Jason Manolopoulos

@RonanFarrow @NewYorker @andrewmarantz This is great journalism. Look forward to your future projects .

(🧵1/11) For the past year and a half, I've been investigating OpenAI and Sam Altman for @NewYorker. With my coauthor @andrewmarantz, I reviewed never-before-disclosed internal memos, obtained 200+ pages of documents related to a close colleague, including extensive private notes, and interviewed more than 100 people. OpenAI was founded on the premise that A.I. could be the most dangerous invention in human history—and that its C.E.O. would need to be a person of uncommon integrity. We lay out the most detailed account yet of why Altman was ousted out by board members and executives who came to believe he lacked that integrity, and ask: were they right to allege that he couldn't be trusted? A thread on some of of our findings:

@PhxInsurgent Cc @ektrit / its coming US turns left

Every workplace has a Strait of Hormuz. You and your coworkers just have to find it and shut it down.

According to $JPM, the average investor (2.1%) not only underperforms the S&P 500 (8.2%); they failed to even keep up with inflation (2.2%). Why do they perform so poorly? Some ideas 👇🏻 🔴 Buying the hype (FOMO) 🔴 Selling the dip (Panic) 🔴 Over-trading (Fees/Taxes) 🔴 Trying to time the market

@orrdavid Euro infra - finnair - Dax ( post Hormuz)

Is there some way to bet on the Ukraine war ending soon? I don't see how it can go on now that Ukraine is able to kill Russian soldiers faster than Russia can replace them.

@patnrekognishn good stuff

Been cooking 👨‍🍳 Arb Risk-On / Risk-Off Rates Keep watching candlesticks

@ZeeContrarian1 below 2.5 now - still likes?

Our expert likes: $PLX below $2.5 $GERN below $1.5 — “P/E of 2.8 in 2030; should 3x until then” $MDWD below $17.5 — “big military contract coming soon; high-probability Phase 3, Clal biotech holds 13% of the company-their CEO keeps buying shares for his personal account, bought more last week” $LCTX below $2.5 — “the largest lottery ticket in the space, also highest risk” $KMDA below $8.5 — “oligopoly at a reasonable price now, with a nice yearly dividend” $URGN below $18.5 — “P/E of 3 in 2029; 12 months price target $30” $BNTX below $82 — “trading around cash levels; a company with lots of potential for free”

@HayekAndKeynes Low trust societies function on family connections and network / reputation

America is now a low trust society Mass immigration & the subsequent rise of identity politics have made us hate each other and distrust our own government

@UnintendedCons5 @houd__vast Interesting : how do you calc this ? Any good sources to monitor .

@houd__vast Yes.

How far down is crude demand right now? I think over 3mmbpd and falling fast.

@CRUDEOIL231 @PauloMacro Russia was a stronger adversary / inflation was unachored from covid stimilus / we were worried about nukes / russia touched much more commodities and more integrated with Euro economy . Not saying this is not risky , but one main transmission risk / oil and gas .

We’re all bogged down in the daily grind, but my buddy @PauloMacro just dropped a solid reminder of the 2022 analog. On the day of the Russia invasion, the S&P 500 gapped down but somehow finished up +1.5%, retested those lows, and then rallied into the end of the quarter. Only then did it absolutely crater through mid-2022. and Oil spiked ~$8/bbl from $92 to $100, but gave it all back to close flat. The very next day, it was trading at $90—lower than the night before the invasion. Then, just 6 days later, it touched $130. The big difference here? Russia was exporting 4-5 mb/d back then with zero actual supply loss; they actually pushed more crude onto the water throughout 2022. Meanwhile the Middle East exports ~15 mb/d through Hormuz, and right now, flows have basically stopped. And unlike Russia, there’s no floating storage to act as a buffer. That’s the whole story. We should probably stop getting so bogged down in the daily noise and focus on what's actually going down in the real world. History doesn't have to repeat the 2022 playbook, but it’s definitely something to chew on. #oott #com

@UnintendedCons5 spoke to top 10 greek shipping co. wet only : - seeing receiverers and suppliers bracing for longer impact - indian refiners are looking for alternative supply frm Saudi , but the alternative route not ready, thus planning reduced refinery runs - taking it day by day

@JM2020v I don't think this thing last much longer

Something we have been tracking. The US tracks down every launch with realtime satellite data across the spectrum and AI locates the target and keeps tracking it for bombing hours or days later. Each launch tends to be the last for each platform

@UnintendedCons5 Agreed , just looking for what i am missing and CL is not lower already.

@aleksbrz11 @telloglou @ektrit

🚨BREAKING NEWS A major dispute has reportedly erupted between the Pentagon and Trump over the Iran attack, with numerous generals reportedly on the verge of resigning. -Washington Post

@_KickingAssets_ Thanks for coming back. Looking through the tweets , indeed thats an amazing life change ! Must be very challenging and hugely rewarding ! Very brave

@_KickingAssets_ hello again ! is this still on track for TV release ?

@TheShortBear Austria 0.85% 2130 / 2.7% cash yield

If AI becomes what we are starting to panic about then bonds is probably the easiest trade out there. If AI destroys the job market If AI destroys expensive services and alike If Intelligence gets cheaper via hires If AI links up with robotics If AI gets anywhere close to where the panic believes it could, then we are probably looking at a new 0 rate environment within the mid term. Rate sensitive assets like Biotech are showing the path perhaps.

@dampedspring @compound248 captures both sides

First order. Tariff decision is Pro Growth and Inflationary as it is a reduction in taxes on US people and increases the national debt. (add 125BN in refunds in a year) Second order All TRUMP tariff rebate stimmies disappear as does any room to increase militaty spending. (anti growth and disinlfationary) Third order Trump has less ability to threaten tariffs and get FDI committments. (Anti Growth and disinflationary) Weeds. New Tariffs will be 75% of what was illegal almost immediately and could grind higher.

@compound248 Indeed . But relatively than before there are more alternatives to invest in.. so incrementally not better than asset classes

@JM2020v Massive deficit risk. Need a LOT of incremental growth to close that gap.

With tariffs out, get ready for gold and silver to moon.📈

@ZeeContrarian1 Kudos - right for the roght reasons with transparency and integrity

$ZIM - 𝐖𝐢𝐧𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐓𝐨𝐠𝐞𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 Over the past year, I wrote hundreds of posts about $ZIM. People kept asking me, why do you keep writing about $ZIM? It wasn’t about repeating myself. It was about precision. I wanted to explain the opportunity so clearly, from every possible angle, that anyone reading could think for themselves. Not follow me. Not trust me. Think. Based on facts. Based on logic. Not opinions. If the thinking was clear enough, they wouldn’t need conviction from me. They would have conviction in themselves. The goal was never to convince anyone to buy $ZIM. The goal was to make the situation so simple, so stripped of noise, that each person could arrive at the conclusion on their own. So that one day they would sit in front of their computer, look at their bank account, and feel proud. Not grateful to me. Proud of themselves. Because they understood the logic. Because they made the decision. Because they trusted their own thinking. That was the whole point. And judging by the messages I’ve received, it seems like many did exactly that. Many joined along the way. Many changed their financial lives. And today, it feels like we win. Together. And winning together is infinitely better than winning alone.