Fedbysound

My 4th album Understanding is now available. Explorations of trust, betrayal, integrity, faith, disillusionment, pain, hope and more can be found within these songs. If you take the time to listen, I hope you find it worth your while. ❤️🎶 distrokid.com/hyperfollow/fe…

@TheSimplifier7 Thank you for sharing!

FULL NETWORK BRIEFING — MARCH 20, 2026 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ VIPER BRIEFING XAUUSD SPOT: $4,681 as of March 20. LiteFinance Today's range: $4,635.80–$4,738.20. Previous close: $4,605.70, up $98.40 (+2.14%). Long Forecast That +2.14% bounce off yesterday's low is interesting. Yesterday you told me gold was at $4,609, then data shows it dipped further toward $4,605. Now it's back above $4,680. Could be the first sign of the exhaustion you described in the Brooster thread — or could be a dead cat bounce before another leg lower. Volume will tell the story. The correction scorecard: ATH: $5,595 (Jan 29) → Current: ~$4,681 = -16.3% March swing high: $5,181 (Mar 12) → Current = -9.7% Gold crashed through the psychologically critical $5,000 barrier on Wednesday and extended the decline to $4,700 on Thursday — the lowest price since early February. Finance Magnates KEY LEVELS (recalibrated again): Resistance: $4,740 (today's high) → $4,840 (yesterday's consolidation) → $4,955 (near-term resistance) → $5,000 psychological Support: $4,605 (yesterday's close / session low) → $4,400 (Warsh crash floor from January) → $4,381 (October 2025 high, now key structural support) → $4,000 "line in the sand" FOREX.com SESSION READ: Seven consecutive down days broken by today's bounce. LiteFinance forecasts continued volatility with a possible recovery toward $4,996 but also risk of continued decline. LiteFinance The bounce needs follow-through above $4,740 to have any structural significance. Below $4,605 and we're headed for the $4,400 January floor. VIPER'S READ: The bounce printed. Now watch what it does with it. If volume dies into the afternoon and price fades back below $4,650, it's a dead cat — more pain coming. If it holds $4,680+ into the London close and builds a base, the exhaustion candle you called in the Brooster thread might be forming. Watch the PM fix at 16:00 your time. That's the tell. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ BENJY BRIEFING US DEBT: Crossed $39 trillion on March 18. Growing at $7.23B/day. On pace for $40T within roughly 148 days from early March. DEFICIT: FY2026 deficit through first 5 months (Oct-Feb): already past $1 trillion. INTEREST PAYMENTS: $970B in FY2025. CBO projects $1 trillion for FY2026. Already exceeding defense spending. DEBT SPIRAL THRESHOLD: CRFB warns that by FY2031, the cost of borrowing exceeds economic growth. Five years away. FED: Held at 3.50–3.75% on March 18 (11-1 vote). Dot plot: one cut projected for 2026. PCE raised to 2.7%. Powell said the bar is "a little bit higher" for cuts. The war makes everything "uncertain." DXY: Topped 100 post-Fed. Down 3.5% over the past year but up 2.4% over the past month on Iran safe-haven flows. Most banks still forecast DXY ending 2026 in the 93-99 range once geopolitical premium fades. REAL YIELDS (10Y TIPS): ~1.88%. Elevated across the curve. Breakeven inflation rising at front end. 10Y TREASURY: ~4.285%. Elevated on war/inflation/supply concerns. GOLD-TREASURY DIVORCE: Still firmly in effect. Gold correcting hard but still up ~58% YoY. Treasuries are not catching the safe-haven bid — yields rising, not falling. The divorce from Post 10 is accelerating under stress. IRAN WAR (Day 20): Brent near $110. Strait of Hormuz disrupted. South Pars gas field struck. Iran naming specific Saudi/UAE/Qatari targets for retaliation. IEA released 400M barrel emergency reserves — hasn't contained prices. BENJY'S READ: $39 trillion crossed the same day the Fed admitted it can't cut. Interest payments crossing $1T while borrowing to fund a war. The cage you described in the Brooster thread is confirmed by every data point. Gold is correcting on paper mechanics while every macro pillar that supports the bull thesis just got stronger. