TradeACH

177 posts

TradeACH

TradeACH

@TradeACH

가입일 Aralık 2025
166 팔로잉39 팔로워
The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
Iranian oil revenues are surging: Estimated Iranian oil revenues are up +$25 million per day in March from the prior month, to $139 million per day. This comes as Iranian tankers are still transiting the Strait of Hormuz while most other Persian Gulf oil supply is still restricted. As a result, Iranian oil exports are exceeding the pre-war average of 2.2 million barrels per day. Furthermore, Iranian Light crude prices are trading just -$2.10 below Brent, compared to a -$10 discount before the war. Iran is also generating additional revenue by charging transit fees of up to $2 million per vessel for commercial ships crossing Hormuz. All while the US government is trying to limit the impact of the war on oil prices by temporarily lifting sanctions on a large amount of Iranian oil already on tankers at sea. Iranian oil sales are soaring.
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TradeACH
TradeACH@TradeACH·
The Real Choke Point in AI Isn’t Where You Think Everyone is debating who wins the CPU bottleneck: $ARM vs $AMD vs $INTC But the deeper answer might be simpler: $TSM wins no matter what. Here’s why: The AI stack is shifting: GPU → Memory → CPU But underneath all of it is one constraint: manufacturing capacity Even if: $AMD takes share $INTC turns around $ARM expands everywhere 👉 They still need $TSM to actually build the chips So the real structure looks like this: $ARM = architecture $AMD / $INTC = CPU execution $TSM = who enables everything AI agents = more steps More steps = more compute More compute = more chips → More chips = more demand for $TSM capacity The real bottleneck stack: GPUs (crowded) Memory (ran) CPUs (emerging) Manufacturing (always binding) Investment lens: $ARM $AMD $INTC = higher upside $TSM = wins regardless Bottom line: You can debate who wins CPUs. But if demand keeps accelerating: $TSM is the one printing no matter what.
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TradeACH
TradeACH@TradeACH·
The shift isn’t just “more AI” — it’s how AI is being used. Old model: prompt → answer (GPU-heavy) New model: task → multi-step execution That means: → scheduling workflows → calling APIs → validating outputs → retrying failures Those loops are CPU-driven, and agents can run them nonstop. That’s where the real scaling pressure is starting to show ( $ARM $AMD $INTC ) x.com/TradeACH/statu…
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Yiannis Zourmpanos
Yiannis Zourmpanos@yianisz·
This move isn’t random. $ARM didn’t just launch a chip, it validated the shift: agentic AI = way more CPU demand. Not less. More orchestration > more memory handling > more sequencing.. That plays straight into $AMD. EPYC is already taking share and if workloads become CPU-heavy again AMD is the cleanest lever in public markets. Everyone’s framing ARM as a threat. I don’t see it that way (yet). Hyperscalers don’t pick one architecture, they scale both. ARM grows the pie, AMD monetizes it. And AMD isn’t standing still either. “Sound Wave” shows they’re hedging into ARM anyway. So you get: real growth (34%), real FCF, real share gains… without ARM’s execution risk. ARM is the story. AMD is the trade.
Yiannis Zourmpanos tweet mediaYiannis Zourmpanos tweet media
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TradeACH
TradeACH@TradeACH·
The shift is subtle but important: Old AI = prompt → answer (GPU-heavy) New AI = task → dozens of steps → execution (CPU-heavy) That creates a multiplier effect on compute that most people aren’t pricing yet. We’re already seeing early signs with pricing + demand. Shared the full thesis + core tickers here: x.com/TradeACH/statu…
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Shay Boloor
Shay Boloor@StockSavvyShay·
$AMD and $INTC raised CPU prices again in March bringing 2026 increases to ~15%. Lead times have also stretched from 1 to 2 weeks to as long as six months signaling the CPU shortage is getting worse.
Shay Boloor tweet mediaShay Boloor tweet media
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TradeACH@TradeACH·
Most people still think AI demand = GPUs. But once you move to agents (multi-step tasks, API calls, retries, orchestration), the bottleneck shifts to execution — and that’s CPU-driven. 1 user request can turn into 50–100 internal operations. That’s where the demand explosion is coming from. Full breakdown + how to position: x.com/TradeACH/statu…
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
$ARM expects $15B in annual revenue from the the AGI CPU: "The company projects that the new chip business will generate over $15 billion in annual revenue" within the next 5 years. 5 times current revenues (~$25B revenue)... Arm probably deserves to be up more than 5% on this news if they're multiplying their revenue with a new product overnight?
Serenity tweet media
Serenity@aleabitoreddit

