Tobin Farrand

The US Postal Service competes with UPS and FedEx. USPS owns a legal monopoly on your mailbox (neither UPS nor FedEx can use it). USPS lost $9B last year. UPS made $6B and paid $1.6B in taxes. Baring gross incompetence, these grocery stores will compete, but they will take far more resources from society than they contribute just like USPS.

New York City mayor Zohran Mamdani has announced the location of the city’s first publicly owned supermarket, marking a step towards delivering on his pledge to bring down the cost of food. The city will spend $30m (£22.3m) on the store, which is due to open next year at a marketplace in East Harlem, Mamdani announced on Sunday during an address to mark his first 100 days in office. He wants to open five of the stores - one for each of the city’s boroughs - before the end of his first term in 2029. They will operate without paying rent or taxes and pass those savings onto shoppers. During his address, Mamdani rebutted neoliberal arguments about the effectiveness of publicly owned businesses. "Some will insist that city-owned businesses do not work, that government cannot keep up with corporations," he said. "My answer to them is simple: I look forward to the competition. May the most affordable grocery store win." Mamdani has been quick to deliver on several of his major campaign pledges – many of them aimed at bringing down the cost of living – since taking office on 1 January. He announced the introduction of a free childcare scheme, intervened on behalf of tenants living in poor conditions and secured millions of dollars of restitution for workers. Former presidential candidate Bernie Sanders made a surprise appearance at Mamdani’s address. "I know that the mayor has been criticised and some say this is a radical idea," he told the crowd. "I'll tell you what is a radical idea: Giving tax breaks to billionaires. Throwing people off health care. That's radical. What's radical is starting a terrible war. That's radical. But providing affordable food to working families? That's not radical, it's exactly the right thing to do."

12,000 Brit’s were arrested last year for social media infractions. The distance between American culture and European culture and values has never been greater. The satire only works if the scenario is inconceivable. With Pakistani rape gangs in the UK and the Pope inviting Muslims to pray in the Vatican, everything is conceivable.

@TobyFarrand @eurofounder I hope most Americans understand satire and taking the piss 😂

My wife and I got mugged in Paris last week A man with a knife ran up to us next to Eiffel Tower "Give me your fucking phone right now" he said to me I handed over my Siemens cell phone immediately "Yalla, hers too" he shouted I raised my eyebrow "Did I notice a lovely Arabic accent, young man? I warmly said to him, and immediately felt ashamed for being scared This poor man is from abroad and simply still adjusting to the European culture "Take this too, my friend" I said and ripped the pearl necklace off my wife's neck "What the fuck are you doing?!" she started crying "Be quiet. This man is struggling. He needs it more than us" I said He took everything and ran away Sure, theft is never good, but I would rather get robbed in a diverse city, than be safe in a racist white one

I’m a big @JOBhakdi fan, but I think this is more complicated for the Chinese. Most ships loading in Iran bound for China are not flagged as Chinese. Most are not owned by Chinese companies and Mostar are will not want to run the blockade. They know they won’t be sunk, but they will be forever banned from US, Venezuelan and probably gulf Arab ports. Their insurance rates will go up permanently as they will always be at risk for seizure. Life and the value of the asset becomes complicated.

Surprise. I told you so yesterday. A blockade can’t work , because it requires the rest of the world to be ok with it - and they are not. Therefore , the blockade was just an excuse for an off ramp and to move away from military action.

@EmirzaZahnie @Globalsurv I wonder why China doesn’t think Oman controls the SoH. It seems arbitrary to say Iran controls it. Or perhaps the strongest controls it. That is a dangerous doctrine for a country dependent on sea trade.

@TobyFarrand @Globalsurv Malaysia and indonesia control strai of Malacca,Singapore is just a small tip below

🇨🇳🇮🇷🇺🇲CHINA has issued a strong warning to US reinstating that China has an energy agreement with IRAN and it ships will not be intercepted. Chinese Defense Ministry: ‘Chinese ships continue to move in and out of the waters of the Strait of Hormuz. We have trade and energy agreements with Iran, which we will respect and abide by. We expect others not to interfere in our affairs. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, and has opened it to us.’

@stengel If it expired after 10 years, it would be just as much of a failure. The Obama agreement would have expired last October and here we are.

You know what would be amazing if Vance and his team can negotiate an agreement where Iran doesn't enrich above 3.67% (far below weapons grade); gets rid of 98% of its stockpile of enriched uranium; has weekly inspections by the IAEA; keeps the straits open without charging anyone; and commits to all of this for at least ten years. Oh, yeah, that was the Obama Iran deal.

