KiddMichael

Ordered 40 Platinum Chrome Value Boxes from Walmart. At the time, I was shocked to see it would let me order up to 99 boxes. Naturally, I showed great restraint and only ordered a very reasonable 40, hoping maybe I’d get a sealed case. Instead, I got the exact opposite. 27 separate packages showed up today. 13 more are still in transit. Fedex guy thinks I have problems. Bro, I got 99 problems, but a sealed case ain't one. #thehobby #2025ToppsChromePlatinum

2026 Topps Series 2 Analysis & Deep Dive Topps generously released the Series 2 odds 90 minutes before orders went live, which is adorable if you believe flagship analysis can be done during a lunch break. It cannot. Not the way we do it around here. Between the mountain of variations, the 23 different formats, retail exclusives, hobby exclusives, and everything else Topps crammed into this release, Series 2 is not a quick glance product. So yes, this is late. But now the numbers are actually crunched. Not skimmed. Full blown, Squatch VIP treatment. And there’s a lot here. Some of it is exactly what you’d expect (flagship blasters are trash). Some of it surprised me (Fat packs? WTF?). Some formats look better than I thought. Some look worse. There are a few areas where Topps actually deserves credit, which I know is confusing and uncomfortable for everyone involved. There are winners. There are losers. And there are a few buried nuggets in the odds that I'm confident you won't find anywhere else. Prepare yourselves, this may turn into a full-blown, thorough, proper deep dive. I might have a lot to say. Honestly, I don't even know yet. Let's just see where the numbers lead. Welcome to 2026 Topps Series 2. Part 1: Production numbers Total cards in product: 407,657,296 Compare that to 2026 Series 1: 555,439,060 That’s a 26.6% decrease. But honestly, we all knew Series 2 would be smaller than Series 1. It always is. That’s not the interesting comparison. The more relevant comparison is 2025 Series 2: 306,893,670 That’s a 32.8% increase YOY. However, that doesn’t quite tell the full story. There were a couple key formats left off the 2025 Series 2 odds sheet that are included for 2026: Fanatics Fest Hobby and Fanatics Fest Value Boxes. Those were exclusive Fanatics Fest releases, and I believe the Fanatics Fest Blasters were one of the best products of the entire year. More on that in a bit. So, to be fair, let’s assume 2025 and 2026 had the exact same Fanatics Fest Hobby and Value Box production. That would add another 1,540,800 cards to the 2025 total, bringing it to 308,434,470. That still leaves 2026 Series 2 up 32.2% over 2025 Series 2. OK, I tried. There’s just no getting around it. This is a gigantic increase in production. Base card production: 2026 Series 2 base cards per player: ~1,018,900 For context: 2026 Series 1- ~1,373,700 ea 2025 Series 2- ~780,400 Part 2: Total Production by Format Hobby: 2026 S2- 163,896 boxes (13,658 cases) 2025 S2- 139,586 boxes (11,632 cases) YOY +17.4% Jumbo: 2026 S2- 69,300 boxes (11,550 cases) 2025 S2- 60,634 boxes (10,106 cases) YOY +14.3% Hangers: 2026 S2- 609,280 (9,520 cases) 2025 S2- 544,102 (8,502 cases) YOY +12% Super Boxes (Does not include "Club Super Boxes", the Flagship Collection boxes available at Costco): 2026 S2- 120,510 (10,043 cases) 2025 S2- 132,760 (11,063 cases) YOY -9.2% Fanatics Value: 2026 S2- 100,200 boxes (2,505 cases) 2025 S2- 50,084 boxes (1,252 cases) YOY +100% Fat Packs: 2026 S2- 887,436 (8,217 cases) 2025 S2- 1,286,119 (11,909 cases) YOY -31% Mega Boxes: 2026 