Serenity@aleabitoreddit
$SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year.
Keep seeing information published from nontechnical people who miss any nuances.
Here’s the reason why:
1. CW lasers are bottlenecked signaled by $LITE earnings.
Laser fabs are heavily allocated to EML likely from former $NVDA contracts.
-> Sumitomo/Furukawa = bottleneck
-> Win Semi = bottleneck
$SIVE does fab-lite, so are they a bottleneck?
Yes, $SIVE sits in the laser bottleneck since control output supply of CW lasers from Win Semi and other fabs from allocation way early on (CEO stated they working with more capacity from other players as well).
Perfect example is Kioxia/Sandisk. $SNDK controls NAND output, so they’re a bottleneck because they control final pricing.
Demand exceeding supply from Ayar, Jabil, other pluggable vendors + Nvidia NVLink CPO ecosystem… final laser supply owned by $SIVE makes Sivers a bottleneck.
$SIVE is also likely primary/sole source for Jabil, Gen-1 Ayar, $MRVL Celestial, and other hyperscaler asic/merchant CPO routes. So no way to get around it (can’t hot-swap single channel cw lasers with Sivers)
2. $SIVE is a chokepoint over CPO.
$NVDA use $COHR, $LITE (which likely sources external cw capacity from Japanese competitors)
$AVGO is likely vertically integrated as well.
However: the entire ecosystem around it from ASIC programs (Marvell, AlChip, etc) and merchant programs (Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence)
Are all likely designed around $SIVE.
Ayar for example, likely tried to multi-source with $MTSI / $LITE back in 2022 but their lasers probably couldn’t match the level of Sivers specification with arrays (removed Lumentum / Macom from their supply chain site recently)
If there’s no alternative at least for the initial generations (obviously they’re working to multi-source). That makes $SIVE a structural chokepoint to go through for lasers.
Even if you look at the 1.6T LRO $JBL designed, they achieved a “drastic moat” with performance built around $SIVE likely sole source.
$SIVE is also the foundry level reference laser design for $GFS, which your hyperscalers use like $AMD (likely using Sivers + maybe Ayar for gen1):
If every major player, who hasn’t achieved vertical integration (Nvidia/Broadcom) is using Sivers for CPO…
That makes them a chokepoint.
Just look at the entire CPO $NVDA NVLink ecosystem partners: every single one are all likely using Sivers. And they all use $GFS as well (where Sivers is default reference).
So $SIVE is both a chokepoint and bottleneck when CPO really scales up H2 2027, over one of the biggest architectural shifts of all time (near $0 -> $81B or $91B TAM in the next 1 1/2 years from GS research note)
This is why I say $SIVE looks like it could be the next $75B $LITE over the next couple years.
All of this should play out next year.
And it’s still trading less than a company with $50M in purchase agreements that buys Sivers lasers to repackage them.