You are confused. While I can’t speak for MAGA, I think the general impression is that you are perfectly capable of defending yourself against a second rate power like Russia. Capability is not the same as will. Europe as lost its will. In 2 or 3 decades, Europe will be Islamist. It isn’t in the US interest to be aligned with a hostile ideology. Whether Europe speaks Russian or Arabic is not a decisive difference.

MAGA believes that Europe cannot defend itself without America. Here’s what they don’t understand: First. France and the United Kingdom possess 515 nuclear warheads and 8 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines. Second. Europe’s defense spending has reached €481 billion this year — more than Russia and China combined. The EU’s ReArm Europe plan will mobilize another €800 billion. Third. European countries have more than 1.7 million active military personnel. Russia has 1.3 million. Fourth. The air forces of the EU and the UK operate over 1,400 combat aircraft. Their navies include five aircraft carriers, more than 60 submarines, and over 120 frigates and destroyers. Fifth. Europe has more than 6,000 artillery systems — even before the largest rearmament wave since the Cold War. Poland alone is adding 212 new howitzers. Sixth. Britain’s SAS pioneered modern special forces. The U.S. later modeled its Delta Force on it. From the French Foreign Legion to Poland’s GROM — Europe’s elite units are among the most formidable in the world. Seventh. Europe already has joint military commands ready for action. The UK leads rapid response forces from 10 countries in Northern Europe and the Arctic. Finland alone can mobilize 900,000 trained reservists, all prepared for Arctic warfare. Eighth. Europe has its own satellite navigation system (Galileo), its own defense programs (75 active projects), and is building its own rapid deployment forces. The narrative of a “helpless Europe” was never really about defense. It was about keeping Europe dependent — buying American weapons, relying on U.S. intelligence, and following American foreign policy. Thanks to Donald Trump, that era may now be coming to an end.

@mr_mayank They better be agreeable or they will all be pushing up daisies.

Meet 🇮🇷 Iran’s FM Abbas Araghchi > Bachelor’s in International Relations > Master’s in Political Science > Phd in Political Thought from the 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 University of Kent > Fluent in 6 languages > Served as Iran’s ambassador to Finland & Japan and Deputy FM > Known as the Architect of Historic 2015 Iran Nuclear deal > Single handedly destroyed the arrogance of Trump & Netanyahu > Master of 6D Chess 🔥 This man has won billions of hearts across the world with his courage, strategic masterclass & calmness. Mad respect 🫡

@AriFleischer @grok how did the US help the UK during the Falklands war?

France says they want to play a leadership role in the Middle East. Let them start in their former (Christian-majority) colony/mandate of Lebanon. France should disarm Hezbollah. Beirut was the Paris of the Middle East until Jordan threw out the radical, violent PLO, which took over southern Lebanon in the 1970s. It was called Black September and it led to a 20-year civil war between Christians and Muslims in Lebanon. The Muslims largely won. Then came Iran and southern Lebanon and much of Beirut became home to Iran’s proxy militia, Hezbollah. If France wants to be useful, Macron should send in his military to help the Lebanese Army disarm Hezbollah, as required by UN resolution 1701. Why should Israel have to disarm Hezbollah? France wants to play a leading role. France claims it has a strong military. This is their chance to do something other than issue a communique. Let France lead the fight. Help Lebanon and get rid of Hezbollah. (The sad truth is France is too weak to do it, no one trusts them, and they’d rather issue statements than do anything concrete.)

Europeans are not our enemy. They are decidedly neutral. Europeans don’t view Russia as an enemy so why should the US? The US views Iran as an enemy, Europeans do not. We have diverging values. Europe is increasingly Muslim which makes involvement in the ME politically problematic. In the US, the rise of Islam is less accepted. So maybe the time for NATO has passed.

Dear Americans We Europeans are not the enemy Russia is Iran is Focus on winning Stop messing up what works

“As fast as they can” so 20 or 30 years? Not sure what bag the US will be holding. Perhaps a bag of gold? Eventually EU will figure out that not everyone thinks like them. Iranian leaders want to kill everyone who isn’t Shia. Arabs want to take control of your countries and force you to live under Sharia law. Russians only care about dominating you. China wants your money. In a European society, if you don’t defend yourself, it is ok because other Europeans aren’t trying to kill you. That is wonderful. Europe was great. But the rest of the world doesn’t work that way and now after a decade or so of open borders, Europe doesn’t work that way either. So good luck with those renewables and keep your head down.

