Clarence Leung

@TKLSubscribers I agree with the long term trend, but you don’t think this is a “buy the rumor, sell the news” scenario with the rate cut next week?

@DiveBomb321 I think it’s hard to say whether or not AIFS-EN is more accurate than EPS just yet. It only launched earlier in 2025 and there’s not that much data to backtest it with right now. There are some known situations where it’s better and others where it’s not.

#natgas #dbnatgaswx I got the question: why are there 3 or more 14/15 day weather models and which one is more accurate. The short answer is that no one model is always 100% correct. That said the ECMWF Ensemble has historically been more accurate and the newer ECMWF AI model is showing even better results. The order of model accuracy is typically considered as follows but may not always be exactly this order: -ECMWF AI Ensemble Aka AIFS-EN Aka Euro bot -ECMWF Ensemble Aka EPS aka Euro -GFS Ensemble Aka GEFS -Then the non ensembles of the three above in the same order which I don't typically talk about but you could argue are more accurate on day 1 to 5 and random beyond that. There are also some other short range models and them you also have the extended range models which have played a role more so this winter. The reality is that interpreting the results of these models and correlating them with price isn't always straight forward as you have other factors at play and the model change can already be priced in.

@bluegoldr Honestly this is a good week to determine if standard EC is better or EC AI sees things that standard EC doesn’t during winter weather.

SUNDAY #NATGAS FUNDAMENTALS • Sunday’s 12z weather models are mixed vs Friday’s 12z results. • GFS is slightly bearish(-5 bcf). • ECMWF is bullish (+20 bcf). • In absolute terms: Over the next 16 days (inc. today), GFS projects consumption to average 103.7 bcf/d (substantially above the norm). Over the next 15 days (inc. today), ECMWF projects consumption to average 107.0 bcf/d (substantially above the norm). • Dry gas production is currently estimated at 110.6 bcf/d (-0.7 bcf/d from Friday). • Dry gas production reached a new all-time high on Friday (111.3 bcf/d). • LNG feedgas flows are currently estimated at 19.1 bcf/d (unchanged from Friday). • The net impact on my near-term storage level outlook is bullish. Therefore, my storage level outlook will be revised lower. • On Wednesday, HH spot VWAP was $4.590 per MMBtu. Thursday’s and Friday’s spot data is not available due to Thanksgiving holiday. • NYMEX natural gas is fundamentally positioned to open higher (gap up) on GLOBEX. However, the potential for a large jump is limited due to: • Conflicting short-term weather forecasts. • Significant bullish sentiment already priced in by Friday's rally. • The projected decline in heating demand (TDDs) beginning around December 8th.

@kogasman I think there’s a bunch of people combining numbers together, and then there’s some people that don’t know how the numbers work giving everyone wrong information.

#natgas 12z gefs +5 Euro -4 Euro AI -1 Where’s everyone getting all the dif numbers from? 😭 This is throwing me off.

@MassachusettsWx I’m curious to learn more about the biases that AIFS-ENS might have. Is there any explanation about why it might do that?

AIFS-ENS has trended quite a bit warmer SE of 495, but that is being very poorly reflected by the snow mean showing 8" in Boston when 850s are 1C. This is a known bias with AIFS-ENS and ECMWF warns against using snowfall maps in marginal situations like Tuesday's storm.

@kavern23 +1. Social media algos feed off of having a really strong one sided opinion though.

#natgas It eventually becomes risk to long side as price gets closer to 5.Power generation are low 30 BCF range most days and it is not. Without any freeze off of wells, it is still hard to make the whole winter on bullish side just on heating demand unless power gets way better

#natgas I find xtwitter has way too many people "hyper" bullish or bearish, both sides. Reality is it not a slam dunk bullish or bearish side over rest of winter. I think it is good to be in middle side of "hyperness" for both camps. Still some serious bearish anchors.

@manju_n30 Is this based on 11/29 12z data?

#natgas ECMWF

@TKLSubscribers I think you’re probably right on the stop but this one’s a bit too much of a weather lottery ticket (even more than usual for $NATGAS) for me.

@TKLSubscribers All good, longs ready for TACO Tuesday.

@TKLSubscribers I think your initial assessment of $NATGAS is generally pretty good but I think the target is often too far out given how volatile it is with weather, geopolitics, and storage buildups. I’ve been taking profits a bit earlier with some success so it’s still been good tips.

@TKLSubscribers Awesome call right before the storage update.

@TKLSubscribers What’s Trump’s play here? Is he trying to bait Iran into closing the Strait of Hormuz so that the US has a legit reason to make a larger move? Still feels like a dangerous setup to me.

@GavinVerhey As a big FFXIII fan, I also wanted to give a shout out to the design of Stagger on Lightning, Army of One. Incredible design of a FF game mechanic adapted to MTG!

It's been a while since I've written anything like this: an old-school Gavin article that interweaves Magic and my life. From when I was a kid to today, let me tell you about what inspired pieces of #MTGxFINALFANTASY design! Link in the replies. #wotcstaff

@ferrv95 @TKLSubscribers It’s WWDC (Apple’s product launch announcement event) today and there’s no major AI-related new features announced just yet.

@TKLSubscribers Why is APPL tanking with the market up? Any unexpected news?

@TKLSubscribers Big OPEC headlines to watch for folks on WTI Crude right now. x.com/deitaone/statu…

@bornspectator42 @RuxandraTeslo Actually a good pitch deck: bestpitchdeck.com/theranos

@RuxandraTeslo Believe it or not the Theranos original deck is out there if you look for it. And I think it's actually a good one too.

Can someone send me a non confidential deck for a biotech start-up that got funded? Can't find one right now and I want to show someone.

@TKLSubscribers Looks like it’s not trade-related: x.com/qqsource/statu…

@KobeissiLetter So even better, it’s a meeting to plan for the meeting to plan for the meeting.

BREAKING: China's Vice Premier He Lifeng says both sides agreed to establish a "China-US trade consultation mechanism."

@KobeissiLetter This gives “meeting to plan for the next meeting” vibes.

BREAKING: US Trade Representative Greer says “we’re confident that the deal we struck with our Chinese partners will help us to work toward resolving [the trade deficit].” Details are said to be coming on Monday.

@arajamani when is the vibe coding party happening?

Amazing 🤯