HL

Let's see how far these would go. $OUST $LAC $RIVN $TSLA $TAO

BREAKING: US GDP growth falls from 4.4% to 0.5% in Q4 2025, well below the initially expected +2.8% growth.

HORMUZ STILL BLOCKED AS IRAN ASSERTS CONTROL Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely frozen despite a fragile US-Iran ceasefire. Only a handful of Iran-linked vessels are moving, far below the usual ~135 daily transits. Iran is tightening control by introducing designated “safe routes” and requiring ships to coordinate with its military, citing mine risks. In practice, this has deterred most traffic—some tankers have even aborted crossings. A few Chinese tankers loaded with Saudi and Iraqi crude approached the strait but stopped short, highlighting ongoing uncertainty. Around the region, oil flows remain constrained and physical supply is tight. UAE oil chief Sultan Al Jaber said bluntly: “The Strait is not open.” While Iran claims vessels can pass, access is conditional and controlled. Shipping groups warn the situation is far from resolved. Concerns over mines and safety could delay a full reopening for weeks or months, even if traffic resumes.

TWO-WEEK CEASEFIRE DEAL Trump says he will pause planned attacks on Iran for two weeks after talks with Pakistan’s leadership and on the condition that Iran immediately and safely opens the Strait of Hormuz. He claims U.S. military goals have already been achieved and that negotiations toward a long-term peace deal with Iran are close to completion. A 10-point proposal from Iran is seen as a workable foundation, with most key issues already agreed. The two-week pause is intended to finalize the agreement and move toward broader peace in the Middle East.

IRAN'S UPDATED 10-POINT PROPOSAL AS PER THE NYT: 1. Permanent end to the war, no temporary ceasefire. 2. No future attacks on Iran, wants U.S. and Israeli guarantees. 3. No Israeli strikes on Hezbollah, including in Lebanon. 4. Lift all sanctions, full sanctions relief. 5. End regional fighting, not just attacks on Iran. 6. Reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Iran would end its blockade. 7. Safe-passage rules in Hormuz for ship movement. 8. Charge about $2 million per ship, transit fee instead of direct compensation. 9. Split the fees with Oman, shared proceeds. 10. Use Iran’s share for reconstruction to rebuild damaged infrastructure. Well...as unreasonable as these demands may seem to the US...they are talking, which is bullish? If the US counters this and tries to find something in the middle, for example, "give up your nukes and we will let go of some sanctions," then maybe a deal is closer than people think but it will take some serious negotiating since both sides are so apart on every issue.

There are no words.

Nobody knows if we bottomed, all you can do is act with the context and information provided by the market. And the most recent context has been: - Largest buy volume day (Tuesday) in the S&P 500 since Trump told us to buy stocks in April 2025 - Reclaim of the 10 day and 50 week moving average in the Nasdaq - Nasdaq reversing a 2% gap down to close green after Trump’s press conference - Many stocks continuing to act well - Groups and themes leading - Bad news getting absorbed - Horrible sentiment Time will tell, but this is reality as of the last few days.

Unemployment Rate Actual: 4.3% Estimated: 4.4% Prior: 4.4%

*US MARCH UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.3%; EST. 4.4%

Not only is there not an oil shortage, we are on path to have the largest global surplus in recorded history.

NASDAQ closing green after a big gap down following Trump’s press conference last night, headlines regarding tariffs, and Iran not opening the Strait of Hormuz to the U.S. is pretty notable.

BREAKING: Iran has told the Philippines that it will allow Philippine-bound and Philippine-flagged ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This comes just 9 days after the country declared an "energy emergency" in one of their worst energy crises in history.

OIL SURGES PAST $110 AS WAR RISKS INTENSIFY Oil jumped above $110 and diesel topped $200 after Trump threatened escalation in Iran, raising fears of prolonged disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite hints the war could end soon, no clear timeline or plan has emerged, keeping markets on edge. With the strait effectively closed, supply remains severely constrained and prices have surged—Brent is up about 50% since the conflict began. Refined fuels are under even more pressure, with diesel spikes signaling rising global inflation risks. Tight supply is evident, with near-term oil contracts trading at record premiums. Until there’s clarity on de-escalation or Hormuz reopens, analysts expect continued volatility and elevated energy prices.

HORMUZ UNCERTAINTY KEEPS OIL PRICES HIGH Trump’s latest remarks have not changed forecasts, with Brent still expected to average around $113 in Q2, according to Oxford Economics. The main risk remains the Strait of Hormuz. With no clear plan to reopen it, supply disruptions are likely to continue, keeping upward pressure on oil prices. Analysts warn that the longer the strait stays effectively closed, the less effective reserves become—raising costs for the global economy.

Trump on Iran today: No deal needed to exit - The U.S. does not require a formal deal with Iran to withdraw. - We can leave very soon. Strait of Hormuz - Once the U.S. exits, the Strait issue will likely resolve itself. - Other nations who need the oil should “go take it” the U.S. won’t police it forever. Negotiations ongoing - U.S. is currently in serious talks with Iran. - Trump says progress is “great” and a deal could be reached shortly. Exit timeline - U.S. will exit Iran very soon within the next 2 to 3 weeks. Regime change already happened - Trump claims “regime change has occurred.” - Iran’s top leaders have been decimated. - We’re now dealing with a “new and more reasonable” group.

“It’s a bear market rally” Nobody knows in real time what it is. All you can do is look for signs of a potential bottom. Few things to look for: - Big volume near lows - Seller exhaustion (low volume on red days) - Key moving average reclaims (10/20/50/200) - Good news = good news - Bad news = good news - Leaders leading - VIX deflation - Price character change (bounces continue to get bid vs. getting sold) - Angry bearish folks (denial) - STRONG OPENS - STRONG CLOSES Bottom, bear market rally, whatever. You just need to follow what price is saying, everything else falls into place.

Sold a lot of my puts this morning and have started buying some shares, not calls. We didn't get back to the pre-tarriff highs on the cash market, but the front-month futures contract did go back to pre-Liberation Day levels. If you raised cash and bought puts weeks ago, at some point, you have to take profits on those puts and start deploying. This is likely not over, but I'm putting roughly of a quarter of the cash I raised to work. To me, there is a significant tone change and perhaps the dawning recognition on DJT of the reality of the situation. If he disengages and stops offensive attacks, my guess is global pressure will force some workable solution for Hormuz on Iran. Ideally, this leads to the US pulling out of the Middle-East altogether. If all this is just another head fake, then I'll just buy more stuff lower.

The median midterm year drawdown is 15.6% .. S&P 500 1950-2022

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 David Sacks' term as President Trump's crypto and AI czar ends.

ESCALATION LOOMS IN US–IRAN CONFLICT 🔸Trump threatens to intensify the conflict after Iran rejects peace talks 🔸Israel claims it killed Iran’s IRGC naval commander tied to Strait of Hormuz disruption (unconfirmed by Iran) 🔸US considering a “final blow,” potentially involving ground troops and large-scale bombing (Axios) 🔸Brent oil heading for its biggest monthly surge since 1990

Philippines Suspends Electricity Market to Prevent Price Surge