S2- 248,560 (12,428 cases) 2025 S2- 207,968 (10,398 cases) YOY +19.5% Retail Display: 2026 S2- 37,872 boxes (3,156 cases) 2025 S2- 27,032 boxes (2,253 cases) YOY +40.1% Value (Blasters): 2026 S2- 875,960 (21,899 cases) 2025 S2- 690,131 (17,253 cases) YOY +26.9% Club Super Boxes: 311,850 boxes (25,988 cases) Floor Display: 576,480 packs (not quite sure of box and case dynamics) Bulk packs: 1,058,880 packs (not sure of box/case dynamics) All-Star Game Megas: 112,900 (5,645 cases) *see notes below Japan Edition: 50,052 boxes (4,171 cases) Fanatics Fest Hobby: 2,760 boxes (230 cases) Fanatics Fest Value: 10,457 boxes (261 cases) Part 3: Format Notes Before we start comparing format values, there are a few important wrinkles worth addressing. 1) Club Super Boxes I presume Club Super Boxes are the Costco “Flagship Collection” boxes. The checklist denotes several items usually found in these boxes, including: •Flagship Collection parallels •Flagship Collection Chrome parallels •Bulk Order inserts •Flagship Collection Chrome Autos The problem is that these appear on the checklist, but not on the odds sheet. Since we don’t have odds for most of the good stuff that comes from these boxes, I’m not going to include them in the value comparisons. If I did, they would be short-changed. These will definitely end up being a much better format than the odds alone suggest. 2) All-Star Game Megas I’m still not quite sure what to make of the All-Star Game Megas. I know they exist because they’re on the odds sheet. I also know we had a version last year that contained 4 packs of 20 cards, but those were completely separate from the regular base set. This year these feel different. I see ASG base exclusives, but the odds list them at 1:3 packs in ASG Megas, with parallels that are quite a bit tougher. Last year, every card was either ASG base, a parallel, or an insert. I also don’t see the same inserts we had last year, like Homegrown Heroes. So what are these? I truly don't think these will be 4 packs of 20 again. I'm envisioning these as a Series 2 version of the Celebration Megas from Series 1. They definitely contain regular S2 base cards with all the same chases as other formats mixed in. They also have 3 rainbows of exclusive parallels- ASG, 1991 ASG, & 1991 All-Star ASG. I know. It's weird. For now, I'm assuming typical Mega Box dynamics of 14 packs of 14 cards, which may require adjustment after we see them in the wild. If these box dynamics are correct, these would sneakily turn out to be one of the top formats in the product. 3) Fanatics Fest Hobby & Megas I’m elated to see Fanatics Fest Hobby and Megas on the odds sheet. These super-limited SKUs have been around since the first Fanatics Fest a couple years ago, when they were a Chrome product. Last year, they became an offshoot of Series 2, and they were incredibly juiced- especially the blasters. These include: •Big Apple parallels •Swinging for the Stars inserts •As well as an array of various Series 2 hits They do appear to have taken a substantial step back in hit density from last year. We can’t compare directly because we never received odds for the 2025 version. But the Squatch knows stuff. I went HARD on these last year, ripping more than 2 cases personally. Even though they seem to have been de-juiced a bit, these should still be an awesome product compared to the more common formats. Part 4: Heat Map Expected Hit Rates by Format: Hobby 0.32 Autos/box (1 auto per ~3 boxes) 0.74 Relics/box (Combined rate of 1.06 indicates some boxes will have