@TobyFarrand @Pro__Trading The europeans are just going to pivot as fast as they can to renewables and leave the americans holding the bag. You maga fool

If Iran is able to charge $2 million per tanker, they're gonna make $280 million a day. That's $500 billion in five years. For comparison, the Obama administration gave Iran $1.7 billion in cash. Not great, guys.

The EU needs to re-read “The Prince.” By failing to acknowledge the principle of freedom of the seas, they may end up paying tens of billions to Iran, Oman and the US to navigate the SoH. The US doesn’t have any more strategic interest in Ukraine than the EU has. The EU obviously has little interest as 4 years has passed since the invasion and they still spend a pittance on defense. NATO says Iran having nukes is a problem for the US and Israel to solve. Only fair that the US says that Ukraine/Russia is theirs. Great if arrangements can be made for the EU to fund both through tolls on the SoH.

BREAKING: NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte flew to Washington to discuss Ukraine’s $60 billion defense requirement for 2026. He spent over two hours being dressed down about Iran. When he emerged, he told CNN the meeting was “very frank” and acknowledged that “some allies failed the test.” Trump posted in all caps that NATO was not there when the US needed them and would not be there again. Here is the part of this story that should stop everyone cold. Russia is earning an extra $150 million per day in oil revenue because of the Iran war. The Guardian reported $8 billion in additional fossil fuel revenue in just the first two weeks of the conflict, $900 million above normal. Carnegie Endowment estimates the windfall at tens of billions per annum if the disruption persists. The Swedish armed forces commander said publicly that Moscow is “pouring” that revenue directly into its war effort in Ukraine. Russian state television propagandist Vladimir Solovyov told audiences on March 2: “For our budget, the attack on Iran is a big plus.” And on April 7, Russia vetoed the UN Security Council resolution that would have reopened the Strait of Hormuz. The resolution was sponsored by Bahrain alongside Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. It had already been diluted three times, stripped of all offensive authorization, reduced to purely defensive coordination, narrowed to the strait alone. Eleven countries voted yes. Russia and China voted no. Pakistan and Colombia abstained. Russia’s ambassador said the resolution presented Iranian actions as the sole source of tension while ignoring US and Israeli strikes. China’s ambassador said it failed to capture root causes. They killed the only multilateral mechanism that could have reopened the strait without a bilateral US-Iran deal, ensuring the disruption continues, ensuring the windfall continues, ensuring the war funding continues. So the structural loop is this. Trump started the Iran war. Hormuz closed. Oil prices surged. Russia began earning an extra $150 million every day. Russia pours that money into its Ukraine campaign. NATO needs $60 billion to counter Russia in Ukraine. Trump demands NATO simultaneously support the Iran effort AND fund Ukraine. But the Iran war is financing Russia’s Ukraine campaign at a rate that dwarfs NATO’s incremental spending. And Russia just vetoed the resolution that could have ended its own windfall, because keeping Hormuz closed is worth more to Moscow than any amount of diplomatic credibility at the Security Council. Iran also exempted Russia from the Hormuz blockade. On March 26, Foreign Minister Araghchi announced that ships from five nations, including Russia and China, would be allowed to transit freely. Russia’s tankers move. NATO’s do not. Russia sells oil at tightened discounts. NATO buys oil at war premiums. Russia funds its army with the proceeds of a war that NATO is being punished for not joining. Rutte knows all of this. Which is why his post-meeting statement included a line most outlets buried: NATO’s security and Ukraine’s are “interlinked.” That word, interlinked, is doing the heaviest lifting in transatlantic diplomacy right now. It is Rutte’s way of telling Washington that the alliance cannot be tested on Iran and Ukraine simultaneously when the Iran war is funding the adversary that the Ukraine commitment exists to contain. The alliance is not failing because of freeloaders. The alliance is trapped inside a feedback loop where the war meant to demonstrate American resolve is generating the revenue that funds the threat the alliance was built to deter. And the country profiting most from that loop just vetoed the only vote that could have broken it. Full analysis - open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

@johnkonrad That and the antisemitism and Marxism bug me too.

