PTARB-
148 posts


让我们做个简单的计算:
18 年的熊市,从 20000 跌到 3000,跌幅 -85%;
22 年的熊市,从 69000 跌到 15000,跌幅 -78%;
26 年的熊市,从 126000 跌到 35000 的话,跌幅 -72%。
我看跌到 35000 观点,属于正常范围,如果 60000 是底的话,跌幅是 -52%,这是你们太乐观了,不是我太悲观。
杀破狼 WolfyXBT@wolfyxbt
我预测本轮熊市 $BTC 的底部是 35,000。
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That’s what it comes down to
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Polymarket Quant Research Update
Another day of research and data collection.
Today’s progress:
✅ External odds collection pipeline improved
✅ Historical odds are now preserved instead of overwritten
✅ Hourly snapshots can now build long-term odds time series
✅ External odds validation completed successfully
✅ Automated deduplication implemented
✅ Research environment remains fully dry-run
Current focus:
• Market microstructure
• Price discovery
• Cross-market signals
• External odds convergence analysis
The most interesting part of prediction markets isn’t who wins.
It’s how information gets incorporated into prices before the crowd notices.
Still collecting data.
Still validating signals.
Still looking for statistically significant edges.
#Polymarket #PredictionMarkets #Crypto #QuantTrading #DataScience

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