Deep Value

Trump is claiming the stock market has held up well despite the US-Iran war. He's not wrong that the damage has been contained so far. The S&P 500 has avoided a full breakdown even as the Hormuz situation escalated, oil spiked, and geopolitical uncertainty hit levels not seen in years. The comment reads partly as self-assurance and partly as a signal that Trump sees market stability as validation of his approach. Whether that holds depends entirely on what happens next with the blockade threat and Iran's response.

Wells Fargo's chief equity strategist sees the S&P 500 hitting 7,300 by July, calling it an economic "sugar high." The S&P just turned positive on the year and is sitting near all-time highs again, so this call is landing at a moment when momentum is already building. Wells Fargo says four factors are converging to push stocks higher in the near term, even if the longer-term picture stays murky. No price target upgrade matters much without context though. This is a short-term call, not a forever view. If they're right,

$JNJ tops Q1 profit estimates as its cancer and immunology portfolio picks up the slack from Stelara's collapse. Darzalex and Tremfya are carrying the weight now. Stelara has been bleeding share to biosimilar competition for months, and this is the first real proof that the transition is holding up better than feared.

$BLK quarterly profit is rising as active ETFs and performance fees drive the growth. Assets under management hit $13.89 trillion, up from $11.58 trillion a year ago. That is a $2.3 trillion jump in AUM in twelve months, and it shows the scale of the shift happening right now toward active strategies inside the ETF wrapper. BlackRock is not just benefiting from passive flows anymore.

The IMF now says the UK is the most exposed developed economy to the Iran war, projecting the biggest growth hit among rich nations. The UK's vulnerability comes down to a few things: heavy reliance on energy imports, close trade ties with countries directly in the line of fire, and an economy that was already limping before this conflict escalated. A prolonged war and any sustained disruption to oil supply routes puts serious pressure on British households and businesses that were already dealing with sticky inflation and weak consumer demand. The pound and UK gilts will be worth watching as this gets priced in.

The S&P 500 is pushing higher this morning, extending yesterday's recovery that fully erased the losses tied to the Iran conflict. Wall Street has now done something remarkable. In the span of just a few sessions, the market absorbed a Middle East war, an oil spike, and serious questions about global supply chains, and came out the other side flat or better. The index is sitting just 1% from all-time highs after what was supposed to be a destabilizing geopolitical shock. The resilience here is the story. Bears have had every excuse to push this market lower and it keeps snapping back.

Kering Q1 results are out and the luxury picture is mixed at best. Gucci is still bleeding in China but showing some signs of life, and the US is actually a bright spot with accelerating performance in Q1. Balenciaga managed to post a quarter of growth. The bigger theme here is that local shoppers in key markets are holding up better than tourists, which is a real signal about where luxury demand is actually coming from right now. Kering trades in Paris under KER. No US cashtag applies.

US forces have seized Iran-linked ships and are now moving them to a holding area in the Arabian Sea or Indian Ocean, per the WSJ. This is an active escalation in the naval dimension of the conflict. Seizing and relocating vessels suggests the blockade operation is expanding beyond the Strait of Hormuz into open water, giving the US a much wider enforcement perimeter.

BREAKING: $AMZN is acquiring Globalstar in an $11.6 billion deal, giving its Project Kuiper satellite internet business a major hardware and spectrum boost. This is a direct shot at SpaceX's Starlink. Kuiper has been playing catch-up and Globalstar brings existing satellite infrastructure and licensed spectrum that would take years to build from scratch. The race for low-earth orbit dominance just got a lot more serious.

Bessent is softening his stance on Fed rate cuts, saying he backs reductions but understands if Powell wants to hold off for now. This is a shift in tone from Bessent, who as recently as this week called rate cuts "the only ingredient missing" for stronger growth. With Hassett already pushing back on the Fed from the other side, the White House is sending mixed signals on monetary policy at a sensitive moment for markets.

White House confirms more US-Iran peace deal talks are actively being discussed, even as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a near standstill. That disconnect is the real story. Trump tied the ceasefire to the strait reopening, but ships still aren't moving freely. Whether these talks produce anything concrete or just more headlines is the question the oil market is pricing in right now.

Eurogroup Chair Pierrakakis says the economic damage to Europe from the Strait of Hormuz closure will depend entirely on how long it lasts. That framing matters because Europe imports a significant share of its energy through that corridor. A short disruption is manageable. A prolonged closure is a different story for the eurozone economy, which is already dealing with soft growth and sticky inflation heading into this.

France nudging its 2026 inflation forecast up to 1.9% as the rest of Europe is dealing with oil shock fears and a volatile macro backdrop. Not a dramatic number on its own, but it signals French policymakers are not expecting inflation to fully cool even a year from now. That keeps pressure on the ECB to stay cautious about how fast it moves on further rate cuts.

Trump now putting a timeline on it, telling the NY Post that Iran talks could happen within the next two days, with Pakistan as the likely venue. This moves the story forward. The last tweet flagged Pakistan as the leading location, but Trump attaching a 48 hour window is new. Oil is watching this closely given where WTI has been trading today.

Trump says the US is leaning toward Pakistan as the venue for Iran nuclear talks, per the NY Post. This is a notable shift in the diplomatic backdrop. Pakistan has longstanding ties with both Washington and Tehran, making it a more neutral setting than previous options that had been floated. Whether Iran agrees to show up is a separate question entirely, given Tehran's statement just this morning that no deal is in place.

$ORCL is bouncing for a second straight session and Bloom Energy is surging more than 20% after the two companies expanded a capacity deal tied to AI data center power demand. Bloom Energy makes fuel cells that can power data centers without relying on the grid, which is exactly what hyperscalers and cloud providers are scrambling for right now. The deal signals that the AI infrastructure buildout is pulling in a much wider range of energy suppliers than just traditional utilities.

The S&P 500 has turned positive on the year and is now sitting just 1% away from an all-time high. $5.5 trillion in market cap has been added since March 30th. Ten straight trading days of gains averaging $550 billion per day. Whatever the bears were saying a month ago, the market did not listen.

Ken Griffin says Trump misread the Iran situation, drawing a false parallel to Venezuela. The Venezuela pressure campaign worked fast and with minimal friction. Griffin's argument is that the administration assumed the same playbook would translate to Tehran, and that assumption led to a miscalculation on how far and how fast this conflict would escalate.

Iran publicly says there is still no deal with the US, throwing cold water on any hopes of a near-term diplomatic resolution. This comes as oil markets are already under pressure and global financial institutions are flagging instability risks. A prolonged standoff keeps the Strait of Hormuz situation unresolved and gives energy traders little reason to pull back from the geopolitical risk premium baked into crude right now.

Treasury Secretary Bessent just confirmed the White House wants Kevin Warsh in the Fed chair seat, and they want it done fast. Warsh is seen as more hawkish than Powell but also more aligned with political pressure to cut rates when needed. Getting him confirmed would give the administration far more influence over monetary policy heading into 2026. The housing bill mention is notable too. Bessent pairing it with the Fed chair push suggests the administration is trying to move on multiple economic fronts simultaneously, using the current legislative window while they have momentum.

Trump going after the UK on Truth Social, calling it "tragic" that Britain won't open North Sea Oil development. He's pointing at Norway selling North Sea oil back to the UK at a premium as the punchline. With Europe in the middle of an energy crunch and this conflict driving oil higher, Trump is essentially arguing the UK is leaving one of the world's great oil fields sitting idle while paying top dollar for imports.