Inés Berniell

📢 ¡Nuevo documento de trabajo! "Marriage as Insurance", de @crisbonavida (Carnegie Mellon & CEDLAS). La incertidumbre migratoria en EE.UU. vinculada a la campaña y primer mandato de Trump, elevó el matrimonio en parejas mixtas (ciudadano + no-ciudadano) entre un 8-10% 📄👇 1/10

📑Nueva evidencia para Brasil muestra que la competencia de importaciones 🇨🇳 puede afectar educación, salarios y oportunidades de la siguiente generación: x.com/Andi__Cesar/st… @Andi__Cesar @maticiaschi @guille_falcone

Este gráfico (de #GenLac @CEDLAS) sobre la participación laboral antes y después de tener un hijo es casi seguro el que muestra una diferencia más clara entre varones y mujeres en en mercado laboral.

📢 ¡Nuevo documento de trabajo! La fecundidad en América Latina ha caído de manera abrupta en las últimas décadas. ¿Postergación de la maternidad o menos hijos? @InesBerniell, @raquel1fernan, @azulmenduina y @milagrosonofri exploran los patrones detrás de esta tendencia 🧵👇 1/10

👶 En nuestra última actualización incluimos datos sobre el efecto del nacimiento del primer hijo en participación laboral, empleo, horas trabajadas, ingreso e informalidad laboral. Explorá los indicadores y gráficos interactivos 🌐 #GenLAC [3/5]

¿Por qué es fundamental medir desigualdades de género en América Latina? Solo lo que se entiende, se puede transformar. 📢 Este #8M, reafirmamos nuestro compromiso de aportar evidencia para analizar y visibilizar las brechas de género en la región a través de #GenLAC. [1/5]

🏛️ El CEDLAS está entre las principales instituciones de Argentina: ocupa el puesto 4 de manera independiente y contribuye sustancialmente al puesto 1 de la Fac. de Cs. Ec - Universidad Nacional de La Plata, @economicas_unlp. 🔗 #inst10" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">ideas.repec.org/top/top.argent…

📊 RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) actualizó en enero 2026 sus rankings mundiales. 🇦🇷 En el ranking de autores argentinos según publicaciones de los últimos 10 años, 6 investigadores/as del CEDLAS se ubican entre los primeros 16 puestos. 🔗 #authors10" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">ideas.repec.org/top/top.argent…

⏰ Les recordamos que el día mañana 19/02 a las 18 h es la reunión informativa de la ✨Maestría en Economía de la UNLP✨ Una oportunidad para conocer el programa, el plan de estudios y resolver todas tus dudas. ¡Te esperamos!

🔬✨ El 11 de febrero se conmemoró el Día de la Mujer y la Niña en la Ciencia. La ciencia y la igualdad de género deben avanzar de la mano para afrontar los desafíos globales. Para eso, es clave entender dónde empiezan las brechas en STEM. Te lo contamos con datos de #GenLAC 🧵👇

¿Pensando en arrancar una maestría en 2026? ¡Apurate que falta poco! ✨Maestría en Economía de la UNLP✨, inscripciones abiertas hasta el 28 de febrero. 📆19 de febrero ⏰18:00 horas 🔗Link #success" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">zoom.us/j/95762004694#… Más info en 👉 me.econo.unlp.edu.ar

📢 New working paper: @maticiaschi, @GNeidhofer & Mario Negre (World Bank) study how child labour can shape intergenerational mobility in Mozambique—the world's least mobile country. 🌍📊 🔗cedlas.econo.unlp.edu.ar/wp/no-365/ 🧵👇 [1/6]

The very rapid decline in fertility in Latin America is driven by behavioral change, rather than demographic changes. Childlessness plays only a minor role in, from @milagrosonofri, @InesBerniell, @raquel1fernan, and Azul Menduiña nber.org/papers/w34749

New CEPR Discussion Paper - DP21071 Understanding Latin America’s Fertility Decline: Age, Education, and Cohort Dynamics Inés Berniell @InesBerniell @unlp, Raquel Fernandez @nyuniversity @nberpubs, Azul Menduiña & Milagros Onofri @unlp ow.ly/bUpQ50Y1IuP #CEPR_DE #CEPR_PE #EconTwitter

Few facts are more surprising than that, as of early 2026, Latin America has a lower fertility rate than the U.S., reversing a long-standing historical pattern. I was therefore very glad to see this morning a truly fascinating paper by Milagros Onofri, Inés Berniell (@InesBerniell), Raquel Fernández (@raquel1fernan), and Azul Menduiña on Latin America’s recent fertility decline at @nberpubs: Understanding Latin America’s Fertility Decline: Age, Education, and Cohort Dynamics nber.org/papers/w34749 I have not yet had time to fully digest all its findings, but I will be reading it repeatedly over the next few weeks. From a first reading, here are five key results (which align very well with some of my previous posts here on X): 1️⃣ The decline in period fertility between 2000 and 2022 is driven primarily by reductions in within-group birth rates, rather than by changes in population composition. 2️⃣ The largest contributions to the fertility reduction come from younger and less-educated women. 3️⃣ The decline in completed fertility reflects substantial reductions in the average number of children per woman. 4️⃣ This is driven primarily by lower fertility among mothers, rather than by rising childlessness. 5️⃣ There is currently a negative correlation between female labor force participation and the total fertility rate, suggesting that greater engagement of women in market work is not directly driving the fertility decline. Findings 2️⃣ and 5️⃣ contradict some of the overfacile explanations one often reads in the media (or in the comments section): the reduction in fertility in Latin America is not concentrated among “liberated,” highly educated women with jobs in the market. Finding 3️⃣ says the observed reduction in fertility is not mainly about timing. Yes, timing matters, but much less so than reductions in completed fertility. Finding 4️⃣ is interesting, and perhaps different from more advanced economies. My own conjectures (not the authors’!): 1️⃣ Their data end in 2022, since they need to rely on final consolidated sources. Everything I have seen in the provisional data for 2023–2025 fully supports their findings and perhaps even reinforces them. 2️⃣ By looking at the cohort level, I do not see much of a differential effect between cohorts with and without access to cell phones. Instead, I see a constant decline over time. To make this latter point, I include one of the figures from the paper, plotting, for several countries and five-year birth cohorts from 1954–1958 to 2004–2008, the cumulative average number of children a woman has had by each age. The only point where perhaps I diverge somewhat from the authors is in their more optimistic assessment of the WPP data than mine. But that is a very minor quibble. Otherwise, anyone interested in Latin America’s fertility should read this paper with utmost attention. This is social science research at its best.

📢 Keynote speakers confirmed for the 7th GeFam Meeting! ✨Siwan Anderson (University of British Columbia) ✨ Inés Berniell (CEDLAS – UNLP) 📍 Montevideo, Uruguay 📅 Sept 10–11, 2026 More info at: gefam.com.br

📢 Nuevo documento de trabajo del @CEDLAS: @mflorenciapinto, @YuliaValdiviaR y Hernán Winkler analizan si un aumento en la fiscalización laboral reduce la informalidad. 🧵👇 [1/7]

"Even after accounting for the upfront costs and delayed benefits, enrolling marginal applicants to public universities generates substantial net returns for society, the marginal students themselves, and the government budget." Public Universities FTW!

@guille_falcone @JPubEcon Grande Guille! Felicitaciones!!

Nuevo paper en Journal of Public Economics @JPubEcon: “Protectionism, evasion and household welfare evidence from Nigeria’s import bans” junto con Erhan Artuc, Guido Porto y Bob Rijkers authors.elsevier.com/c/1mJZvAlw9~pYx