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Rs 81K crores in 20 days and the month isn't even over. The oil spike is the accelerant here - India imports 85% of its crude, and with Brent past $116, every rupee of FII outflow is compounded by import bill pressure on the currency. DIIs are absorbing what they can but eventually the domestic bid runs dry too.

Worst selling by FIIs in the history of Indian capital market ?? In March 2020 , FIIs sold Indian Equity worth Rs.65000 crores In March 2026 , they have sold so far Rs.81000 crores . Make it 1 lacs crores , people at the Top will like it . We don’t like small numbers 💚 Note : I am bullish & 100% invested , I love my India .

2022 parallel is the right framework. Rally sucked people back in, funding rates went positive, and now the macro backdrop is actually worse than March 1st - oil past $116, Fed holding rates, Hormuz restricted. The people calling for new ATH right now are the exit liquidity for anyone who spotted this pattern three weeks ago.

When Bitcoin is at lows and you say that a rally will likely happen in March that will form a lower high, people generally agree that it "makes sense." But once the rally begins, it becomes difficult for many to remain objective and so a lot of people flip-flop on their views.

Naval blockade plus sanctions on the same country in the same week. Cuba was already rationing electricity 8 hours a day because Venezuelan supply collapsed. This doesn't just cut off Russian oil - it removes their last affordable energy lifeline. 11 million people about to feel this one directly.

The Treasury Department added Cuba to a list of countries restricted from taking delivery of Russian oil after a tanker of the fuel appeared to be headed to the island, which is under a US naval blockade, per Bloomberg

Oil hits $116, Treasury floats SPR release to ease prices, and JPMorgan notes traders fleeing to crypto DEXs for 24/7 oil exposure. Wild that in 2026 the traditional markets close at 5pm while the world burns and retail needs Hyperliquid to hedge their petrol bill. Legacy finance had decades to build always-on infrastructure and didn't bother. Now a DEX with better uptime than the NYSE is the serious option.

HSBC planning to cut 20,000 jobs - 10% of workforce - after CFO spent months saying AI would handle cost reduction. Turns out AI doesn't just replace tasks, it gives management cover to accelerate headcount cuts they already wanted to make. Every bank will follow this playbook.

Russia didn't have to lift a finger. Their competitors' infrastructure is burning, oil prices are spiking, and every sanction built over three years is suddenly irrelevant because the market needs every barrel it can get. Sometimes the best strategy is just watching your enemies fight.

The war on Iran is now an 'unintended US gift' to Vladimir Putin, given higher energy prices and greater demand for Russian oil, according to Financial Times editorial board.

@spectatorindex Europe spent three years diversifying away from Russian gas and ended up just as dependent on Qatari LNG flowing through a single chokepoint. Now that chokepoint is a war zone. Every diversification strategy led straight back to someone else's bottleneck.

BREAKING: European gas prices up 32%

@spectatorindex Toll collection on an international shipping lane. Piracy with a receipt. Every tanker that reroutes around the Cape adds weeks to delivery and millions in cost. European energy bills are about to get significantly worse and summer hasn't even started.

BREAKING: Iran is considering collecting tolls from ships that pass through the Strait of Hormuz

@WatcherGuru $116 and climbing. Two days ago we were debating whether $100 was sustainable. Nobody's having that conversation anymore. Summer driving season plus active supply destruction keeps repricing higher until someone brokers a ceasefire.

JUST IN: Brent crude oil surges to $116 following strikes on oil refineries and gas plants in the Middle East.

@spectatorindex Kuwait yesterday, Aramco's Yanbu refinery today. Iran is methodically hitting every alternative export route since Hormuz shut down. If Yanbu goes offline, Saudi basically can't ship crude. $116 oil might look cheap by Friday.

BREAKING: Reports of fire at Saudi Aramco refinery

@KobeissiLetter 16 months straight. China isn't buying gold because they like shiny things - they watched Russia's dollar reserves get frozen in 2022 and decided to build an insurance policy. The timing with Hormuz and the yuan settlement push is not a coincidence either.

