JA Smith

My latest prediction for Burnham's cabinet, which remains mainly sensible centre left, with a few extended hands to the SCG. Add also Chris Bryant as Leader of the house Anneliese Midgley as Chancellor for DoL Yvette Cooper as Minister without Portfolio

This is good, as usual it’s obvious, but it’s good.

It's so funny seeing the trad media not know how to deal with a mainstream politician who's liked by young people.

Tie the state pension proportionately to the national living wage. Give them the same pay rise each year as working people.

@GordonFielden This is poppycock. Pensioners at the moment have a bigger and more secure annual pay rise than any other sector of society. It's ludicrous. The state pension should be tied proportionately to the national living wage so they rise equally each year.

Yet again, the Triple Lock has come under attack. Those advocating its removal or dilution fundamentally misunderstand what it represents. It is not an act of generosity by the State, nor is it an optional political indulgence. It is a solemn commitment to those who spent decades working, paying taxes and National Insurance, contributing to the prosperity of this country, and who are now entitled to retire with dignity and a reasonable measure of financial security. Nor does its importance end there. The principles underpinning the Triple Lock have wider consequences for many occupational and public sector pension schemes, including final salary pensions earned by those who devoted their careers to serving the nation. Any attempt to weaken those protections would have far-reaching implications for millions of pensioners. If Andy Burnham were to contemplate interfering with the Triple Lock without first seeking and obtaining an explicit mandate from the British people, I believe the political consequences would be immediate and profound. Pensioners must never be expected to shoulder the burden of political misjudgements or economic failures for which they bear no responsibility. If the objective is genuinely to restore economic growth, there is a far more credible course of action. Begin serious negotiations to rebuild Britain's relationship with the European Union, move progressively towards rejoining the Single Market and closer economic cooperation, and, when the country has had the opportunity to consider the facts, place the question before the British people in a referendum. That would offer a genuine strategy for economic renewal, rather than asking those who have already contributed throughout their working lives to pay the price yet again.

@EvanCull @seandsmyth By a whisker. Congrats to the greens.

@seandsmyth Got the other one though didn't they. 🙃 x.com/ElectionMapsUK…

Unlucky mate

@tcanham459 If anything, it probably means labours leadership is significantly more. Greens, Lib Dems and even some Tories will 2nd pref labour mostly to keep out Reform. Who's putting reform as 2nd pref? Some more extreme Tories? Hell, even restore voters despise them.

Need to make it clear that this is first preference voting intention in SV. So not reflective, necessarily, of final outcomes or indicative of support for each candidate.

@WulfrunianChris After all this, by 2029, I genuinely wouldn't be too surprised to see it all turn back to Labour V Tories.

Keep an eye on the Burnham v Badenoch tracker. People will try to convince you otherwise but that may well be the most interest space in 2029.

@IaninMeads @AndrewCooper__ @JohnRentoul It frequently doesn't. The daily mail commissioned polls weekly in the lead up to 2024. All showed labour leads. The daily mirror commissions polls from time to time, they show reform leads. The commissioner has no control over the outcome, merely whether to publish the results.

@JASmithWrites @AndrewCooper__ @JohnRentoul It must be coincidental how any poll published, that has been commissioned by someone, provides an outcome that the commissioning party agrees with. I’m sure the polling is legit, but let’s see what happens when we get an uncommissioned one.

If this is even roughly right, supplementary vote system should mean Labour hold this fairly comfortably.

The vile sexism in these comments. Took me less than a minute to find an "on her knees" joke. No wonder Farage is leading the polls if this is the state of our country. Makes me embarrassed.

@HopeDah26 @TomK_Brit1993 Thankfully, Angela was cleared by HMRC of wrongdoing, so you're talking pish.

@TomK_Brit1993 She’s a tax dodger so should have no role whatsoever on the front bench. She’s lucky to be sat in with the other back benchers, put her back in the box.

What role should Angela Rayner have in Andy Burnham's cabinet?

@TomK_Brit1993 Education or health would be my shout.

@IaninMeads @AndrewCooper__ @JohnRentoul Does matter who commissioned it. If it's focaldata, it's legit.

@AndrewCooper__ @JohnRentoul Worth bearing in mind that Hope Not Hate are associated with this poll, so it will be interesting to see what other polls show.

@OscarGreta1846 Why?

No 10 should be in London not up North which is being thought of by Andy Burnham and if he wants it he should pay for it. The seat of power is in London not Manchester. I really have no idea of the measure of this man and what he will bring to being PM.

@Jeremy_Hunt Jeremy, it's cost us hundreds of billions of pounds. It's responsible for the rise in small boats. It's responsible for huge problems in exports for small businesses. Brexit has been a disaster from day one.

It’s not credible to say Brexit was a huge mistake; the UK can flourish economically outside or inside the EU x.com/BBCNewsnight/s…

Love the Tories referring to private schools as "independent" to make them seem more deserving of tax relief. L They're fucking businesses. Children's education is not a commodity to be bought.

Really good starting point. Truth is Reform will really struggle on second preference. Very few Lib Dem, Green and even Tory voters, want anything to do with reform.

@stuey_beef If they're earning more than the tax bracket, they should be taxed. Why should you get an exception for being an entitled old git?

Telegraph reporting last year warned that millions of Britain’s poorest retirees faced being dragged into the tax net when the state pension breached £12,570, dubbing it the “retirement tax”. Asked directly, Labour refused to shield the state pension from tax, confirming that once payments exceeded the allowance, the portion above would be taxed at 20% – including for pensioners reliant solely on that income. At the same time, separate leaks showed Reeves planning an income tax raid that would hit millions of pensioners, with wealthy retirees facing up to £2,500 extra a year and around nine million state pensioners facing higher bills as thresholds were frozen. The latest DWP research takes those abstract threats and turns them into mechanics: instead of relying on simple assessments and collection decades later, the system would simply withhold tax on every payment once the allowance is breached. This is not about administrative simplification; it’s about cementing a shift where state pension is treated as just another taxable source, with automatic compliance built in. If Labour refused to rule out the retirement tax and is now exploring how to implement it via automatic deductions, doesn’t that expose Reeves’s “shielding” rhetoric as a temporary political fig leaf?

Northumberland Park (Haringey) Council By-Election Result: 🌹 LAB: 44.3% (+12.4) 🌍 GRN: 42.4% (+13.1) ➡️ RFM: 5.4% (-0.6) 🌳 CON: 4.9% (-2.0) 🔶 LDM: 3.0% (-1.7) No HSA (-21.2) as previous. Labour GAIN from Green. Changes w/ 2026.

@MarwanData Obviously very pleased, but this is a bit weird. Burnham bounce? Surely not yet.

Labour won this same ward by 1 vote in the local elections this year. Reform's vote share is exactly the same as in 2026, but Labour's vote by 15 points on May this year. The Green vote here has collapsed and looks like it has largely gone to Labour.

🫢