@admcrlsn What percentage of the electorate will be 50+ in the primary?
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onlinesniper7
938 posts
No surprise here, Lasher’s path to victory always was going to have to go through seniors and older voters.
aarpny@AARPNY
NEW: AARP NY/Siena Poll on #NY12 Primary 📊 Lasher 32% | Bores 21% | Conway 13% | Schlossberg 9%, among likely Dem primary voters 50+: With 21% undecided, older voters will decide this race. They expect action on affordability & retirement security.
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@tencor_7144 Sanchez would need like 45% from exterior to win overall, not happening.
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As expected, Sanchez is about to overtake Fujimori in the live vote tally.
Now it's about how big Fujimori's margin will be with the foreign vote. Only 2k of that vote has been tallied out of the >300k expected, and they should vote by about 2-1 in favor of Fujimori.
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@woke_death44 @InformaCosmos No, that would be 120-80=40, 120-40=80. Sanchéz needs to win 160-40 so 80%.
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@InformaCosmos Haciendo calculos actualmente la diferencia es de 120.000 votos, por lo que Sanchez necesita conseguir mas del 60% de dichos votos
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Ahora le quedan unos 600 mil votos sobre los que tiene ventaja.
Si se reducen 200 mil más y no ha volteado. Keiko ✅
Informa Cosmos@InformaCosmos
A JP ahora solo le quedan unos 750 mil votos pendientes sobre los que tiene ventaja.
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@chubakueno Cómo consideras el voto extranjero? ya que registra mayor ausentismo en comparación a la 1ra vuelta
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@chubakueno Thanks! They are also heavily from Lima so really there is no way of coming back for Sanchéz.
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@chubakueno Luis, how many raw votes will Keiko net in exterior according to your model please?
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Actualizado al 33%. Ire alcanzando a la web de la ONPE en conteo poco a poco.
Luis Rivera@chubakueno
Hoy en @Epicentro_TV ! Cuando regrese actualizo la web 🙂.
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@PollsPilot @Specops119 Then your model is wrong... Lima started counting faster so the advantage is still growing relatively, it wil soon stop and reverse
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@Alexanderisfun_ @PollsPilot Are you retarded? Her lead is insurmountable for him.
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@PollsPilot You are saying expected margin is 0,40, that is not 100k+ votes
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@Snow_Lover7 It can be premature? Yes, it can. My model gives the win for her? Yes, it gives. So I took the risk based on the numbers I got and projected it. She has a margin bigger than 100K votes in my model.
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WE CAN NOW PROJECT THAT KEIKO SOFIA FUJIMORI HIGUCHI WILL BE ELECTED PRESIDENT OF PERU!
Pilot Polls@PollsPilot
53,4 % IN Fujimori +562K Votes
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@chubakueno Fingers crossed, you must have put so much work into this so hopefully you will be vindicated!
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Ah... mi modelo sigue diciendo algo distinto a IPSOS y a DATUM. Bueno. Nos vemos al otro lado.
Luis Rivera@chubakueno
Listo! elecciones-peru.live
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@chubakueno And vote transfers from other candidates based on already counted interior?
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@chubakueno How is model predicting exterior when you do not have any data? Is Keiko getting around 66% like in 2021 as baseline?
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@PollsPilot Overall what is your modeled split for exterior Keiko/Sanchez in %
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Update in OUR Model:
Expected Result = Fujimori +0,30
Possible Results (will close from now on):
Sanchez +2,8 to Fujimori +3,5
Pilot Polls@PollsPilot
32,86 % IN
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"Cuando dices: 'No fui terrorista', ¿estás diciendo que los otros sí lo son?"
SinVergüenzas (2.0)@Sinverguenzas_P
Curwen responde a Jorge Nieto: "Cuando dices: 'No fui terrorista', ¿estás diciendo que los otros sí lo son? Estás cayendo en lo mismo que hacen estos grupos que están detrás de Fuerza Popular. No me parece una respuesta inteligente". Tags: #SegundaVuelta #ONPE #JNE #EleccionesPeru2026 Roberto Sánchez
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@tencor_7144 Keiko wins and Miller-Meeks loses in November, it is written in the stars
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