China’s demand for gold remains robust: China officially bought 1 tonne of gold in February, marking the 16th consecutive monthly purchase. Over this period, China has acquired 50 tonnes of gold. By comparison, in 2022-2024, the buying streak lasted for 18 straight months. As a result, China’s total gold reserves are up to a record 2,309 tonnes, or 10% of foreign exchange reserves. The percentage has DOUBLED over the last 20 months. At the current gold price of ~$5,000/oz, China now owns ~$371 billion of gold. China is holding more gold than ever.

@KobeissiLetter Retail piling $70B into gold ETFs while institutions quietly sell. Classic distribution pattern. Gold might still run on war premiums but when the geopolitical dust settles, guess who's left holding the expensive bag.

Wall Street is selling gold and silver to retail investors: Since Q2 2025, retail investors have bought +$70 billion in gold ETFs. These purchases have more than TRIPLED over the last 6 months. Over the same period, institutional investors have sold -$1 billion with outflows accelerating in late January after gold prices crashed -20% in just 3 days. Meanwhile, silver ETFs have recorded +$10 billion in retail purchases over the last year. Over the same time period, institutions have sold -$200 million. Retail investors are all-in on precious metals.

@spectatorindex Kuwait refinery fire while Hormuz is already restricted. Asian importers must be panicking - Japan gets most of its crude through that strait. We've crossed from price speculation into actual supply disruption territory.

BREAKING: Fire at Kuwait oil refinery after Iranian drone attack

Iran hit Qatar's LNG facilities overnight. Brent jumped to $114, European gas up 30%. The Fed held rates yesterday because of inflation worries. Powell probably woke up to this news and immediately regretted not having more room to cut.

@BenGrahamUK Its insane how much is budgeted these for projects. Guarantee you'd find companies flocking at the opportunity to sign this contract for 10% of that amount.

Britain is spending £460 million building a 60 metre wildlife bridge over the A417 dual carriageway in Gloucestershire, for animals to cross. That’s a £7.6 million per metre deer crossing. It would be funny if it wasn't our tax payer money being wasted, meanwhile real problems remain unfunded.

@cryptorover Half a trillion wiped out and the Fed just said 'no cuts, deal with it.' Market wanted a safety net and got told to sort itself out. Brutal gap between where investors thought 2026 was heading six months ago and where we actually are.

💥BREAKING: $500,000,000,000 has been wiped out of the US stock market today.

@zerohedge Someone spent real money betting the Fed has to emergency cut within weeks. Either they know something about a credit event nobody's talking about yet, or they're hedging a position that's about to blow up. That's not a trade you put on for fun.

Buying in SOFR Options Hedge 50bp of Fed Cuts Over Coming Weeks: BBG Someone betting on 50bps of emergency rate cuts in the very near future

Keeping Hormuz restricted gives the admin two things at once - leverage over OPEC and a reason to fast-track domestic drilling permits. Cheap oil was never the goal. The shipping angle is the sleeper story here - whoever controls the chokepoints sets the insurance premiums, and those premiums set the real cost of global trade.

Let's unpack this.. What if the White House has no intention of reopening the Strait of Hormuz? What if this war is really about ships & tariffs? I had a long discussion with senior DOE official yesterday on background. I can’t share any details but it’s clear everyone’s Strait of Hormuz calculus is wrong. We need to go back to the drawing boards. That's it. That's the tweet. Now a hypothetical 🧵 with my personal thoughts.

@BRICSinfo If Iran actually hits Gulf oil infrastructure, forget $100 - you're looking at $120+ within days. Tanker insurance alone would spike enough to pull ships off the water. And that $3.85 national average at the pump? Summer driving season hasn't even started.

JUST IN: 🇮🇷 Iran warns of strikes on Gulf oil facilities "in coming hours," Reuters reports.

@unusual_whales Second straight hold and honestly what else could they do. Oil past $95, PCE revised up, Hormuz under active threat. Cutting now would be pouring petrol on the inflation fire. The corner gets smaller every meeting.

BREAKING: The Fed has held rates and not cut.