multiple hits) 3.7 Parallels 10.1 Inserts 1.7 Numbered Cards Jumbo 1.06 Autos 1.18 Relics (Combined rate of 2.24 indicates ~24% of boxes will have bonus hits) 13.6 Parallels 18.4 Inserts 3.2 # Cards Hangers 1 Auto per 50.6 hangers 1 Relic per 19.4 hangers 3.1 Parallels 5.9 Inserts 1 # Card per 3.5 hangers Super Boxes 1 Auto per 21.5 boxes 1 Relic per 8.9 boxes 7.3 Parallels 17.3 Inserts 0.54 # Cards/box Fanatics Value Boxes 1 Auto per 43.7 boxes 1 Relic per 18.9 boxes 6 Parallels 10.7 Inserts 1 # Card per 3.3 boxes Fat Packs 1 Auto per 96 packs 1 Relic per 35.8 packs 0.55 parallels 2.5 Inserts 1 # Card per 8.9 packs Megas 1 Auto per 18.1 boxes 1 Relic per 7.8 boxes 3.8 Parallels 22.7 Inserts 0.77 # Cards/box Retail Display Boxes 1 Auto per 13.5 boxes 1 Relic per 6.2 boxes 5.9 Parallels 26.8 Inserts 0.89 # Cards/box Value Boxes 1 Auto per 92.3 boxes 1 Relic per 34.5 boxes 3.5 parallels 8 Inserts 1 # Card per 4 boxes ASG Megas (assuming 14 packs/14 cards) 1 Auto per 15.3 boxes 1 Relic per 6.25 boxes 9.1 Parallels 24.5 Inserts 1.35 # Cards/box Japan Edition 1 Auto per 15 boxes 1 Relic per 4.9 boxes 5.6 Parallels 37.1 Inserts 1.8 # Cards/box Fanatics Fest Hobby 0.44 Autos/box (1 Auto per 2.3 boxes) 0.71 Relics/box (Combined rate of 1.15 indicates multiple hits in about 15% of boxes) 11.2 Parallels 27.9 Inserts 2.3 # Cards/box Fanatics Fest Value Box 1 Auto per 42.3 boxes 1 Relic per 5 boxes 6.3 parallels 14.9 Inserts 0.79 # Cards/box Part 5: Value Map Astonishingly, at the time of writing Hobby & Jumbo are both still available on the Topps site. So all prices are based on SRP or as follows: Hobby- $128, Jumbo- $250 Hangers- $15, Super Box- $40, Fanatics Value- $30, Fat Packs- $7, Megas- $50, Display Box- $70, Value Box- $25, ASG Megas- $60 (assumed), Japan Edition- $100 (S1 price was $84 + import fees), Fanatics Fest Hobby- $300 (last year's price), Fanatics Fest Blasters- $50 (last year's price) One important note: these prices and rankings will move as the secondary market settles. Unfortunately, X only lets me edit posts for one hour after publishing, so I won’t be able to keep this thread fully updated here. If you want the live version, follow me on Substack: @slabsquatch" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@slabsquatch I’ll post an editable spreadsheet there that lets you plug in current box prices as they change. Once you update the price, all the corresponding value metrics will adjust automatically. $/Card 1) Fat Pack- 19¢ 2) Super Box- 24¢ 3) Hangers- 25¢ 4) Megas- 26¢ $/Parallel 1) Hangers- $4.64 2) Fanatics Value- $5.04 3) Super Box- $5.50 4) ASG Mega- $6.62 $/Auto 1) Jumbo- $235.85 2) Hobby- $400.00 3) Fat Pack- $668.85 4) Fanatics Fest Hobby- $681.82 5) Hanger- $758.85 6) Super Box- $856.80 $/# Card 1) ASG Mega- $44.78 (assuming price & box dynamics) 2) Hangers- $51.90 3) Japan Edition- $56.18 4) Fat Pack- $62.37 5) Fanatics Fest Value- $63.29 6) Megas- $64.94 Of all the numbers in this post, this next one is the stat I care about most. $/Quality Hit is basically OPS+ for wax. It cuts through the noise, ignores empty fillers, and tells us which formats actually give you the best shot at a real hit for your money. Secondary pricing for formats may not always agree, but if you like to rip, I recommend staying as close to the top of this list as possible. $/Quality Hit (Parallels & Inserts /76 or less, Case Hit or rarer Inserts, Autos /100 or less): 1) Japan Edition- $82.00 2) Fanatics Fest Value- $82.50 3) ASG Mega- $99.00 4) Hangers- $144.60 5) Fanatics Fest