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@LifeSciVC Assuming we don’t see a major merger announced by YE 2025, next year’s biotech M&A volumes will exceed $125bn
Pinning this 📌 $xbi $ibn
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Patients Capital Management LLC
2.9K posts
Patients Capital Management LLC
@PCM_bio
Long Biased Biotech & M&A | tweets not investment advice | #PCManiacs
New York, NY 가입일 Mayıs 2023
755 팔로잉3K 팔로워
What are you trying to say $abvx ? Talk to us 🪿
Patients Capital Management LLC@PCM_bio
Very nice beat and raise by $abvx
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@BussinBiotech No scarcity value in sub-$1bn EV biotechs from my perspective (and certainly not in microcaps)
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@PCM_bio Where is the "Scarcity for company X rises" post PCM? Are you slacking? How am I supposed to know if scarcity has risen for $IFRX or $ZURA or whatever else?
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$insm fail in HS
Now out-license DMD / ALS gene therapies.
Stay focused
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Scarcity value of $elvn rises
$tern
bamsec.com/filing/1193125…
Patients Capital Management LLC@PCM_bio
7% in $tern going into close Agree the rumored multiple relative to peak sales opp is pretty disappointing (if true). At same time, Scemblix is a pretty darn good drug, so there’s that $nvs $elvn could get interesting
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@RudyResearch @TweetAwayDK The opposite is true.. this company was bought, not sold
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@TweetAwayDK Companies get sold not bought. The seller has to think theyre getting more value than they can generate alone. So yeah $slno alone isnt worth even 52. It required a buyer to come in even then management is willing to take 52. Says a lot about the standalone value this company had
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Patients Capital Management LLC 리트윗함
quick chat with the Stat team about rare disease and fda. adam asked what i had to say about those who argue vinay brought rigor back to fda and that patient advocates had too much influence. what i wish i articulated better is what people who have been involved in rare disease trials will tell you is even if u have a cure, u often can't run a gold standard randomized trial to prove it if a disease is too rare, heterogenous, or slow. patient advocacy leaders understand this intimately well and regulators would make better decisions if they listen more to them rather than less.
canoebrookbl@canoebrookbl
Readout LOUD podcast: biotech investors' plea to Trump. @docrodwong thanks Rod for speaking up on behalf of the rare disease community! statnews.com/2026/04/02/rea…
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@MelvinRiskMgmt @phoenicianstrat The dude speaks
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@PCM_bio @phoenicianstrat Yeah? Well, you know, that's just like your opinion, man
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$COGT struggle with this one. Of course the $8bn+ rev opp for bezu across GIST and SM is compelling. BUT three major questions / points:
1) is bezu truly differentiated from Ayvakit (toggling of dose) or elenestinib follow-on from $sny ? Always challenging to displace entrenched (in indication they basically invented to boot)
2) $sny $bpmc was a single party process. Who would want to take on questions re: item 1 (via M&A premium) if they may not have been interested in SM in first place?
3) So should company just get valued on GIST? $6.7bn EV not that cheap given dynamics highlighted above.
Would be a much cleaner story if this were just a GIST company, imho $xbi $ibb
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@phoenicianstrat Referencing the $8bn they have in their investor presentation.. as in “of course it’s compelling! Of course!”
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@PCM_bio Bro - your first post literally said “Of course the $8bn+ rev opp for bezu across GIST and SM is compelling” - I implied $4B peak for COGT. At what multiple does m&a happen? 3x? Okay, 80% upside from current. Hyperbole??
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@phoenicianstrat These assumptions are hyperbole
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@PCM_bio Conservatively SM is $2B US TAM, and COGT splits w/ BPMC, so $1B per. Tho I’d argue COGT takes majority given Hemes want the most efficacious drug. That’s still $3-4B NPV each co for SM. COGT has GIST ($2-3B US peak); BPMC doesn’t. Thus, soft M&A dynamics are irrelevant to COGT.
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@phoenicianstrat Don’t think this is completely correct
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@PCM_bio Bezu ~50% relatively superior on same TSS. Ava 50mg is risky and done in <20% of pts due to heme tox; Ele also hits VEGF and PDGFR, and thus risk of heme tox persists tho not intracranial. Ele Ph1 inferior to Bezu Ph1. Hemes 80%+ of Ava scripts - they want the most efficacy.
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@phoenicianstrat Or because pharma doesn’t care about SM as much as investors do?
Would argue $sny more desperate than $bpmc at time of acquisition, although understand case for $bpmc to sell pre- $cogt data
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@PCM_bio BPMC single suitor due to inferiority to COGT, BPMC desperation to sell pre COGT Ph3 ISM data, and COGT has GIST, BPMC doesn’t. Clearly a more compelling takeout target with BIC profile across 3 indications, 2 of which are blockbuster.
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@Archimedes20311 Correct. $mdgl Rez is multi-blockbuster. These are not the same
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Guy pumps $MDGL at 12.5B mcap, but can't see how someone pays a premium to own GIST into perpetuity ($2B+/yr) and optionality in SM? Please stick to amateur hour sir
Patients Capital Management LLC@PCM_bio
$COGT struggle with this one. Of course the $8bn+ rev opp for bezu across GIST and SM is compelling. BUT three major questions / points: 1) is bezu truly differentiated from Ayvakit (toggling of dose) or elenestinib follow-on from $sny ? Always challenging to displace entrenched (in indication they basically invented to boot) 2) $sny $bpmc was a single party process. Who would want to take on questions re: item 1 (via M&A premium) if they may not have been interested in SM in first place? 3) So should company just get valued on GIST? $6.7bn EV not that cheap given dynamics highlighted above. Would be a much cleaner story if this were just a GIST company, imho $xbi $ibb
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Patients Capital Management LLC 리트윗함
pharma did this. say thank you.
Samuel Hume@DrSamuelBHume
How outcomes in relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma changed, from 1986 to 2026
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$biib buying $apls is so $biib
(Side note: TYFYS $biib)
Onward #PCManiacs
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@seedy19tron $Cnta notably not an $xbi component, like $tern
Just wait till we get a $mdgl $ptgx $insm $srrk $cytk $cogt $apge type takeout .. should set off a frenzy to extent macro is cooperative (impossible to predict of course)
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