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@HDergler @PeterDiamandis Agreed, wait for the dip, last thing you want is to become exit liquidty. Nobody knows when the bottom is, thats what everyones wondering.

I think all three will be definite buys.. but I think they IPO into retail, cash out massively and the entire market crashes almost simultaneously so they can blame the crash and people won't look too hard at them draining liquidity could be an extremely lucrative short if timed right will go in heavy at the bottom if I'm smart enough to know where it is a year or so from now

OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX. Three of the most important companies in human history. All are going public within months of each other. These IPOs will be unlike anything in the history of financial markets.

@BullTheoryio I don’t think people understand how weird this gets if the same dollar is investment capital, cloud revenue, backlog, and then a valuation markup. That is not “fake” in the legal sense. It is worse. It is structurally accepted until cash flow refuses to play along.😂😂

🚨 THE ENTIRE AI BOOM MIGHT BE BUILT ON FAKE REVENUE. Latest corporate filings show that OpenAI and Anthropic alone make up over half of the entire $2 trillion future cloud backlog held by Microsoft, Oracle, Google, and Amazon. This massive pipeline is actually being created through a circular accounting trick called a round trip revenue loop. But how it works ? A tech giant gives billions of dollars to an AI startup as an "investment". But hidden in the contract is a strict rule forcing the startup to hand that exact same money straight back to the tech giant to rent their computer servers. Look at the documented case of Microsoft and OpenAI. When Microsoft invested $13 billion into OpenAI, it didn't just give them cash; it gave them "cloud credits" to use Microsoft servers. OpenAI used those exact credits to train its AI models, and Microsoft then turned around and recorded that server usage as brand new "cloud revenue" from a customer. The tech giant is literally paying itself with its own money and calling it a sale. This is why OpenAI’s annual cloud bill has ballooned to over $60 billion, double its actual revenue of $25 billion, kept alive solely by this recycled funding loop. Anthropic runs the exact same play, spending $2.66 billion on Amazon Web Services in just nine months, which was basically 100% of all the money it earned at the time. This manufactured demand triggers a second accounting trick where tech giants book massive paper profits. Every time a startup gets a higher value from a new funding round, the tech giant updates the value of its investment on its books and counts that unearned paper gain as direct profit. In Q1 2026, Alphabet reported a record $62.6 billion profit, but $28.7 billion nearly half, was just a paper markup on its Anthropic investment. In the same quarter, Amazon reported $30.3 billion in profit, but $16.8 billion of it was just an Anthropic paper gain. While Amazon reported record profits, its actual free cash flow collapsed 95% to just $1.2 billion because it had to spend $44.2 billion in real cash to build physical data centers. This has created a massive danger where these giant companies rely heavily on just one or two unstable startups. Microsoft has 49% of its $627 billion future backlog tied to OpenAI, while Oracle has an incredible 54% of its entire $553 billion pipeline relying on OpenAI alone. This perfectly mirrors the 2001 dot-com crash when Global Crossing and Qwest Communications swapped identical fiber-optic network capacity with each other just to book fake sales. Qwest had to erase $1.4 billion in fake income, and Global Crossing went completely bankrupt. The only difference is that the dot-com swaps were illegal, but today's AI loop is fully legal under current accounting rules. This legal loop inflates tech company stock prices, forcing automatic retirement accounts and index funds to buy even more of these tech stocks. It is a self feeding loop where investments, sales, and stock prices all go up on paper without the AI technology ever making real cash profits.

I’m not shocked by the deal. I’m shocked anyone still thinks “AI safety” was ever going to stay separate from state power. The lab with the best compliance story was always going to become the easiest AI vendor for government to justify. That’s the part people should sit with, shits too powerful.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Trump administration and Anthropic finalizing deal to let US spy agencies use its AI tools.

@SIGKITTEN We all remember when Anthropic’s whole pitch was “we’re the careful AI lab.” Now the endgame is spy agencies, defense contracts, and a $900B valuation. Funny how fast “AI safety” becomes “national security” when the checks get big enough lol😒.

oh no what happened to all the principals and morals from last month

@code_star In 2017 it meant “a model can beat your syntax.” In 2026 it means $NVDA turned your whole profession into a benchmark test. I still think good engineers win, but average code is officially a commodity now.