Hobby- $153.00 6) Jumbo- $175.00 7) Fat Pack- $210.14 8) Mega Box- $215.00 9) Hobby- $232.96 10) Super Box- $241.20 Part 6: Format Value Notes Most of what we’re seeing here is pretty typical for a flagship release, but there are a few important things worth pointing out. 1) “Good for flagship” does not always mean “good” This is important. A great format in 2026 Series 2 may still look pretty rough compared to a better product overall. Flagship is not known for hit density. So when I say Hangers or Fat Packs look pretty good here, I mean they look good compared to the other 2026 Series 2 formats. That does not mean they’re loaded. Rip a stack of Series 2 Hangers next to the same expenditure of 2025 Topps Chrome Platinum Value Boxes, and you’ll see the difference real quick. One is a decent flagship format. The other is an actually good rip. Important distinction. 2) These are averages, not prophecies All of my numbers are based on averages. If Hangers give you the best shot at numbered cards, that does not mean every pile of Hangers will deliver. You might rip a bunch and get absolutely worked. You might also rip a lower-rated format, like Value Boxes, and hit a nuke. That’s wax. I’m not saying you absolutely must buy one format over another. Buy what makes you happy. I’m just showing what each format should produce on average. You can hit monsters from any format. More likely, you can also get kicked directly in the beanbag by any format. Again, that’s wax. 3) Jumbo autos are cheaper, but Hobby autos may be better As usual, Jumbos, followed by Hobby boxes, offer the most cost-effective path to autos across the board. But not all autos are created equal. Jumbos come in at roughly $235 per auto, which looks great on the surface. However, only 37.7% of Jumbo autos are numbered. Hobby boxes are much more expensive at roughly $400 per auto, but about 60% of Hobby autos are numbered. So yes, Jumbo gives you cheaper autos. But that's probably exactly what you're getting...cheaper autos. On average. I'm not saying anything. Just saying. Part 7: What Would the Squatch Do? In recent memory, virtually every flagship release has been a sure-fire steady riser after release. I typically buy a case of Hobby and a case of Jumbo, stash them for a few months, and have yet to be disappointed. The only way I’d be disappointed is if I ripped all of it. This is the first time in three years I wasn’t able to secure a case of Jumbos directly from Topps. I was able to get a case of Hobby and a couple boxes of Jumbo, but that was it. And honestly, I think that says a lot about where the hobby is right now. Chrome products have pushed beyond the price tolerance of a lot of collectors. When that happens, we tend to naturally drift back toward paper, flagship, and products that still feel somewhat attainable. So if you can get Hobby or Jumbo at retail, or very close to it, I think they’re very safe buys. Rip a couple boxes if it makes you happy. Stash some if you’d rather let the market do its thing and use the profit toward something you actually want later. As for retail, I don’t see most of it aging particularly well. Flagship retail formats typically turn into eyesores after some months when everyone is tired of seeing it clogging up shelves. That doesn’t mean it's useless. It just means retail is for ripping, not stashing. If you’re ripping retail, I’d stick to Hangers and Fat Packs. Those give you the best shot at walking away less disappointed. All-Star Game Megas and the two Fanatics Fest formats are the wild