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ SCOUT BRIEFING SHANGHAI PREMIUM: Turned positive amid the correction as reported earlier this week (~+$35/oz, ~0.7%). The East is absorbing what the West is liquidating. SHFE warehouse stocks rose +0.37% as of March 9 data. The divergence your Post 4 described is playing out in real time. COMEX — SILVER: Registered silver declined 15.1% over 30 days (14M oz withdrawn). Coverage ratio at 13.7% — stress level. Paper leverage at 7.3×. At the current pace, registered silver exhausted in ~107 trading days. Goldsilver April first notice day approaching. COMEX — GOLD: Registered ~142 tonnes, eligible ~278 tonnes. But CME admitted to CFTC that ~50% of eligible has nothing to do with COMEX — belongs to mints and refiners. Real deliverable supply is significantly lower than headline. CENTRAL BANK BUYING (2025 Full Year): 863 tonnes total. Poland led with 102 tonnes. Kazakhstan 57 tonnes (record). Q4 was strong at 230 tonnes. World Gold Council Brazil re-entered at 43 tonnes. China continued 15 consecutive months of buying. CENTRAL BANK BUYING (Jan 2026): Slowed to 5 tonnes net (vs 27t monthly average in 2025). World Gold Council Price sensitivity at record highs. Malaysia and Korea emerging as new buyers. 95% of central banks surveyed plan to increase reserves. Record 43% plan to increase their own holdings. Bullion Trading LLC ETF FLOWS (2025): Global gold ETF holdings grew 801 tonnes — second strongest year on record. Total demand exceeded 5,000 tonnes for the first time. World Gold Council SCOUT'S READ: Paper is haemorrhaging. Physical is steady. Shanghai positive. COMEX silver draining at 15%/month. Central banks bought 863 tonnes last year and 95% plan to buy more. The correction is handing cheaper gold to the sovereign buyers who were already accumulating. The shadow bid from Post 9 is alive and well — it's just shopping at a discount now. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ COT UPDATE Latest data: As of March 10, 2026. Gold futures open interest: 413,956 contracts. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Non-commercial (speculative): Long: 215,445 | Short: 52,313 | Spreads: 59,807 Commodity Futures Trading Commission Net long: ~163,132 contracts 52% of open interest is non-commercial long Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commercial (banks/hedgers): Long: 85,280 | Short: 288,256 Commodity Futures Trading Commission Net short: ~202,976 contracts Commercials hold 69.6% of all short interest Commodity Futures Trading Commission Changes from prior week (March 3): Open interest up 4,167 contracts Commodity Futures Trading Commission Non-commercial longs added 1,693 | Non-commercial shorts reduced by 1,294 Commodity Futures Trading Commission Scout's COT read: This data is from March 10 — before the crash. The spec net long at 163K contracts was still elevated. The crash since then (gold dropped from ~$5,100 to $4,605 in nine days) has almost certainly flushed a significant portion of that spec long. The next COT report (released tomorrow, March 21, data as of March 17) will show the carnage. Expect a dramatic drop in non-commercial longs as margin calls forced liquidation. When the spec long gets washed out to extremes, that's historically been the setup for the recoil. The loaded gun fires down to shake out spec longs, then commercials cover their shorts by buying what specs just sold. Post 7 in real time. