Cetera Investment Management

Energy is the best performing sector this year, with a 33% gain. Unfortunately the S&P 500 is low energy. At just 3.8% of the index, energy is having a minimal impact on broader market performance. Energy peaked at 16% of the index when oil peaked in 2008.

Spring is officially here, and the bears have emerged from hibernation. The AAII Net-Bullish sentiment indicator fell to a 27-week low, with survey participants indicating bearishness at the highest since last May. Sentiment tends to follow stock prices.

The S&P 500 closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time in 214 trading days. Following similar 200+ day streaks since 1990, the S&P 500 has been higher one year later in 12 of 14 instances, with an average total return of 12%.

Behind every strong portfolio is rigorous manager research. At Cetera, this process is led by Hristo Stefanov, our Director of Research, who ensures every investment manager is evaluated, selected, and monitored through a disciplined approach. Stay tuned for an inside look at the team driving these decisions.

Retail gas prices have climbed to their highest level since September 2022. The national daily average is up 30% this month to $3.88 per gallon. Higher fuel costs are taking up a larger share of consumer wallets and could weigh on discretionary spending.

Initial jobless claims fell by 8K last week to 205K, below expectations of 215K. For context, the weekly avg over the past 3 years is 224K. While hiring activity is softening, layoffs remain at low levels. We're still in a "low hire, low fire" environment.

The Fed's March FOMC meeting concluded with rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. The updated dot plot continues to project one rate cut this year, though Fed officials raised their 2026 PCE inflation projection from 2.4% to 2.7%.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 0.7% in February, exceeding expectations of +0.3%. It was the fourth straight month of accelerating PPI inflation. Higher input costs may weigh on consumer prices in the months ahead.

The people behind our portfolios matter—but so does the process. Asset allocation is a core component of portfolio construction. The Cetera Freedom Models are built using a disciplined asset allocation process that blends quantitative analysis with investment oversight and ongoing monitoring. This framework helps guide how our models are constructed and maintained across varying market conditions. View our process document to learn more about our asset allocation approach and the framework behind our models: bit.ly/4btnibg

According to legend, a pot of gold holds 1,000 gold coins. Leprechauns have a lot to celebrate this #StPatricksDay because a pot of gold is worth $5 million at current prices, 66% more than a year ago. That’s a lot of Lucky Charms.

The Fed’s FOMC meeting concludes tomorrow, with markets assigning less than a 1% probability of a rate cut. Looking ahead, the implied fed funds rate for December is 3.41%, suggesting expectations for one rate cut by year-end.

Markets are becoming more selective. In our March Sector Insights, we examine sector rotation, valuations, and momentum—and what they may signal for investors. Read the full report: bit.ly/4sRzBp5

On @SchwabNetwork, our CIO @GeneGoldman sat down with Nicole Petallides (@NPetallides) to discuss his assessment of the market entering week three of the War with Iran. Watch the full segment here: x.com/schwabnetwork/…

Oil prices remain near $100 per barrel and could move higher, but current levels are still well below past spikes when adjusted for inflation. In today’s dollars, oil peaked around $218 per barrel in 2008, more than double today’s price.

Markets are navigating heightened geopolitical risk—but this week’s Fed meeting could be an important source of stability. With interest rates expected to remain unchanged, inflation still above target, and markets closely watching Chair Powell’s tone, policy signals matter more than ever. On this week’s #TheWeekAhead, CIO @GeneGoldman breaks down what to expect from the Fed, how the Dot Plot may evolve, and why the meeting could help support markets amid ongoing volatility. #weekahead" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">cetera.com/research-and-i…

Despite elevated volatility, the S&P 500 is just 5% below its 52-week high. Energy, Utilities, and Real Estate remain closest to their highs, while Consumer Discretionary (-12.1%), Tech (-12.6%) and Financials (-13.6%) have the largest sector drawdowns.

Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed since the onset of the Iran conflict, falling from more than 60 crossings per week to a standstill. How quickly and at what capacity flows resume will determine the path of oil prices from here.

Less than 20% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 20-day moving average for the first time since the post-Liberation Day selloff last April. This signals deterioration in near-term market breadth and weakening momentum.

US personal spending rose 0.4% in January, matching income growth and exceeding expectations of +0.3%. Spending gains were driven by a 0.7% rise in services consumption, while goods spending fell 0.4%. Overall, consumer spending is up 5.3% Y/Y.

Treasury yields are rising across the curve as markets price in higher inflation and lower rate cut odds. Yields began moving higher at the onset of the Iran conflict and could remain under pressure if Middle East tensions continue to escalate.