cards. If the ASG Mega dynamics are weird, I’ll reanalyze once we know more. Keep an eye out for that. As for Fanatics Fest blasters, I’ll probably end up chasing ghosts. They were so good last year that they ruined my expectation of other products. They were literally the best $50 boxes I’ve ever seen, which is why they're now ~$140. I don’t think this year’s version can live up to that, and the odds show they have probably taken a step back. But if I see them at a reasonable price, I’m still going to have a hard time saying no. This is still flagship, which means it probably won’t blow your doors off on rip value. But if you pick your spots, buy the right formats, and don’t expect every box to be a fireworks show, there’s still plenty here worth chasing. It can also leave you with some burnt up carcasses and an empty wallet if you let it. Part 8: The Print Runs Unnumbered Parallels: Silver Crackle Foilboard (Super Box only)- ~1,380 ea Diamante (Hanger only)- ~3,480 ea Holo Foil- ~6,490 ea Pink Diamante- ~160 ea Rainbow Foil- ~9,220 ea Aqua Rainbow Foil- ~375 ea Aqua Holo- ~165 ea Pink Holo- ~1,140 ea Topps Pattern (Fanatics Value only)- ~1,145 ea Sandglitter (Jumbo only)- ~990 Base All-Star Game (ASG Mega ony)- ~1,505 ea SP Rookies (4 card CL)- ~4,780 ea Golden Mirror Image Variations- ~132 ea Golden Mirror Legend Variations (50 card CL)- ~24 ea Through the Years Golden Mirror Rookies (5 card CL)- ~24 ea True Photo Variations (100 card CL)- ~95 ea Team Color Border (100 card CL)- ~1,110 Big Apple Foil (100 card CL)- ~260 ea Base Holiday Variation (Value Box only)- ~17,520 ea Unnumbered Inserts: Crooked Numbers (25 card CL)- ~75,230 ea Crooked Numbers Pink- ~966 ea Glove Work (65 card CL)- ~73,815 ea Glove Work Pink- ~950 ea First Pitch (6 card CL)- ~78,120 ea First Pitch Pink- ~950 ea 1991 Topps (50 card CL)- ~75,775 ea 1991 Topps Pink- ~960 ea 1991 Topps Crackle- ~8,700 ea 1991 Topps Pink Crackle- ~500 ea 1991 Topps All Star (50 card CL)- ~75,775 ea 1991 Topps All Star Pink- ~960 ea 1991 Topps All Star Crackle- ~8,700 ea 1991 Topps All Star Pink Crackle- ~500 ea Stars of MLB (30 card CL)- ~400,675 ea Stars of MLB Crackle- ~480 ea Titans of the Game (20 card CL)- ~402,560 ea Titans of the Game Crackle- ~480 ea Oversized 2026 Topps (16 card CL)- ~9,040 ea 1991 Oversized Topps (16 card CL)- ~18,000 ea 1991 Topps Koi Fish (Japan only)- ~2,500 ea 1991 Topps ASG Parallel (ASG Mega only)- ~3,160 ea Rare Inserts: Heavy Lumber (25 card CL)- ~475 ea Home Field (20 card CL)- ~475 ea Home Field Fanatics Fest (1 card CL)- 25 ea All Aces (10 card CL)- ~240 ea All Kings (15 card CL)- ~240 ea Base Card 1952 Variation (20 card CL)- ~95 ea Swinging with the Stars Chrome (Fanatics Fest only, 25 card CL)- ~190 ea Funko Base Cards (5 card CL)- ~290 ea Cover Athletes Cards (10 card CL)- ~71 ea Diamond Dust (10 card CL)- ~240 ea Unnumbered Autos: Baseball Stars Autos (92 card CL)- ~440 ea 1991 Topps Autos (90 card CL)- ~460 ea 1991 Topps All Star Autos (71 card CL)- ~100 ea Cover Athletes Autos (9 card CL)- ~15 ea Flagship Real One Autos (66 card CL)- ~155 ea Major League Material Autos (65 card CL)- ~50 ea City Connect Swatch Autos (56 card CL)- ~60 ea Unnumbered Relics: Major League Materials (98 card CL)- ~1,150 ea Real One Relics (45 card CL)- ~240 ea City Connect Swatch Relics (50 card CL)- ~715 ea Rounding the Bases Relics (79 card CL)- ~135 ea 1991 Topps Relics (50 card CL)- ~1,830 ea 1991 Topps All Star Relics (50 card CL)- ~1,225 ea #thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026ToppsSeries2