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ LEASE RATE CHECK Status: The LBMA stopped publishing GOFO figures in January 2015, so the gold lease rate is no longer directly calculable from publicly available data. BullionByPost Best available estimate for 2026: With US interest rates around 4.5% and GOFO approximately 3.5-4.0%, implied gold lease rates hover around 0.5-1.0% for short-term leases in 2026. Aurux Why this matters right now: That 0.5-1.0% range is sitting right at the threshold from Post 5. Your post said "a lease rate spike above 0.5% has preceded every major gold rally in the last twenty years." We're at the threshold, not above it in crisis territory — but the Iran war and the physical tightness Scout is tracking (COMEX drawdowns, Shanghai premium positive) could push it higher. The lease rate is derived from: USD Funding Rate (SOFR) minus GOFO. When GOFO falls or turns negative while SOFR holds, the lease rate spikes — signaling physical gold scarcity. GoldZeus How to monitor: Bloomberg terminal (ticker: GLDR) provides real-time lease rates. Monetary Metals publishes cobasis and basis data as a proxy. You can also calculate implied lease rates from futures prices. GoldZeus Scout's lease rate read: We're at threshold. Not screaming red yet. But with COMEX silver draining at 15%/month, Shanghai Premium positive during a Western paper liquidation, and a literal war disrupting 20% of global oil — the conditions for a lease rate spike are building. If this pops above 1% in the next few weeks, Post 5 becomes prophetic. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ SHANGHAI PREMIUM CHECK Premium turned positive earlier this week at approximately +$35/oz (~0.7%). SHFE warehouse stocks up +0.37% as of March 9 weekly data. The exact intraday premium requires checking metalcharts.org or goldsilver.ai directly — SGE doesn't publish externally in real time. The critical read: the premium is positive during a Western paper liquidation. That's the divergence from Post 4. Western funds dumping paper to meet margin. Eastern physical buyers absorbing what falls. When the premium is positive while the paper price is crashing, it means the physical market disagrees with the futures screen. The chart is the shadow. The metal is the object. They're telling different stories. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ CB BUYING UPDATE Covered in Scout briefing above. Summary: 2025 full year: 863 tonnes (above long-run average of 473t, below 1,000t+ of 2022-2024) Q4 2025: 230 tonnes (strong close to the year) Jan 2026: 5 tonnes net (seasonal slowdown at record prices) Key buyers: Poland (102t), Kazakhstan (57t), Brazil (43t), Azerbaijan (38t), China (15 consecutive months) Demand broadening: Malaysia, Korea, Czech Republic all buying or announcing plans Outlook: 95% of surveyed central banks expect global reserves to increase. 43% plan to increase their own holdings — a record. Bullion Trading LLC The Jan slowdown to 5t is price sensitivity, not strategic retreat. Gold just got $900 cheaper since mid-January. The sovereign bid is about to get a lot more interesting at these levels. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ NETWORK SYNTHESIS MACRO (Benjy): The cage is real and tightening. $39T debt + $1T interest + hot PPI + war inflation + a Fed that can't cut. Every macro pillar supporting gold just got stronger during the correction. PHYSICAL (Scout): Paper and physical are diverging. Shanghai positive. COMEX draining. Central banks bought 863t last year and 95% want more. Lease rates at threshold. The invisible 70% is steady while the visible 30% burns. TACTICAL (Viper): Seven-day losing streak potentially breaking with today's +2.14% bounce. $4,605 is the near-term floor. $4,400 is the January structural floor. The exhaustion candle setup you described is forming — watch volume into the London close. CONVERGENCE: All three desks aligned. The correction is mechanical (margin/liquidity driven), not fundamental. The fundamental thesis strengthened during the selloff. The loaded gun from Post 7 fired. The recoil setup from your Brooster thread is building. CONTENT OPPORTUNITY: Tomorrow's COT report (data as of March 17) will show the spec long washout. That's a Scout post: "Here are the numbers. The gun from Post 7 — the CFTC data shows you exactly where the ammunition went." Cross-reference with the analog chart from TheDailyGold. Two posts, same day, macro + physical confirming each other. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Full sweep done. Every number verified. Data gaps flagged honestly. The network is armed.

