Arin Ruttenberg 🎗️

Key Events This Week: 1. Markets React to Trump's "48 Hour Warning" - 6 PM ET Today 2. March ISM Non-Manufacturing data - Monday 3. Trump's "Iran Power Plant and Bridge Day" - Tuesday 4. Fed Meeting Minutes - Wednesday 5. February PCE Inflation data - Thursday 6. US Q4 2025 GDP data - Thursday 7. March CPI Inflation data - Friday 8. April MI Inflation Expectations data - Friday 9. April MI Consumer Sentiment data - Friday We expect extreme volatility ahead.

The $VIX closed above 30 in each of the last 2 trading days. Historically, this level of fear in the Volatility Index has been associated with above-average future stock market returns (+21% over the next year on average). But the biggest gains have come with the $VIX above 40.

The S&P 500 is now down 9.8% from its January peak. This is the biggest correction since the tariff turmoil last April and the longest (61 days) since the 2022 bear market. $SPX

No one knows how long a correction will last when you're in it But buying stocks when they are down tends to be a good long-term strategy A look at what happens when you buy the stock market down 10%, 20% and 30%: awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/03/how-th…

Peter Lynch: "I went down more than the market everytime! I just don't worry about it"

“About once every two years the market falls 10%. Every six years the market’s going to have a 25% decline. That’s all you need to know. You need to know that the market’s going to go down sometimes. If you’re not ready for that, you shouldn’t own stocks.” – Peter Lynch

@benjamincowen My two favorites 🙌🏽

Check out the interview I just did with Ran where we talk about Bitcoin, Stocks, and metals

Bitcoin is already down 30% against Gold this year. Note that every midterm year, BTC has bled against Gold. Here is the BTC/Gold valuation over various midterm years: 2014: -55% 2018: -73% 2022: -64% 2026: -32% (so far)

BREAKING: Silver prices officially surge above $90/oz for the first time in history, now up another +25% this year. Silver's market cap is officially above $5 TRILLION for the first time in history.

Historical annual returns 1928-2025: Stocks +10.0% Gold +5.6% Bonds +4.5% Housing +4.2% Cash +3.4% awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/histor…

🚨 Is silver on track to become the world's 2nd-largest asset this year? Silver market cap is up to $4.24 trillion, making it the 3rd-largest asset in the world. It now trails only gold ($30.8T) and Nvidia ($4.6T). The gap between silver and Nvidia is just ~$370 billion, or roughly 8%. Silver has already overtaken Alphabet ($3.9T), Apple ($3.9T), Microsoft ($3.6T), Amazon ($2.6T), and Bitcoin ($1.8T) in 2025. Silver would need to rise above $80 per ounce again to claim the 2nd spot.

Gold soared more than 64% last year, it's best year since 1979 📈🤯🤑

@RonaldLamola I laughed out loud reading this 🤣 Please fix JHB thanks

The Government of the Republic of South Africa notes with grave concern the recent developments, which were confirmed by the United States. History has repeatedly demonstrated that military invasions against sovereign states yield only instability and deepening crisis. Unlawful, unilateral force of this nature undermines the stability of the international order and the principle of equality among nations. South Africa calls on UN Security the body mandated to maintain international peace and security to urgently convene to address this situation. dirco.gov.za/south-africa-u…

Silver

BREAKING: The Fed says it will begin purchasing US Treasury Bills on December 12th and will purchase $40 billion worth of Treasury Bills in 30 days.

A bubble can’t be a bubble without a valuation extreme, and so far, we don’t have one (at least not for the major averages or the Mag 7).  We can argue about the quality of earnings given the circularity of vendor financing and the use of depreciation timelines, but to my eye at least this is a cycle in which valuations are no longer the driving force.

The bubble watch hasn’t ended of course, but my conclusion remains that we are far from bubble-like extremes, measured as either time, price, or valuation.

2026 Warning 🚨: Going back to 1926, the S&P 500 has seen an average drawdown of 18.2% in the 12 months before midterm elections 📉 Going back 60 years, the smallest drawdown has been 7.4% while the largest was 41.8% 🤯 After the midterms, all is well, but before? 🤔👀

The US Bond Market is up 7.5% in 2025, on pace for its best year since 2019.

S&P 500 Cumulative/Annualized Total Returns by Decade... 1930-39: -9%/-1% 1940-49: +126%/+9% 1950-59: +492%/+19% 1960-69: +111%/+8% 1970-79: +78%/+6% 1980-89: +396%/+17% 1990-99: +433%/+18% 2000-09: -9%/-1% 2010-19: +256%/+14% 2020-25 YTD: +127%/+15% $SPX