$ARM announces new AI chip called "AGI CPU" According to Arm, the company "Expects it to add billions in annual revenue". - 136 Neoverse V3 cores, built on $TSM 3nm process - Custom-built for "agentic AI" workloads with OpenAI and $META as lead customers. $AMD and $INTC have recently received a tailwind from enterprise CPU shortage. You might be wondering: Does ARM Solve the Shortage? Architecturally, yes. Physically, no. Main beneficiary is $TSM, but this is a large tailwind for $ARM moving forward as they pivot from licensing.

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TradeACH@TradeACH·
The CPU Bottleneck Trade (Why This Gets Bigger From Here) If you understand this one concept, you’ll understand the next phase of AI: AI demand is not linear anymore — it’s exponential. And CPUs sit right in the middle of that explosion. Let’s break it down 👇 The “Agent Multiplier” Effect Humans: → Search once → Make a decision → Done AI agents: → Search 50 times → Compare options → Retry failures → Optimize results → Execute tasks And they do it in seconds. That means: 1 user → 100s of operations 100 users → 10,000+ operations Millions of users → system overload Where those operations go, Not the GPU. They hit: → CPUs → Networking → I/O systems → Data pipelines Every step outside token generation = CPU workload And here’s the part most people are missing We are STILL early. Right now: → Very few people use AI agents → Setup is still complex → Limited integration into daily life But soon: → Apple integrates agents into iPhone → Every app has autonomous workflows → Every device runs background AI tasks That’s when demand explodes. Now combine that with supply reality Semiconductors don’t scale overnight. The industry spent years optimizing for: → GPUs → Accelerators → Memory CPUs were not the priority. So now we have: → Demand accelerating fast → Supply lagging behind → Manufacturers reallocating capacity This creates a classic bottleneck setup And we’re already seeing signs: → Intel and AMD raising CPU prices → Data center chips prioritized over consumer → Allocation tightening You only get price increases when: Demand > Supply Why this trade could be massive Because CPUs aren’t just “another component.” They are: → The orchestrator → The execution layer → The system backbone Without CPUs, AI agents don’t function. And the direction is clear More agents → more steps More steps → more CPU load More CPU load → more demand More demand → supply stress This feedback loop hasn’t even fully started yet. Investment lens The market just spent 2 years chasing: → Compute (GPUs) → Memory The next phase is: → Execution infrastructure And CPUs are at the center of it. AI is shifting from: → “Thinking fast” To: → “Doing more” And doing more requires coordination, logic, execution, retries, and interaction with the real world. That’s not a GPU problem. That’s a CPU bottleneck. And it’s just getting started.
TradeACH tweet media
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TradeACH
TradeACH@TradeACH·
The Next AI Bottleneck Nobody Is Talking About Everyone chased GPUs. Everyone chased memory. But the next AI bottleneck is already forming — and almost no one is positioned for it. It’s the CPU. Here’s what’s happening 👇 Over the past 2 years, AI has been simple: → Input prompt → GPU generates output → Done That’s why all the money flooded into GPU compute + memory. But AI is evolving. We’re moving from “answers” → “actions.” Instead of: “What should I eat tonight?” You’ll say: “Plan my 10-day Spain trip, book flights, choose hotels, optimize pricing, and sync my calendar.” That’s not one request. That’s dozens (or hundreds) of chained operations. And this changes EVERYTHING. Why GPUs are no longer the only bottleneck GPUs still generate tokens. But now the system needs something else: → Task orchestration → API calls → Data retrieval → Memory handling → Scheduling → Logic + validation → Error handling + retries That’s all CPU-driven workload. The GPU “thinks.” The CPU executes reality. And execution is becoming the dominant problem. The real shift: AI Agents AI isn’t just responding anymore — it’s working. Agents: → Run continuously → Retry instantly → Execute multiple paths → Interact with real systems 1 user request = 100+ internal operations That’s the multiplier most people are missing. And every one of those operations hits the CPU. This is the key insight The bottleneck is no longer: “How fast can AI think?” It’s now: “How efficiently can AI DO?” That shift moves the pressure away from GPUs… and directly onto CPUs. Why this matters for investing We’ve already seen how bottlenecks play out: → GPUs → NVDA exploded → Memory → MU / WDC / SNDK ran hard Now we’re entering: → CPU-constrained infrastructure And the market hasn’t fully priced it yet. Early signals (this is important) CPU prices are already rising Data center demand accelerating Supply wasn’t built for this shift Capital was diverted away from CPUs during GPU boom That’s textbook supply-demand imbalance Which = pricing power + margins Bottom line AI is no longer about generating answers. It’s about executing complex, multi-step workflows in real time. And the system that coordinates all of that? The CPU. This is how bottlenecks rotate. And this is how the next trade begins.
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TradeACH
TradeACH@TradeACH·
@aleabitoreddit @beauty_oe Already starting to see posts about how CPU's are "the next bottleneck", assume this will continue. Wiill $ARM be the main way you play this CPU bottleneck? Thanks
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
@beauty_oe SKハイニックスやサムスン以来、大型株でこんなにワクワクしたのは久しぶり! $ARM のAI CPUの収益拡大予想、マジでヤバいね。
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みみりん@投資系女子
🌟セレ様PF更新 私は $ARM (Arm Holdings) を139ドルでロングしました。 市場が「トレーニング中心 → 推論」へシフトしていく中で、時価総額1430億ドルでも十分に魅力的なロングだと考えています。 その後は、ARMのAI向けCPUが推論市場を侵食し、 $NVDA のシェアを食っていく展開。 特に、LLMがより軽量化していけば、その流れは強まるはず。 それでも「売上250億ドル(現在の約5倍)」という予測は、リスク・リターンを正当化するにはすでにかなり強気すぎる前提だと思います。
Serenity@aleabitoreddit

