Princeton Policy

@ChrisWickNews That help?

Trump backed himself into a corner… and now everyone pays the price. There are only 3 paths left — and none of them are good: Surrender? Total humiliation. War? Say hello to $150 oil and another disaster. Do nothing? Get ready for $6 gas and a full-blown recession. This didn’t just happen. It was choices. Decisions. Ego. And now regular Americans are the ones getting crushed by rising prices while politicians play games at the top. At what point do we stop pretending this isn’t affecting all of us?

@ChrisWickNews A/ Option 1: Victory through ground war. 6-12 months of prep, 3-4 months of fighting, 400,000 troops, 12-16 years of occupation, $4 trn in cost; Iranians hate us when we leave. Time-consuming, expensive, suicidal to US global obligations, but could work if China stays out.

@ChrisWickNews B/ Option 2: Reasonable negotiated settlement. Iran concedes on Strait, some give on nukes, $400 bn to Iran over seven years. Could be negotiated in a week, minimizes oil shock considerations. princetonpolicy.com/ppa-blog/2026/…

@ChrisWickNews C/ Reasonable settlement (cont'd): Leaves regime in place and well-insulated from external and internal pressures for a long, long time. US fires its lone silver bullet, doesn't get a satisfactory return, really. But the war is over and oil prices start to return to normal.

@ChrisWickNews D/ Option 3: Trump walks away. Iran keeps nukes and Strait. Sanctions remain in place, but Iran compensates with toll across Strait. Iran + Russia also control 2/3 of global oil exports and can set global oil prices with a wide latitude. No bueno.

@ChrisWickNews E/ US and Israel turn to serious regime change program which involves transitioning Iran from dictatorship to democracy via constitutional reform (The Twelve Amendments). A political coalition can be built around this and prove a spectacular success if completed.

@ChrisWickNews F/ Regime Change, 12 Amendments (cont'd): This requires time -- in the face of a rapidly developing oil shock. It requires intelligent structuring, developing expertise and sympathy of Iranian people and governance.

@ChrisWickNews G/ 12 Amendments (cont'd): Likely requires coercion, coopting or assassination of theocratic figures -- maybe Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, IRGC leaders. Conceptually like Iraqi 'deck of cards' in 2003. Possible, but not guaranteed, success.

@ChrisWickNews H/ 12 Amendments (contd): Requires persistence, scalpel precision elimination strikes. But both US and Israel have decades of experience. Requires intelligence, sound strategic thinking, nuance in negotiation. The White House has no one capable of this just now.

@ChrisWickNews I/ 12 Amendments (contd). Here's the white paper: princetonpolicy.com/ppa-blog/2026/…

@KyivIndependent Just wait until we inflict two years of recession across the globe.

⚡️US falls below Russia in survey of global perceptions. The global perception of the U.S has fallen for a third consecutive year, now ranking several spots behind Russia, a survey commissioned by the Alliance of Democracies Foundations revealed. kyivindependent.com/us-falls-below…