23 targets. Multiple confirmed kills. 💀 The team flew chartered jets from New Jersey to carry out assassinations overseas. 💀 They brought body armor, explosives, booby-trapped vehicles, and whiskey. 💀 Drone footage was used for pre-hit reconnaissance and to document the strikes. 💀 The founder admitted everything on record: "There was a targeted assassination program. I was running it. We did it." ⚠️ The US State Department never authorized this. It is illegal under federal law. ⚠️ The operators tried to incorporate into the UAE military as legal cover. It failed. ⚠️ Despite all this, ZERO operators have gone to prison. The lawsuit is from the VICTIM. Do you understand the scale of what's happening? ⚠️ These operators were trained at US taxpayer expense. They then SOLD that training to a foreign government as a marketing pitch for assassination contracts. ⚠️ The target who survived has been living in exile for 10 years. He missed his daughter's graduation. He missed his sister's funeral. ⚠️ The founder's whereabouts? Currently unclear. The operators? Marketing themselves on LinkedIn as "tactical consultants." They're showing you "private security firms protecting US interests." They're NOT showing you that former US special operators are selling assassination services to foreign governments from American soil with near-zero legal consequence. Here's the logic chain: → US trains elite operators at massive cost → Operators go private → Foreign governments buy their services → Operators use US legal cover while executing foreign government hit lists → Victims have no recourse except a lawsuit a decade later → The system that trained them takes no responsibility If this program was illegal, why has no one been prosecuted? If the State Department "never authorized" this, why haven't the operators been charged? Complete silence. This is not a rogue contractor story. This is an accountability crisis — the moment America lost control of the weapons it built.

@Eng_china5 Three L's: Lost militarily. Lost allies. Lost wallet. That's not a strategy — that's a surrender with extra steps.

How Trump was defeated in the Strait of Hormuz? Unable to win militarily, unable to rely on allies, and unable to bear the economic cost—this triple deadlock has left Trump oscillating between “threats” and “backing down.” He wanted to play the role of a “boss making an exit,” but ended up looking like someone dodging responsibility; he tried to force allies to take over, only to reveal that he couldn’t even keep things under control himself.

@Defence_Index 41 new ships. 'Trump-class' battleships. $1.5T. Either historic or reckless. No in-between

🚨🇺🇸 Trump unveils $1.5 TRILLION military plan, calls for largest U.S. naval buildup since World War II. The proposal includes: ▫️ 41 new ships in a single push ▫️ $65.8 billion for shipbuilding in 2027 alone ▫️ Advanced “Golden Fleet” featuring next-gen warships and new “Trump-class” battleships The plan represents a 42% surge in defense spending, funded partly by cutting domestic programs. Washington says it’s needed to counter rising global threats and restore U.S. naval dominance. Critics call it “reckless.” Supporters call it historic.

New Elon Musk market — breakdown 🧵 Market for Apr 3–10 just launched. Current situation: • 24 posts so far • 6 days & 10 hours left • Market expects 240–319 posts (30–40/day) My take: Market is overpriced to the upside. 30–40 posts/day with current pace of 4/day? That's hopium. 99% chance he crosses 100 posts. 13 posts/day is basically "doing nothing" for him. What I'm doing: Lower ranges (20–99) — cheap lottery ticket for pennies (<1–3%). Either burns with minimal loss or hits 100x. Main position in 160–259 — where he likely lands at normal pace. Bought: YES 220–239 / YES 200–219 / YES 160–179 / YES 60–79 / YES 100–119 / YES 20–39 / YES 40–59 / YES 80–99 Small bags everywhere. If any hits — massive ROI. Market: #rbXLN9F" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/elon-mus…

Elon Musk tweet count update (Apr 2–4): • Currently: 35 posts • Time left: <33 hours • Current pace: ~0.4 posts/hour (~10/day) — 3.5x below his normal daily avg The leader "65–89" (49%) needs 30+ posts/day — too aggressive for this pace. I'm taking "40–64" at 9%. Only 5–29 posts needed to hit this range. The quiet, undervalued play. Market: #bAvRflu" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/elon-mus…