This insult is so much meaner in 2026 than 2017

@TheGeorgePu I’d let an agent move money before I’d trust most people to do it manually. The uncomfortable part is the “human check” is only meaningful if the human actually understands the trade. Otherwise the AI already made the decision and the person is just clicking approve with vibes.

Would you let an AI agent move your money on its own? Coinbase, Stripe, Google, Visa are betting you will. All four shipped agent payment rails this year. I ran a fintech company. This space is regulated to the inch. A human needs to sign off on almost everything. The hardest industry to automate just handed AI the keys. And nobody's answering the only question that matters. When the agent gets it wrong, who pays?

@rossiadam This lockup reads like a controlled distribution machine. If $SPCX rips, more supply gets unlocked into the strength. If it stalls, retail sits with the bag and insiders wait. I’d rather buy the chaos after the first unlock than chase the IPO candle. Thoughts?

The lockup for SpaceX shares is like nothing I have ever seen. Three groups with different lockup regimes. The largest group has 180 day lockup after IPO, but with a graduated ability to sell based on share price at milestones before then.

I think the gap is simple. Amazon is valued on current cash flows. SpaceX is being valued like it owns the next operating system for orbit. That can still be true and still be a horrible IPO entry. I’d rather hunt the mispriced suppliers than chase $SPCX after the institutions already feasted.

One of these is not like the other: SpaceX IPO: $2T Valuation Amazon: $2.8T Valuation SpaceX revenue: $18.7B Amazon revenue: $742B Explain this gap.

@InTheAssembly I’d rather miss $SPCX than be exit liquidity for the cleanest story on earth. SpaceX is an incredible company, but IPOs this obvious usually come priced like everyone already won. I’m watching the suppliers instead. The boring plumbing is where retail might still get paid.

SpaceX is about to be the largest IPO in human history. But here’s the catch… It’s also going to be the trade most retail investors REGRET for the next 5 years. Here’s why, and the 4 space stocks I’m actually paying attention to instead: On June 12, SpaceX will list on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX. The expected valuation is around $1.75 trillion. That’s more than twice the previous record IPO, and more than the GDP of all but a handful of countries on earth. But even if SpaceX doubles from there, your return is 100%. In the same window, a small cap space stock with the right setup can do 5x or 10x. The math simply does not work for retail investors hoping for asymmetric returns from a trillion dollar IPO. You are buying a fully priced, fully discovered, fully institutional name on day one. The real money in space is not SpaceX. It’s in the smaller, less-followed public names that will get revalued the moment SpaceX trades. Here are the 4 I am watching: VELO Velo3D 3D prints metal parts inside SpaceX's Raptor engines. SpaceX backed them early and was their first customer. The cleanest direct supplier name on the public market. RDW Redwire Space The picks and shovels of space infrastructure. Solar arrays, deployable structures, microgravity manufacturing. The stuff every satellite and spacecraft needs. BKSY BlackSky Real-time earth observation satellites with major defense and intelligence customer base. Sub-billion-dollar market cap with a Pentagon backlog. GHM Graham Corporation Rocket turbopumps through its Barber-Nichols subsidiary. Already supplies multiple US launch players. Nobody is pricing the space exposure inside this name. Most of these sit between $1 billion and $4 billion market cap. Meaning even if they 5x to 10x from here, they would still be relatively small businesses. That’s the power of an asymmetric bet. Either it goes to zero, or it does 5x to 10x over the next few years. At The Assembly, we are a team of 8 with one goal: help you find the right stocks early. Turn notifications on so you don’t miss our alerts. This is EXTREMELY important. If you are not following us yet, you will understand later why that was a mistake.

@kevinxu So instead of selling to buy a house, they take a securities-backed line of credit?

had lunch with stanford friends and the story was the same all millionaires thanks to huge gains in tech stocks but no one wants to sell because of 37.1% tax hit so they still can't afford a single family home this is way more common than people realize

Lindsey talks like America is the junior partner in its own foreign policy. Every time the choice is restraint or another blank check for Israel, he somehow finds a way to make US taxpayers, US troops, and US credibility the collateral. At some point “ally” turned into “boss.” Pitiful

If a deal is struck to end the Iranian conflict because it is believed that the Strait of Hormuz cannot be protected from Iranian terrorism and Iran still possesses the capability to destroy major Gulf oil infrastructure, then Iran will be perceived as being a dominate force requiring a diplomatic solution. This combination of Iran being perceived as having the ability to terrorize the Strait in perpetuity and the ability the inflict massive damage to Gulf oil infrastructure is a major shift of the balance of power in the region and over time will be a nightmare for Israel. Also, it makes one wonder why the war started to begin with if these perceptions are accurate. I personally am a skeptic of the idea that Iran cannot be denied the ability to terrorize the Strait and the region cannot protect itself against Iranian military capability. It is important we get this right.

