harfangcap

$SATS owns about 53m shares of $SPCX. If you do the math, this is an insane discount now that we see a stable market on size for SpaceX . Strong Buy

With SpaceX getting priced at $135 today, Bloomberg estimates Musk's net worth is now $970.5B Tomorrow, any pop above the IPO price (or a Tesla rally) could make him the first Trillionaire!

I think there are two AI problems building, and the data/stories around them have been growing the last few weeks. 1. AI costs are outstripping utility at a lot of enterprise at least for now until it's figured out. 2. Datacenter buildout is facing limitations of speed and so these bottlenecks arent as bad. But we're in the front side of an exuberant rally (nobody can tell me MRVL today was logical). And in markets price creates narrative. However given positioning price can flip and the key point is that now we have narratives if people want to shift their focus that would raise doubts and create fuel for a correction. Nobody is debating whether earnings are strong, the issue is earnings are now being priced out years, that becomes more about sentiment as nobody can accurately forecast 3-5 years out, especially with historically disruptive technology.

S&P 500 is up 9 days in a row and 9 weeks in a row. One of the strongest, most unrelenting rallies in history.

I think the bear replies are annualizing the wrong quarter. Q1 looked ugly: $3.8M EBITDA / -$18M FCF. But 2026 guidance is 6.7–7.9k bopd, $20–45M EBITDA and $45–65M capex. That is clearly a build year, not normalized earnings. Production should ramp through the year as Beta wells come online. Royalty relief started May 1 and adds 600+ net bopd / $1M+ monthly revenue. New barrels also dilute the hedge book, so incremental production should be much more exposed to current oil prices. If $AMPY exits 2026 with a higher oil base and capex drops to maintenance levels in 2027, I think this can do $40–50M FCF next year. With the balance sheet now debt-free, the historical reason they could not return capital is gone. If execution is even decent, capital return should follow. This is new AMPY: new management, new board, directors actually owning stock, same too-cheap assets. Bairoil already has ~$10M/year LOE savings and free CCUS / power optionality that the market is valuing at basically zero. There were specific reasons Q1 production and EBITDA were low that should reverse or improve in Q2/Q3. Those will be the first cleaner quarters for the new structure. By the time it is obvious, the stock likely will not be here. At ~$4.50–5, I think downside is limited absent real execution failure/black swan tail risk at Beta, while upside to $7–10+ is very plausible. Frustrating name in this market, but extremely asymmetric if there are still investors willing to look past one ugly transition quarter. This is not really an oil bet, it's about cash flow and rerating through shareholder returns. Either the market will figure it out or the stock will be forced higher as it is being run like a private company now.

Anyone following $AMPY? To summarize the last 12 months at this small-cap E&P... 1) Terminated merger 2) CEO replaced 3) Sold assets 4) Now have a net cash balance sheet, 5) Doubling down on remaining 2 assets (capex) 6) Trades at ~0.4x book value

I'm fine with this $sei.v raise 41 cents. Considering there are no warrants, the 17–21% discount to the recent trading range is not too bad. Raising gross US$11.5(CA$15.6) . Share count increases 9.7%. I'm seeing an angry reaction in the discussion forums, but what is the argument? "The discount is too big" In this sector, with no warrants, you can't get a smaller discount. "The stock is too cheap now; raise money later at a higher valuation" The valuation is based on the drilling outcomes, farm-out negotiations and the oil price; they can't predict any of those, so they can't predict the future valuation, and can't rely on that for capital allocation decisions. If PEL 90 is happening, and it seems to be happening, which is good, and adding PEL-37 and KON-16 expenses(both acquisitions aligned with the business model), they were going to have to raise eventually, and it's always better to raise before the cash starts running low and the market starts front-running it. The CEO and President are indicated to invest CA$500k. Cash sources and use of proceeds:

Elon Musk just put an expiration date on the medical profession. And he gave it three years. The interviewer asked when Optimus would be a better surgeon than the best surgeons on Earth. Musk didn’t hesitate. Musk: “Three years. I’d say three years at scale.” Not a prototype. Not a lab experiment. At scale. To understand why that timeline is plausible, you have to understand the fundamental problem with human medicine. Musk: “Takes a super long time to learn to be a good doctor. And even then, the knowledge is constantly evolving. It’s hard to keep up with everything.” Musk: “Doctors have limited time. They make mistakes. How many great surgeons are there? Not that many.” That is the brutal reality of the greatest healthcare system humanity has ever built. It runs on exhausted humans with biological limits, trained over decades, who can only operate on one patient at a time. Optimus has none of those constraints. It doesn’t get tired. It doesn’t forget a study published last week. It doesn’t have an off day. It doesn’t have a caseload limit. And once you train one, you can manufacture ten thousand more with identical precision. Musk: “At that point, there will probably be more Optimus robots that are great surgeons than there are on Earth.” Think about what that actually means. The scarcity of elite surgical skill has been one of the defining limits of human healthcare since the beginning of medicine. Geography determined your odds of survival. Zip code determined your access to expertise. That bottleneck disappears overnight. Because you can’t train human surgeons fast enough to meet global demand. But you can manufacture infinite robots running identical perfect code. The most valuable skill in the world is about to become software. Infinitely replicable. Infinitely scalable. Available to every human being on Earth regardless of where they were born. Medical scarcity doesn’t fade gradually under that reality. It ends. And whoever controls that code controls healthcare access for billions. For all of human history, the leading cause of preventable death wasn’t disease. It was the shortage of great people to fight it. That problem has a solution now. And it ships in three years.