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@Woah_Vickyy MFs get to the bear market and start doing anything but getting a job
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Been 10x longing $PUMP for roughly 3-5 hours and making around 30-50% returns. Pretty simple strategy and has worked for me 7/7 times Iโve done it (some examples & PnLs attached).
1. Buy in dead volume hours (6-11am CT)
2. Wait for high volume hours to close (usually 3-5pm CT)
Reasoning:
-I read that roughly 90-95% of revenue is currently being used for buybacks.
-Buybacks makes ~2-10% moves possible for just about any day. I usually only enter when macro headlines seem decent, but $PUMP doesnโt necessarily trade accordingly. Boosts my odds of success though๐คทโโ๏ธ
- With 10x lev and some size (Iโm using 5k margin each time), buying into the sell offs and selling once a mini-pump occurs is v profitable.
Caveats:
- Entry is everything.
- I donโt treat PA as โcharts and levels.โ I know nothing about chart ranges and stuff, but instead focus on the factors moving them.
- Only works with longing. Buybacks push price up.
- On days when I see no volume onchain, I donโt enter. Iโm not good at shorting and will not play it.
- not necessarily aiming for โselling the topโ so much as aiming to sell when volume seems topped for a day.
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@Woah_Vickyy I like how youโre approaching it mechanically instead of trying to force TA on something that doesnโt really trade like a normal chart. Entry discipline + respecting volume seems like the real edge here.
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For once I'm gonna try to tweet something somewhat useful and then I'll go back to my usual bs.
Please do with this information what you will, and I would love to hear counterarguments, as my opinions are just my own opinions and nothing more. Unlike much of CT, I am not looking at charts, but rather macro-factors & stats, then formulating some opinions.
This was written on November 13, 2025, and the trend has played out, so it seems relevant. I placed a small long as of November 17, 2025, betting on Nvidia earnings being good, and shaping short-term upside for the markets, but honestly idk if this is a good idea lol.
Macro factors Iโm considering:
Rates & inflation - CPI ~3.0% as of September 2025 Fed started cutting, but weโre still 3.75 โ 4.00%, way above โgreat conditions.โ
Thoughts: Policy is less restrictive than peak 2023โ24, seems to be moving right direction, but definitely not โfree moneyโ again. Equities & AI Stock markets are not exactly screaming fear & actually seem to be doing fine even though lots of people are calling for tech / AI bubble.
S&P up ~37%+ from April 2025 low, AI leaders like Nvidia are still trading at ~53โ57x P/E on trailing earnings. Pretty high and exactly the โAI bubbleโ type of narrative though.
So basically, we have still-elevated rates, inflation not fully tamed, international policies that are shakily leading to trade restrictions, and yet a super AI-driven risk-on equity market with stretched tech valuations.
This leads to my thoughts on crypto because it competes with (and is often correlated with) high-beta tech risk.
Crypto market rn:
MC: ~3.4 trillion right now. Bitcoin ~100k, down ~25% from its October 2025 peak BTCd ~60%
But this points (in my eyes) to concentration & โdryness,โ which Iโve been kinda feeling since late summer. Like a โdry / fearful / no new winnersโ feeling:
Crypto projects with market cap > $100M has fallen DRASTICALLY from 477 in Nov 2021 to 388 now, even though total market cap is similar or higher.
Basically, more value is sitting in fewer names. Thatโs exactly what โliquidity is concentrated and there arenโt obvious new breakout projectsโ feels like.
DeFi & stablecoins DeFi TVL estimated around $130โ220B(?) Itโs up more than 40% vs. last year, but down month-on-month as liquidity recently pulled back.
Stablecoin market has crossed ~$300B in market cap, average daily transaction volumes around $3.1T, and seems to be growing?
Maybe this is the sector that really does pick up traction rather than like a lot of these projects. Kinda ties in with what crypto (Bitcoin) was originally made for; transactions and stuff. Imo this brings up a different issue with like the core of philosophy behind crypto but that might be less relevant.
Institutional footprint is arguably the newest thing this cycle. US Spot Bitcoin ETFs ~7.3% of supply. Big structural difference vs. last cycle. Wall Street is now a major player / marginal buyer & seller.
Ok now some of the data out of the way, hereโs what Iโm thinking:
1. Fundamentally, not much has changed in day-to-day use in these last couple of years. Yes, adoption is up overall, with now roughly 10% global crypto adoption, but peopleโs daily lives really donโt depend on crypto rails. The biggest โrealโ usage is stablecoins for payments, savings, and cross-border transfers, plus speculative trading, DeFi yields, and gaming.
Name me one time anyone has played a DeFi game.
Name me one real use-case thatโs not niche where youโd WILLINGLY pay in crypto (not stablecoins) over cash.
It all feels like progress, but not yet the type of โthis obviously changed the worldโ usage that would clearly justify a permanent step-change higher in valuations.
2. So then why tf should Bitcoin be up here? If BTC is ~100k+ after a spike to 120k+ this year, the mechanical reasons imo are massive ETF demand, โdigital goldโ narrative is alive (โmacro hedge,โ which is just simply not true in reality), especially with U.S. inflation still around 3% and long-term fiscal concerns.
But from a tech perspective, is it not fair to say that โBTC the asset is higher, but the product is literally no more useful than it was at the bottom?โ
BTC is primarily used as a speculative or store-of-value asset, not as their default payment backbone. So at this modern stage, it even begins making me beg the question of why institutions are getting involved in the first place (is it not just to dump eventually? Like theyโre not actually using it and not even โbelievingโ in the tech per se).
3. Crypto no longer feels like the frontier tech trade. As someone in Chicago I may not see the full picture but from what I do see, the true โfrontier techโ narrative is still AI and that isn't changing. The whole stock market is driven by these AI names. Crypto, in contrast, almost feels like the less shiny new tech story.
The spaces I'm connected with online almost exclusively talk about crypto, so it sometimes seems to me that adoption is more widespread than it actually is.
However, being in the Midwest, I can say right now nobody beyond a niche group cares for crypto. They ALL know about it but just donโt want to get involved, and it currently does not have the infrastructure necessary to justify a change in this sentiment.
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Only on CT will people who made all their money through memecoins explain where we are in the cycle by drawing a couple lines and saying:
โAbove here bullish, below here bearish.โ
Thanks for saying in a roundabout way that price goes up if it goes up and down if it goes down
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nobody's prepared for the october recap
nickbruhman@nickbruhman
With August ending, I single-handedly crossed ~$1B ($1,000,000,000) in annual net new card spend onboarded. A year ago, I wouldn't have thought this was possible by solely helping people upgrade their banking experience. Here's how I did it: ๐งต
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@littleboomstick Iโll sell u some, also did cheffy actually go to jail
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cryptofish nfts are like bitcoin except instead of 21 million of them there's only 2200 of them and they look cool as fuck
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