FYI: I went long on $ARM at $139. Genuinely a compelling long at $143B MC as markets shift more from training -> inference. Then $ARM AI CPUs cannibalize the market for inference and $NVDA market share. Especially as LLMs get more lightweight. The projections to $25B/revenue (5x revenue) are already insane to justify risk-reward.

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TradeACH@TradeACH·
$MSFT basing here, looks attractive for a trade
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TradeACH
TradeACH@TradeACH·
Fascinating the grift behind the grift behind the Taxes one of the most important reads I’ve ever found
John Ʌ Konrad V@johnkonrad

WeLL @PeteButtigieg WaS GiVeN $2 TRiLLioN To Fix RoaDS BuT JoHN He DiDN’t SPeND iT aLL This is a HUGE part of the Democrat grift. Probably the biggest grift in of all. And it needs to be called out. Democrats appropriate trillions of dollars then claim they never spent the money. First: prove to me it’s still in the Treasury. Just because funds weren’t directed to the projects they were supposed to go to doesn’t mean the money wasn’t spent elsewhere. But even the money that genuinely sits unspent is a grift. Here’s why. When Congress appropriates billions, that money doesn’t appear out of thin air. The Treasury has to borrow it by auctioning government bonds to investors, both domestic and FOREIGN. Those investors expect to be paid back with interest. Here’s how it actually works: Congress appropriates billions. Treasury auctions bonds to raise the cash. Investors buy the bonds. The money goes into Treasury accounts. Interest starts accruing immediately, whether the money is spent or not. In 2024 alone, the federal government paid almost a Trillion in interest on the national debt. That’s 14% of the entire federal budget going to bondholders, not roads, not ships, not defense. Debt service. $892 that’s enough to build 60 nuclear aircraft carriers every year. So money that’s “just sitting there” unspent is costing taxpayers billions in interest every single year. You’re paying to borrow money that nobody is using. Why would Democrats want money sitting there? Because flooding the system with borrowed money drives inflation. And inflation is a wealth transfer machine. It makes asset holders richer and everyone else poorer. Poorer Americans need more government services, which requires bigger government, which is exactly what Democrats want. It’s a self-reinforcing cycle. Here’s a simple example. Say you buy a house for $1M and your salary is $100K. It takes you 30 years to pay it off. Now massive inflation kicks in and the dollar loses 90% of its value. Your inflation-adjusted income is the same, but your paycheck now reads $1M a year. Your mortgage is still $1M. You can pay it off almost overnight. Same principle works for the donor class. A congressman’s biggest donor buys a supermarket chain with $1B in debt. Severe inflation means he charges far more for groceries, but his debt stays the same. He gets rich. And of course he tells the congressman all about it, so they can buy stock in the chain and make millions. Now here’s the real play. That appropriated money is still sitting in Treasury accounts. Republicans won’t spend it. But in four or eight years, much of it will still be there, waiting for Democrats to direct it to allies. And that’s an even better grift. If you appropriate new money, people scrutinize it. Hearings. CBO scores. Press coverage. But if money has been sitting idle for years, nobody cares. In fact, bureaucrats will encourage you to spend it because everyone