Reason number 217 why I hate Ivy League schools: The problem with booking a very nice hotel on a discount app is there’s a high likelihood of being put in a wheelchair-accessible room. The problem with being put in a wheelchair-accessible room is the shower floods. That can be solved by building a dam with extra towels, but the real problem is that actual handicapped people use these rooms too. They can’t build a dam. So the room floods. And mildew grows under the carpet. Which is why these rooms almost always smell 🤢​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Ivy League schools with top architecture programs and hotel management schools like Cornell have had decades to fix this. They wave the flag constantly about helping minorities and disabled people but if they actually gave a F about people in wheelchairs, this problem would’ve been solved 20 years ago. Instead they just ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

@A_K_Mandhan @grok what is the oil export capacity of Saudi Arabia’s yanbu port

🚨 SAUDI ARABIA JUST BECAME THE BIGGEST WAR PROFITEER IN HISTORY Saudi Arabia is America's closest ally. And they are getting rich from a war America is fighting. Here is the proof. 💀 Saudi exports BEFORE the war: 6,660,000 barrels per day. 💀 Saudi exports NOW: 3,330,000 barrels per day. 💀 That is a 50% DROP. 💀 Oil price BEFORE the war: $67 per barrel. 💀 Oil price NOW: $130 per barrel. 💀 Saudi added $19.50 per barrel premium on Asian buyers. 💀 That is the HIGHEST premium in history. ⚠️ They are selling HALF the oil at DOUBLE the price with a RECORD fee on top. ⚠️ The math says they are making MORE money than before the war. ⚠️ The IEA called this the largest supply disruption in global oil market history. ⚠️ The supply loss is 10,000,000 barrels per day. OPEC+ fixed 206,000 of it. On purpose. Let that sink in. Now the part nobody will say out loud. Saudi bypassed the Strait of Hormuz entirely. Their East-West pipeline now carries 7,000,000 barrels per day to the Red Sea. Korean and Indian refiners are rerouting to Saudi's Yanbu port for the first time ever. Saudi does not need Hormuz open. Saudi was NEVER going to suffer from Hormuz closing. And Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain are PRIVATELY urging Trump to keep fighting Iran. They want Iran weakened further before any ceasefire deal happens. Because every week of war is another week of record oil prices. Every week of record prices is another week of record Saudi revenue. If Saudi wanted Hormuz reopened, why did they spend billions on a pipeline to avoid it? If Saudi was suffering, why are they charging the highest markup in history right now? If Saudi is a loyal ally, why are they privately pushing for more bombing of a country America is already bombing? Complete silence. This is not an oil story. This is not a US-Iran story. This is a war profiteering story. And the profiteer is the country hosting American military bases. i lose followers every time i post the hard truth.. and i post it anyway. follow if you respect that.

@JohnWight1 India and Germany are at war?

The civilisation that invented algebra is currently doing battle with the one that invented the hamburger. This is all you need to know.

Of course, this would result in either a collapse in AMZN share price as Bezos liquidates 5% of his holdings, or AMZN would have to pay a 5% dividend to fund the taxes. That is $110B per year in cash leaving the company. But they only made $77B in LTM. So how does this work? Of course AMZN value falls significantly. Everyone pays.

Jeff Bezos has $222 billion. If he paid my wealth tax this year, we could fund insulin in America for everyone who needs it plus free school lunch for every kid in Texas—and have plenty of money left over. And Bezos would still have $215 billion dollars to spare.

@awkd7er @TukiFromKL People expect TACO, but they should check with the cartels, Maduro, all the countries paying tariffs, illegal immigrants etc about that. Iran is buying a ticket to the 7th century. FAFO.

🚨BREAKING: iran just responded to the president of the united states with "we've lost the keys".. let me tell you why that's the most dangerous sentence in geopolitics right now.. trump goes on truth social demanding they open the strait.. and iran's official embassy tweets back a punchline.. like a teenager ignoring a landlord's eviction notice.. this is a country america couped in 1953.. sanctioned for 40 years.. assassinated their top general in 2020.. and bombed their bridges last week.. and their response to all of it is a meme.. that's a country that figured out the bluff.. they watched him give a 48-hour deadline and extend it 34 hours when nobody flinched.. watched him promise "all hell" and call a lid by 5pm.. watched him bomb a bridge because five days felt too slow and then beg for a deal by morning.. iran isn't afraid of the threat anymore.. they're afraid of taking it seriously and looking stupid when he backs down again.. you can't bomb a country into respecting you after they've already stopped.

@EYakoby @grok please translate in English

BREAKING: Basij forces reportedly discovered their own fighters killed by U.S. A-10 guided rocket strikes near the house where the second F-15E crew member had been hiding.