Seth Golden

Check out my latest macro-market video! ♦️The exogenous event plague of Midterm-elections 💎 Not yet oversold, but rampant fear 🔶How to engage the macro-market landscape 🔷 The economy, jobs, consumer $SPX $ES_F $SPY $NYA $QQQ $IWM $AAPL $SOXX $NVDA youtube.com/watch?v=AmxavA…

Hmmmm, are we really going to make the low of the year on the least amount of daily volume year-to-date? $SPX $ES_F $SPY $VOO $VIX $QQQ $NYA $IWM $MDY

I already posted P/C, denoting hedging activity, but these are better understood as indicative of bounce potential, not true oversold price trend and therefore NOT part of the consequential oversold stochastic framework, but sentimental framework. Sequencing is important, your're not really evidencing the consideration of sequencing for price trend, rather sentiment trend. I detailed last week and corrected Tom McClellan's suggestion of oversold consideration. Bounces are normal and there was a bounce, but it led to lower-low, more consequential and I'm afraid you may be making same error as Tom last week.

@SethCL I mean I could find many others but…

None? No oversold conditions? (Replies off) It’s like the only legit bull case PCR today was 1.10 FFS

@TexasOncologist Kindly unfollow me as I have failed to provide you with any alpha. Best of fortunes and health going forward. Thank you!

@SethCL There are plenty of technicals/stats that indicate we are oversold The current environment is one that doesn’t totally follow technicals and flows WTI seems to be a better predictor of market sentiment than anything else RN Ain’t nothing wrong with my P or Qs

$SPX $SPY No oversold conditions of consequence, yet McClellan Oscillator = ❌ Lower BB = ❌ 14-day RSI = ❌ Bullish % = ❌ % above 20DMA or 50DMA = ❌ Distance from 50-DMA = ❌ 1st close below 200-DMA, not usually last ✅ $VIX not back < 20, $VVIX not below 110 (Volma) (*All it takes, however, is one headline. Not indication of future returns*)

Inside last weekend's Research Report "In no way shape or form do we believe the end of the conflict... savvy for investors to consider more downside in the markets in the coming trading days/weeks, at least." And yet, we remain bullish for the year! finomgroup.com $SPX $ES_F $SPY $QQQ $IWM $IBIT $BTC $AAPL $NVDA $VIX $NDX $META $SOXX $XLF $JPM

Everything gets rather "mechanical" when $SPX finally drops below 200-DMA for the first time in 12-months. So if you're to rationalize and gauge sentiment, you're doing it wrong!

The dreaded Double-TOP $GLD vs $SPX Reflation, Middle East war, surging commodity prices, equity/crypto prices falling and Gold cant make new highs on an absolute or relative basis? Sitting around to discuss what it's going to take? You carry that burden, not I $ES_F $SPY $NUGT $GDX $BTC $QQQ $SLV $ETH $TLT

Percentage of mrkts in MSCI All-Country World Index above 50-DMA is both a global economic thermostat and a breadth gauge. Has plunged from 68% on Feb 26 to 12.8%. The plunge now favors bonds over stocks or reopening Strait of Hormuz... QUICKLY, as its hitting all mkts $SPX $SPY $ACWI $QQQ $NYA $IWM $DIA $ES_F $GLD $CL_F $VIX $DBC $SLV $BTC h/t @NDR_Research

How badly do investors/traders wish to hedge? Let's see if it settles down by end-of-week. But dannnnggggggg.... $SPX $CPC $CPCE $QQQ $SPY $VIX $VVIX $NYA $IWM $DIA $GLD $BTC $TLT

Financials well below 200-DMA, and falling Technology has breached 200-DMA, worsening breadth Nasdaq below 200-DMA, growth out of favor S&P 500 may have first close below 200-DMA in a year Now, high-yield credit spreads taking notice of macro-landscape. VIX > 25 $SPX $NDX $QQQ $SPY $VIX $XLK $XLF $JPM $HYG

That's not good for the Midterm-elections... but has anything been good optically, since 2025? House flip is almost a foregone conclusion? Senate has 4 seats, but historical stronghold.

Has only worsened each passing week in 2025 Financials breadth is at worst level since Liberation Day 2025 and at levels only seen 4 other times since Covid. (5% of stocks above 50-EMA) With Tech and $SPX about to break 200-DMA, broad mkt capitulation may occur. $XLF $JPM $GS $XLK $SOXX $SMH $META $AAPL $BAC $C $SOFI $WFC $KRE $KBX $SPY

High oil better for USA/growth stocks? ❌❌❌ 2022 = GDP down 2 consecutive quarters (unrevised) 2022 = Everyone hurt by oil prices, USA included 2022 = Growth stocks did the absolute worst 2022 = MAG-7 stocks down some 50% on average 2022 = favored equal-weight $SPX $QQQ $NDX $SPY $ES_F $VIX

Nothing but lower-lows and lower-highs in Technology breadth ALL YEAR LONG... the definition of a downtrend Breadth leads price. Downturn began in Dec 2025. Year-to-date 2026 down ~3% $SPX $SPY $XLK $AAPL $META $NVDA $ORCL $IGV $SMH $SOXX $MU $AVGO $QQQ $NDX

The Rule: The intermediate timeframe of the market is very messy. This rule has exceptions, but the presence of exceptions does not invalidate the rule.

@raikk61 @Bluekurtic @Chartfest1 300 and not news but well known, should be.

@Bluekurtic I think @Chartfest1 said there are only about 200 old retail investors voting for the survey so …

Are there too many bears in the market? AAII bearish sentiment just crossed 50% for the first time in over 6 months. Two months post such readings, S&P 500 $SPX was higher 12/14 times, with an average gain of 3.7%.

Alert 🚨 to Finom Group members at 10:36am