Rethink Trade

Press Release: U.S. Trade Deficit Up, Manufacturing Jobs Down, Other Manufacturing Growth Measures Mixed in First Nine Months of 2025 📌 rethinktrade.org/press-releases…

Smart take in FT re. how Trump is using the tariffs he promised working Americans would stop unfair imports and rebalance trade to rebuild American manufacturing and create good industrial jobs …to instead leverage demands for goodies for favored firms, sectors, friends, family

@oren_cass Losing more US manufacturing jobs, a $62B bigger manufacturing trade deficit & $260B cut in factory investment brings no joy💔to those of us who support strategic tariffs to build US industrial capacity & diversify nations from which we import Spinning this as good is toxic...

👋@oren_cass: Do you support Trump cutting tariffs & suspending shipbuilding trade-cheating penalties on China? How about hitting Brazil (with which we have a trade surplus) with 50% tariffs over anger about the former rightwing president being sentenced for a coup attempt? 9

Trump has made tariffs very unpopular because instead of his “America First” promise to help workers, his tariff policy became Oligarch First. Mistargeted, ever-changing rates & grifty exceptions for friends & firms donating to his projects ruin possible manufacturing gains. 8/

Commerce Secretary Lutnick tried literally to trade away manufacturing – offering to cut U.S. tariffs on European steel and aluminum imports – if the European Union would roll back its anti-monopoly rules and online privacy and safety policy. 7/ politico.eu/article/us-ste…

Oren also tries to sane-wash the LibDay tariffs, saying their goal never was to balance trade or boost US industrial jobs but to force trade talks But Trump’s deals dont target trade abuses hurting US manufacturing. They make other nations dump laws Big Tech/Pharma/Ag oppose 6/

A cynical distraction is Oren & White House touting manufacturing productivity gains: ie. FEWER US INDUSTRIAL WORKERS while output stays steady/ grows! That wasn't a Trump promise to working America Nor is AI-driven stock market↗️hyped in the SOTU as somehow a tariff gain? 4/

Also distractions: On jobs, Oren says ‘too early to count’ & manufacturing loss slowed… OK, Trump’s promise of an instant boom of NEW industrial jobs was a lie. But for a year it was steady LOSSES OF ADDITIONAL US MANUFACTURING JOBS for 10 of 12 months since Liberation Day 3/

LibDay tariff defense has 2 themes: data cherry-picking & attempts to distract [🐿️!] Distraction Exhibit #1: Oren (& others) tout decline in the total US trade deficit in '25. But that’s from growing service sector exports. The MANUFACTURED GOODS TRADE DEFICIT GOT $62B WORSE 2/

Trump said “Liberation Day” would bring jobs/factories “roaring back.” Instead we lost 91K manufacturing jobs & factory investment⬇️$260B in ’25 vs. ‘24 It’s harmful when smart people like @oren_cass who want better trade policy provide cover for tariff misuse. Let’s factcheck🧵

Noteworthy that a high priest of neoliberalism and free trade, the Financial Time’s Martin Wolf, is again writing about threats posed by chronic severe global trade imbalances.

Agree w/ @SanderTordoir: Trump cutting China tariffs/trade enforcement is bad policy given huge 🇨🇳 production subsidies, $1.2T global trade surplus But how would closer US-EU trade club work given Germany's $234B 2nd largest 2025 trade surplus w/ world? open.substack.com/pub/commonplac…

Join us Tues. April 7 at 12:30PM ET for a webinar on the results to date of Trump’s 2020 US-Mexico-Canada Agreement. @RosaDeLauro, @RepDebDingell, and @RepDeluzio will join @WallachLori to discuss outcomes and necessary fixes. Register here: us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regist…

With Trump not using tariff leverage or other policy tools to target causes of our huge trade deficit/ deinsutrialization, no suprise that during 2025: - US manufacturing employment dropped 91K - the manufacturing trade deficit grew $62B Details & more 👇 rethinktrade.org/trumptrademanu…

Trump has had a BROLIGARCH FIRST trade policy Tariff leverage has been used to make "trade" deals focussed on deregulation for Big Tech abroad or making other nations pay more for Big Pharma meds. NOT to booost US manufacturing or industrial jobs 2/ cnbc.com/2026/04/01/war…

On "Liberation Day" eve, as @SenWarren demands @POTUS stop using tariff threats to attack other nations' kids online safety, privacy, anti-monopoly laws for his #BigTech donors, lets not forget Commerce Sec. Lutnick's offer to LITERALLY TRADE AWAY MANUFACTURING FOR BIG TECH...🧵

This is exactly right…and it’s a huge problem.

Read the full story in #TheEconomicPopulist This USMCA RRM labor rights enforcement case led to a groundbreaking access agreement between union Sindicato de Transportistas de las Cadenas de Suministro and the Hyundai trucking services firms. 💪💪👏👏 economicpopulist.substack.com/p/from-race-to…

Great story: A feisty independent Mexican union just beat Hyundai's crossborder trucking firm that fired unionists, etc Bosses push MX truckers to illegally move loads w/in US @RethinkTrade Reseach Dir. Daniel Rangel is the author & the lawyer on this USMCA labor rights case 1/

NAFTA killed. But the Great Recession led to longer lifespans. The researchers found losses in manufacturing employment that occur with trade were the difference. Non-manufacturing job loss didn't have the same impact. The report goes beyond correlation to discuss causation. 3/3