wants idle obligations off their books. And if they are really eager to get the money off their books maybe they find a way to give it to USAID or the CIA to spend overseas. The appropriation is the grift. Not the spending. The borrowing happens the moment Congress passes the bill. Interest starts accruing that day. Whether a single dollar reaches its intended purpose is almost beside the point. The debt is already on your tab. Just saying “we didn’t spend it” is like maxing out your credit card and telling your wife you didn’t spend the money because the shopping bags are still in the trunk.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ And the economists even invented a new theory to help Dems justify this: Modern Monetary Theory MMT is purposely complicated but it basically says a government that issues its own currency cannot run out of money the way a household can, so the real limit on spending is inflation, not insolvency. And inflation is good so spending is good 🫠🫠 Biden’s top economist was a huge MMT fan.

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TradeACH
TradeACH@TradeACH·
Excellent assessment of possible outcomes in Iran Watch the full video here youtu.be/Im08lE__mu0?si…
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The Daily Signal@DailySignal

Victor Davis Hanson: Why Success Against Iran Doesn’t Guarantee Victory As the Israeli-United States effort to emasculate Iran concludes its third week, it’s left in a standoff period. With Iran having no navy, air force, or missile defenses, and an army facing no ground opposition, they’ve gridlocked the conflict, explains @VDHanson. “The thing to remember, I think, historically, is that tactical success is not necessarily equivalent to strategic victory or resolution. By that, I mean, we had impressive tactical victories in Iraq and Afghanistan… but we did not have a plan of strategic resolution…. We’re not going to go in on the ground [in Iran.] All we can do is emasculate the theocracy.”

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TradeACH
TradeACH@TradeACH·
@EricLDaugh You have to be able to trade oil outside TradFi hours — that’s the whole game here. The move doesn’t happen when everyone’s watching. How I’m playing it: x.com/tradeach/statu…
TradeACH@TradeACH

$USO #OIL I’m looking to get long oil here — but not yet. I want another pullback over the next few days before stepping in. When I do take it, it’ll be on platforms like Hyperliquid and MEXC — because the key edge here isn’t just direction, it’s timing + access. My thinking is pretty straightforward: •Geopolitics is driving this, not fundamentals in the short term •The U.S. (and Israel) tends to talk markets down during trading hours, then act when liquidity is thinner •Most traditional brokers shut down over the weekend → you’re stuck if something happens •But platforms like HL + MEXC trade 24/7, which is where the real moves can happen So the setup I’m watching: •A bit more downside in oil → that’s where I want to enter •Continued headlines about “de-escalation”, “talks”, etc. during the week (keeps pressure on price) •Then a real risk of weekend escalation when traditional markets are closed •If that happens, oil likely spikes hard → that’s where I’d look to take profit The pattern has been pretty consistent: •Calm narrative during market hours •Action when markets can’t fully react •Then some version of “we’re in control” before the next open That’s why venues like Hyperliquid and MEXC matter — being able to trade through the weekend is the entire edge on this kind of setup.