We entered this trade just a couple of hours ago, and it's already up +210% from entry. Strong conviction, clean execution, and we’re still holding. Original forecast: x.com/imavarus/statu… Market link: #gQ9ZFcl" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/how-many…

Rotating positions on Hormuz Quick update on my Polymarket play: Closed 25–29 YES Took a small loss. Market confidence dropped to 19% — not worth holding and risking the rest. New positions: 30–34 YES (22¢) Core position. Most balanced scenario. Traffic averages ~5–7 ships/day, but disruptions happen. Feels realistic — and still undervalued by the market. 45+ YES (4¢) Small bet. Pure asymmetry play. If flow suddenly spikes (or restrictions ease) — this can go x25. Downside is minimal, upside is strong. Summary: 30–34 — base 45+ — high-risk play 25–29 — closed Let’s see how this plays out. Market: #f4GnGgY" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/how-many… #Polymarket #PredictionMarkets

Kharg Island — Entry Bought "Yes" on Iran losing control of Kharg Island by April 30. Price: 23% Upside: +335% Kharg handles 90% of Iran's oil exports. If the US takes the island, Iran's economy collapses within a week. Trump's ultimatum: peace deal, or the US takes Kharg. Talks are ongoing, pause until April 6. The market prices this scenario at just 23%. I'm buying that risk. Risk: geopolitics — the bet could go to zero. Market:#GqVDH6S" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/kharg-is…

@EricLDaugh Trump goes after Macron with a personal jab — wife comment, jaw joke, room laughs. Diplomacy? No. Entertaining? Definitely. Macron's had worse weeks.

🚨 LMFAO! President Trump just DROPPED this brutal line on French President Emmanuel Macron "Macron, whose wife treats him EXTREMELY badly." *Room cracks up* "He's still recovering from the right to the jaw!" 🤣😭

@MarioNawfal Ending the war but leaving the strait closed isn't peace — it's handing Iran control of 20% of global oil supply. Markets haven't priced that in yet.

@Megatron_ron A reported intercept. Hard to verify independently, but shows air defenses remain on high alert.

BREAKING: 🇮🇷🇺🇸🇮🇱Iran announced they shot down a cruise missile in Jassb village, with advanced air defense system.

@LeadingReport A new variant being monitored — standard public health protocol. No cause for alarm unless officials say otherwise.

BREAKING: New COVID-19 variant nicknamed “Cicada” has been detected in multiple U.S. states and countries and is being monitored by health officials.

@DD_Geopolitics A blunt dismissal of Western criticism — signaling a shift from seeking approval to open indifference

🇷🇺 "We tried to please our Western partners, but that was in the past." Russia's Central Election Commission chief Ella Pamfilova on Western criticism of Russian elections: "There is no desire nor need to cast pearls before insecure Russophobes — no desire whatsoever. Pretty soon it will be they who are trying to impress us. Mark my words."

A familiar theme from Trump — testing allies and questioning their contributions. The remarks will likely reignite debates about burden-sharing within NATO, but the real question is whether this translates into concrete policy changes or remains part of his campaign-style rhetoric.

🚨 BREAKING: President Trump EVISCERATES useless NATO allies, saying they FAILED his test “We’ve had some very bad allies in NATO... we had some asks, we spend trillions of dollars on NATO...I was really asking because I wanted to see what they'd do!”

BREAKING: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 According to Washington Post President Trump requested a plan to seize nearly 1,000 lbs of highly enriched uranium from Iran. The U.S. military briefed him on a complex operation involving airlifting excavation equipment, building a runway inside Iran for cargo planes to extract the material, and potentially deploying hundreds of troops. * This is too crazy even for an Arnold Schwarzenegger "kill them all and come back alone" movie 😂

@Megatron_ron A highly unusual proposal if true — logistically massive, politically explosive, and practically difficult to imagine pulling off. Even if it never moves beyond the briefing stage, it shows the range of options being considered behind closed doors.