Market Check

Who is Market Check? .... To discuss this year's grain marketing strategies or our membership options, please give us a call. Eastern Aus - (02) 9499 4199 SA/WA - (08) 7093 7870

📣🇦🇺 ABS Jan Exports: #wheat: 2.68Mt (🆙387kt MoM). 2nd biggest Dec on record. WA at 1.28Mt‼️ #barley: 1.42Mt(🆙198kt MoM). Largest month on record 🚀. >1Mt to China alone #canola: 570kt(⬇️33kt). China up to 185kt for the season. Overall WA/SA very strong, EC still lagging.

The ongoing war continues to throw up price volatility📈🌾 If the current market movements feel hard to understand, that’s where we can help. The Market Check Academy simplifies key concepts, while our Membership delivers the insights needed in ever changing market conditions.

Another big rally last Friday night in global wheat futures (off a smidge in today's session)🚀🌾 Aussie wheat markets are only up a couple dollars today, meaning our basis is continuing to weaken. This is not unusual as sharp rallies offshore can take time to filter into physical markets.

Barley prices have remained firm across Aus as China remains a strong buyer. Jan26 was a record month of exports illustrating this demand. This is in light of a materially stronger AUD. But its the northern mkts that are popping, with QLD prices pulling ahead of everyone else.

The rollercoaster continues!🎢 The US markets opened yesterday morning with a bang, rallying >20c/bu to compound the gains from last Friday night. We then saw a sell off in oil which leaked into grain mkts. In AUD/t, we are $15-20/t lower this AM versus yesterday afternoon.

Nearby CBOT hitting 21-month highs as the offshore market rallies due to the Iran conflict. Input prices are rising rapidly so higher commodity prices are critical to offset this. Aussie prices have been reluctant to rally, with wheat prices up ~$10-15/t recently.

Andrew, Tom and Tyler are on the ground at the Wimmera Field Days🌾 If you’re heading out, make sure you pop into the Moore Exhibition Centre to say hi to the team!

Weekly rainfall until 9am this morning⛈️☔️ Some unbelievable falls, like >200mm in parts of the Eyre Peninsula & >150mm in parts of VIC. A huge outcome given how dry it had been. Plenty missed out though e.g. Griffith area receiving almost nothing when its badly needed.

#ABARES Mar Crop Report (YoY prod. changes): Winter Crop: +13% (2nd biggest) Wheat: +5.5% (2nd) Barley: +23% (record🏆) Canola: +20% (2nd) Lentils: +60% (🏆) Chickp: -4% (2nd) Faba: +36% (🏆) All states prod was raised since the Dec25 report🚀 2026 has a high bar to reach!

Now its Victoria's turn⛈️ - huge rainfall across the state over the past 24hrs with plenty in the Mallee copping 2-3 inches.

🌧️⛈️Huge rainfall across a big section of the SA/VIC over the past 24 hours! 8-day forecast has plenty more to come.

We’ve opened our first Melbourne office 🎉 Tom Kourambas is heading up the office as Senior Commodity Advisor, bringing global trading experience and a deep knowledge of the Victorian grain market. If you’re in Melbourne, pop into our new Richmond office and say hi 👋

AUS #barley prices are chopping sideways to start 2026, with the exception of northern markets where prices have continued firming. Strong demand from China resulting in the 2nd biggest Oct-Dec export program & a lack of grower selling has helped keep markets supported.

Our CFO and long standing markets man Tom Basnett penned this cracking article in 2023. Tom discusses the upside of outsourcing your weaknesses and focusing on your strengths. This is very often applicable to grain marketing.

The below article written by our COO @phelpstim in 2023 for our Australian Grain Review (AGR) magazine. Put/Call Options remain underutilized by Australian growers, especially pre-harvest. They are an excellent tool to manage price risk without taking on much washout risk.

The latest @BOM_au outlook is not very promising for autumn into winter. Accuracy of these models is questionable (think back to last spring which was forecast to be monsoonal that never eventuated).

Pulse edition🚢: #lentils: Exports continue their record run🚀, with SA leading the charge. Dec came in at 328kt with only 71kt out of VIC, shows how reluctant VIC growers are to selling! #chickpeas: strong month at 588kt for Dec, but we're seeing a noticeable drop vs LY.

📣🇦🇺ABS Dec25 Exports🚢: #wheat: 2.29Mt (🆙1.2MMT MoM), record Dec volumes for NSW🚀 #barley: 1.22Mt (🆙310kt MoM), near record Dec and mostly went to China🇨🇳 #canola: 603kt (⬇️25kt MoM), 60kt to China🇨🇳 Wheat & barley exports are strong. East Coast canola are very light.

SA bulk handler clocks biggest ever Jan for shipping - Grain Central graincentral.com/news/sa-bulk-h…