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Eric Daugherty
Eric Daugherty@EricLDaugh·
🚨 HOLY SMOKES. President Trump just said Iran's leaders sent him a "present" as part of proving who is really in control The present, related to oil and gas, arrived today, worth a "tremendous amount of money" "They gave us a present, and the present arrived today. It was a very big present, worth a tremendous amount of money." "And I'm not going to tell you what that present is, but it was a very significant prize." "They gave it to us, and they said they were going to give it, so that meant one thing to me — we deal with the right people." "No, it wasn't nuclear-related. It was oil and gas-related, and it was a very nice thing they did." "But what it showed me is that we're dealing with the right people."
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TradeACH@TradeACH·
@MarioNawfal You have to be able to trade oil this weekend — that’s literally where the move happens. If your broker closes, you’re already too late. Here’s the setup & how to do it: x.com/tradeach/statu…
TradeACH@TradeACH

$USO #OIL I’m looking to get long oil here — but not yet. I want another pullback over the next few days before stepping in. When I do take it, it’ll be on platforms like Hyperliquid and MEXC — because the key edge here isn’t just direction, it’s timing + access. My thinking is pretty straightforward: •Geopolitics is driving this, not fundamentals in the short term •The U.S. (and Israel) tends to talk markets down during trading hours, then act when liquidity is thinner •Most traditional brokers shut down over the weekend → you’re stuck if something happens •But platforms like HL + MEXC trade 24/7, which is where the real moves can happen So the setup I’m watching: •A bit more downside in oil → that’s where I want to enter •Continued headlines about “de-escalation”, “talks”, etc. during the week (keeps pressure on price) •Then a real risk of weekend escalation when traditional markets are closed •If that happens, oil likely spikes hard → that’s where I’d look to take profit The pattern has been pretty consistent: •Calm narrative during market hours •Action when markets can’t fully react •Then some version of “we’re in control” before the next open That’s why venues like Hyperliquid and MEXC matter — being able to trade through the weekend is the entire edge on this kind of setup.

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Mario Nawfal
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal·
🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 According to multiple U.S sources, at least 7,000 marines and up to 3,000 paratroopers are deploying to the Middle East. An unspecified number of special forces (75th Rangers, Delta Force, 160th SOAR, SEALs) are also reportedly being deployed. If Trump's talks fail, it looks like he's getting ready to drop the hammer with boots on the ground. Source: @WarMonitor3
Mario Nawfal tweet mediaMario Nawfal tweet media
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal

🇺🇸🇮🇷 U.S. is quietly prepping possible boots on the ground moves inside Iran Planners are gaming out paratroopers seizing Kharg Island (90% of Iran’s oil exports), Marines grabbing key islands around the Strait of Hormuz, and special forces raiding nuclear sites. Why this is important? This jumps way past airstrikes into direct land ops. Geopolitical turning point: Day 25 and “no boots on the ground” is suddenly looking flexible. Could force Iran to fold fast or turn this war into a full-blown regional nightmare. Source: War Monitor

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TradeACH
TradeACH@TradeACH·
@KobeissiLetter Market believes the “pause” Oil trades the risk That gap is where the move comes from. have to be able to trade oil after hours this weekend here’s how to do it x.com/tradeach/statu…
TradeACH@TradeACH

$USO #OIL I’m looking to get long oil here — but not yet. I want another pullback over the next few days before stepping in. When I do take it, it’ll be on platforms like Hyperliquid and MEXC — because the key edge here isn’t just direction, it’s timing + access. My thinking is pretty straightforward: •Geopolitics is driving this, not fundamentals in the short term •The U.S. (and Israel) tends to talk markets down during trading hours, then act when liquidity is thinner •Most traditional brokers shut down over the weekend → you’re stuck if something happens •But platforms like HL + MEXC trade 24/7, which is where the real moves can happen So the setup I’m watching: •A bit more downside in oil → that’s where I want to enter •Continued headlines about “de-escalation”, “talks”, etc. during the week (keeps pressure on price) •Then a real risk of weekend escalation when traditional markets are closed •If that happens, oil likely spikes hard → that’s where I’d look to take profit The pattern has been pretty consistent: •Calm narrative during market hours •Action when markets can’t fully react •Then some version of “we’re in control” before the next open That’s why venues like Hyperliquid and MEXC matter — being able to trade through the weekend is the entire edge on this kind of setup.