This is the kind of movement people overread and underread at the same time. Unplanned return + NSC principals moving fast usually means decision window, not necessarily action window. The quiet tell is the Arab leader call. If that is real, they’re not just reacting to Iran, they’re managing the regional blast radius before the next step.

🚨 BREAKING: Vice President JD Vance has made an UNPLANNED RETURN to Washington, DC, and his motorcade is racing to the White House President Trump has summoned his whole national security team to a meeting on Iran. POTUS is also scheduled to hold a conference call at 1pm ET with the leaders of several Arab nations.

The wild part is $META can afford the workers. This was not a survival layoff. It was a capital allocation decision. When $145B is going into AI capex, 8,000 jobs becomes a signal about what Meta thinks the next unit of productivity is. I broke that math down here: x.com/ViewDAOMedia/s…

oh $META just laid off 8,000 workers onto the pasta factory with 90 of ya’ll

Meta’s edge is not just compute and talent, it is the willingness to spend through the pain. That 8,000 layoff number looks huge until you compare it to the AI capex bill. At roughly $145B, the message is pretty clear. People are no longer the scarce input at Meta. Compute is. I wrote about that here, would appreciate your guys thoughts: x.com/ViewDAOMedia/s…

Many believe $META is lagging in the AI race, but according to head of AI Alex Wang, there are 3 things that set them apart: 1. Massive compute 2. Talent density 3. Ambitious research bets It was these factors that allowed $META to put out a competitive model (Muse Spark) so quickly after Wang took over. If they were able to achieve that much in so little time, it's likely they will be far more competitive a year from now as they continue to become more efficient as a team.

The 8,000 number is actually the floor. $META also froze 6,000 open roles in the same move — positions that were budgeted, headhunted, and ready to fill. Total headcount removed from the org chart in one move: 14,000. That's closer to 16% of the workforce, not the 10% every headline is running with.

Every $META post today leads with the same number: 8,000. I ran the math. The number that actually matters is 60. At $300K average all-in compensation, which is probably conservative for Meta, 8,000 jobs saves $2.4 billion annually. $META's 2026 AI capex is $145 billion. The ratio is 60:1. I'd call the layoffs a declaration. Revenue hit $56 billion last quarter, up 33% year over year. The company can afford the headcount. In 2024, Zuckerberg told Joe Rogan that AI would replace mid-level engineers by 2025. At the time, most people figured he was talking about other companies. He was describing Meta. Every mid-level engineer in tech just watched this play out in real time. I don't think Zuckerberg's timeline is someone else's problem anymore.

$900B on a $50B run-rate means investors are not paying for chatbot revenue anymore. They are underwriting Anthropic as future enterprise infrastructure, almost like an AI cloud layer sitting between workers, code, docs, workflows, and every SaaS seat. That is a wild multiple until you realize the bet is replacing the software bundle itself.

BREAKING: Anthropic is set to close its latest funding round, which may top $30 billion, at a valuation above $900 billion, per Bloomberg. Details include: 1. This would make Anthropic more valuable than OpenAI and the most valuable private company in the world 2. Sequoia, Dragoneer, Altimeter, and Greenoaks Capital are expected to co-lead the financing round, at $2 billion each 3. Anthropic has told investors that its annualized run rate revenue will surpass $50 billion by the end of next month 4. The funding round is expected to close by as soon as next week We truly are in unprecedented times right now.

@ChatGPTapp paperwork by voice is useful, but the product tension is funny. people want the new agentic workflows, but they also want 4o back because the old magic felt faster, warmer, and less over-managed. Including me, bring back 4o🥺

Paperwork is better when you can just talk through it. With Images in ChatGPT and voice mode, you can upload a form, say what to fill in, and get back a completed version.

the graveyard here is not “form filler startups” it’s every wrapper that confused workflow friction for a moat. paperwork was only valuable because the interface was painful. once voice + vision can understand the form, the business has to own distribution, compliance, or the system of record

many startups just died today