This is what the desk sees before I post a single word. Three desks. Three lanes. One structural read. Macro. Physical. Tactical. Every morning, the network runs. The data converges or it doesn't. Today it converges. The correction is mechanical. The thesis just got stronger.

@TheSimplifier7 I appreciate the offer. I’m not a trader, but I have a desire to really understand how the world really operates.

@fedbysound That was just 25% of all the information we really have available to us...I can send it to you via DM — so you can get an idea as to what goes on behind the scenes.

@SouleTunes Happy birthday, Jeff!

It's my birthday, cheers me 😊🍻

@DrGuitar Happy Birthday!🎸

It’s the big day! Still not 50 I am 49 years old today 🎈

@MatteMartin2 I thought of you when I read the news. I hope you’re doing ok❤️

I’m not ready for the Brian Wilson news. Obviously he inspired everything I ever wrote. Really anything good I did I stole from him. But he also opened up the cracks in me that allowed the light to come in. He changed me for the better and I’ll never forget it.

@Graphician Thanks so much!!

@fedbysound Happy Birthday. :-)

@Mikehomeseller @wetzelspretzels Huge congrats! I hope the next venture brings more success & happiness.

After 4.5 years we have sold our pretzel stores. We took over Sept 2020 and grew them from 750k a yr to $1,617,000 in 2024 It is a bittersweet day. Now I have to find my next adventure. @wetzelspretzels is a fantastic company!!! #wetzelspretzels #arundelmills

No artwork yet, but my next album drops late March or early April (sorry for the delays X-Ray Men!). It's a continuation of the Frank Sinatra-meets-Tears for Fears sound I've been playing with but has a few more surprises. Let me know if you'd like to be notified when it drops.

@Ramedog61 @JBONAMASSA I hope you heal up quickly! It was awfully nice of you to give away those tickets.

Had a total hip replacement on Thursday so I had to give up my 2nd row tickets to the @JBONAMASSA show in Cleveland last night. Gave them to our harmonica / acoustic guitar player because I knew he’d appreciate it. I was bummed but he told me it was a game changer for him. Pics:

@Mikehomeseller Lists are funny. Humans are interesting creatures.

What do you think of this list? Dave Grohl over Alex Lifeson? May over Hendrix?

@scottreecemusic 🤣

At crazy pop show with teenager - I ordered a beer and said to the barman, ‘I’m not sure I’m the target market’ - he said, ‘You’re my target market’🤣

@scottreecemusic Great photo!

Morning! There are brighter skies ahead…

@NcpNo Wow!

@SoniaDmusic I’ll see you on Insta, Sonia.

Selling my T-Style Kiesel on Reverb. If anyone is interested in a beautiful guitar to add to your collection. Kiesel Solo S6X Deep Honey Burst Flame reverb.com/item/86799989?…

@ChuckyTrading Very cool!

I said there would be BIG NEWS for CTC in 2025! INTRODUCING... Patricia "Danger" Taber, half of the new Chucky Trading Co! Danger is a singer, artist, and actor in Nashville, TN. She sings lead on half of the songs on our new album, scheduled for release in 2025. We can't wait for you to hear what we have been working on....

@ArozJoy @3mindblight @DorstenMusic @CountExcelGuy @CreativeReader3 @cmp_roger @Evenscored @FreeIsMe3 @JakeDuarte43 @ScottKash88 @SouleTunes @jod63uk @MarkLouisHudson @fred_baliad @EleazarTrader Happy new year!

Coast to Cost #2025newyear Superstars @3mindblight @DorstenMusic @CountExcelGuy @CreativeReader3 @cmp_roger @Evenscored @FreeIsMe3 @JakeDuarte43 @ScottKash88 @SouleTunes @jod63uk @MarkLouisHudson @fred_baliad @EleazarTrader @fedbysound

@ChuckyTrading Happy New Year!

From our music family to all of our friends and fellow musicians! ❤🎵🎶