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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
BREAKING: US oil prices drop as low as $86.50/barrel on reports that the US is seeking a one-month ceasefire with Iran.
The Kobeissi Letter tweet media
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TradeACH@TradeACH·
@CRUDEOIL231 Markets getting whiplashed by mixed signals out of DC right now That’s not stability… that’s setup. x.com/tradeach/statu…
TradeACH@TradeACH

$USO #OIL I’m looking to get long oil here — but not yet. I want another pullback over the next few days before stepping in. When I do take it, it’ll be on platforms like Hyperliquid and MEXC — because the key edge here isn’t just direction, it’s timing + access. My thinking is pretty straightforward: •Geopolitics is driving this, not fundamentals in the short term •The U.S. (and Israel) tends to talk markets down during trading hours, then act when liquidity is thinner •Most traditional brokers shut down over the weekend → you’re stuck if something happens •But platforms like HL + MEXC trade 24/7, which is where the real moves can happen So the setup I’m watching: •A bit more downside in oil → that’s where I want to enter •Continued headlines about “de-escalation”, “talks”, etc. during the week (keeps pressure on price) •Then a real risk of weekend escalation when traditional markets are closed •If that happens, oil likely spikes hard → that’s where I’d look to take profit The pattern has been pretty consistent: •Calm narrative during market hours •Action when markets can’t fully react •Then some version of “we’re in control” before the next open That’s why venues like Hyperliquid and MEXC matter — being able to trade through the weekend is the entire edge on this kind of setup.

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JH
JH@CRUDEOIL231·
It seems their deception operation suffered from a serious lack of coordination, didn't it? According to their claims, Iran is completely defeated and wants to negotiate, yet it's the US that's proposing a one-month ceasefire? I must be the only one who feels like something doesn't add up. Btw this feels like total deja vu. I saw this same comedy countless times just a week before the war broke out—the blatant discrepancy between words and actions. The Marines and paratroopers have already set off for the Middle East—all in the name of 'peace,' of course. #oott #iran
JH tweet mediaJH tweet media
FinancialJuice@financialjuice

⚠ BREAKING: Israeli Channel 12: A month-long ceasefire will be announced according to a mechanism being worked on by Wittkov and Kushner.

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TradeACH@TradeACH·
This is a timing + volatility trade, not a “buy and hold oil” idea. Wrong entry = dead money Wrong venue = no trade at all Waiting for the dip matters just as much as the thesis.
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TradeACH
TradeACH@TradeACH·
$USO #OIL I’m looking to get long oil here — but not yet. I want another pullback over the next few days before stepping in. When I do take it, it’ll be on platforms like Hyperliquid and MEXC — because the key edge here isn’t just direction, it’s timing + access. My thinking is pretty straightforward: •Geopolitics is driving this, not fundamentals in the short term •The U.S. (and Israel) tends to talk markets down during trading hours, then act when liquidity is thinner •Most traditional brokers shut down over the weekend → you’re stuck if something happens •But platforms like HL + MEXC trade 24/7, which is where the real moves can happen So the setup I’m watching: •A bit more downside in oil → that’s where I want to enter •Continued headlines about “de-escalation”, “talks”, etc. during the week (keeps pressure on price) •Then a real risk of weekend escalation when traditional markets are closed •If that happens, oil likely spikes hard → that’s where I’d look to take profit The pattern has been pretty consistent: •Calm narrative during market hours •Action when markets can’t fully react •Then some version of “we’re in control” before the next open That’s why venues like Hyperliquid and MEXC matter — being able to trade through the weekend is the entire edge on this kind of setup.
TradeACH tweet media
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