Match Engine

For context: Siebert in the Bundesliga this season averages 3.09 cards per game. UCL turns him into a different official. First leg data: Atlético scored 5 goals from 1.46 xG. Tottenham need 4 goals to progress. They won't. The red cards are the only real drama left.

Daniel Siebert takes charge of Tottenham vs Atlético Madrid tonight. UCL this season: 6.57 cards per game, 0.71 reds per game across 7 games. That's nearly 5 red cards in 7 UCL appearances. Atlético are 5-2 up. Simeone's teams don't do comfortable second legs.

The stat that stands out: 8.02 xA but only 5 assists. His created chances are worth 8 goals. Teammates have converted 5 of them. 4 goals himself, 3 of them away from home.

Declan Rice, Premier League 2025/26: 55 tackles. 59 key passes. 8.02 xA. 5 assists. 2 yellow cards. A midfielder doing elite defensive and creative work simultaneously, with 2 bookings in 30 games to show for it.

We had City at 47.5% to win last night. The xG backed it up. Over 13 UCL meetings, City have outplayed Madrid on chance quality in 9. Won 5 of them. Full UCL xG breakdown for all 8 QF sides: matchengine.pro

Madrid's conversion across the two legs: 5 goals from 3.04 xG. 1.64 goals per expected goal. City: 1 goal from 3.80 xG. 0.26 per expected goal. Most extreme case in our data: City had 3.28 xG against Madrid in the 2024 semi. Finished 1-1.

Man City had 2.47 xG last night. Real Madrid had 1.62. It finished 1-2 to Madrid. Over both legs: City 3.80 xG, Madrid 3.04. Aggregate: 1-5.

@FabrizioRomano @City_Xtra Across both R16 legs, Man City generated 3.80 xG to Real Madrid's 3.04 — and won the only group stage meeting between them too. No manager in the competition consistently creates better quality and gets punished for it more brutally.

🚨 Pep Guardiola on potentially leaving Man City with just one UCL title: “Oh, everybody wants to fire me, right?!”. 😁 “One day I will come here and say: Bye bye, guys! And still I'm here, one more year of contract…”, says via @City_Xtra.

@TouchlineX Arsenal conceded 3 goals across all 9 UCL games this season and scored 23. Whatever Pep showed last night, Monday's opposition is the best-organised defensive side in European football right now.

🚨🗣️ Pep Guardiola on the Carabao Cup Final vs. Arsenal: "On Monday, hopefully we WAKE UP, hopefully it's a sunny day, and we will continue." "We will play against the BEST team in England, the BEST team in Europe. Challenge them, how we are, competing with them". "After one or two weeks, we will play against them in the Premier League, and see. Sometimes they are better, so it's a good mirror to see what we have to do."

@TouchlineX In the R16, Real Madrid scored 5 goals from 3.04 combined xG across both legs — a 1.64 goals/xG conversion rate. Bayern will arrive at the Bernabéu knowing City generated 3.80 xG in the same tie and scored 1.

🚨🗣️ Vinicius Junior: "Bayern? Let's go for them."

@433 Arsenal: P9 W8 D1 L0, 23 goals for, 3 conceded — the only side in the last eight without a single UCL defeat this season. The other seven QF sides have all dropped a game; Arsenal haven't.

𝐖𝐇𝐎 𝐖𝐈𝐋𝐋 𝐖𝐈𝐍 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐂𝐇𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐈𝐎𝐍𝐒 𝐋𝐄𝐀𝐆𝐔𝐄❓ Quarter-finalists: 👇 🎟️ Arsenal 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 🎟️ PSG 🇫🇷 🎟️ Real Madrid 🇪🇸 🎟️ Sporting 🇵🇹 Tomorrow we will know the last 4️⃣ teams 👀

@TouchlineX Over two legs, Courtois conceded 1 goal from Man City's 3.80 combined xG — preventing an expected 2.80 goals above what the scoreline reflects. Hard to argue with the evidence.

• Reporter: "Arbeloa said Thibaut Courtois is the best goalkeeper in history…" 🚨🗣️ Pep Guardiola: "That’s normal… In the Etihad he's the best player on the pitch. That means how good we are."

@AFC_Adi06 Going into last night, the model had Arsenal at 54.9% home win favourites. The 2.49 xG they generated was the highest of their 4 UCL home games this season. Rice at this level makes those numbers very easy to trust.

Rice vs Leverkusen (H) Elite!

@OneFootball City generated 3.80 total xG to Madrid's 3.04 across the two legs — more than Madrid in the decisive second leg specifically (2.47 vs 1.62). Four UCL meetings between these sides this season: City won the group stage one, Madrid took both that counted.

Real Madrid have knocked Man City out of the Champions League four times in five seasons 😬❌ They must be sick of the sight of them 😡😤

@OptaJose @ChampionsLeague Madrid scored 5 goals from 3.04 xG in the R16 (1.64 ratio). PSG were even more clinical: 8 goals from 2.60 xG vs Chelsea (3.08 ratio). The two most ruthless sides in the competition, and they can't face each other before the final.

4 - Álvaro Arbeloa has become the first Real Madrid manager to win each of his first four matches in the knockout stages of the @ChampionsLeague. Stamp.

@Squawka Across both legs Arsenal generated 3.47 total xG to Leverkusen's 2.29, and converted 3 of theirs to Leverkusen's 1. The creation gap and the finishing gap pointed the same direction all tie.

Eberechi Eze's game by numbers vs. Bayer Leverkusen: 5 duels won 4x possession won 3 chances created 3 shots 2 touches in opp. box 2 fouls won 1 shot on target 1 goal Even William Saliba couldn't believe that finish. 😀

@WhoScored Sporting's 4.29 xG last night was nearly as large as Bodo-Glimt's entire two-leg total (2.40). The first leg 3-0 came from 1.39 xG — barely enough to justify 1 goal. Last night was the correction.

Maxi Araújo created 9 chances vs Bodoe/Glimt, no player has created more in a single #UCL match this season. 😳🔥

@TouchlineX PSG scored 5 on 1.55 xG in the first leg. If that game had run to expectation, it's closer to 2-1. Chelsea's xG efficiency delta this season is +0.30 — they convert well when they create. Terry's not wrong.

🚨📲 𝗡𝗘𝗪: John Terry with a motivational message on Instagram, ahead of Chelsea vs PSG.