Jared Heyman

I just published On what actually predicts YC startup success medium.com/p/on-what-actu…

I just published On the freakishly strong YC W26 batch medium.com/p/on-the-freak…

I just published On hitting the ‘bullseye’ medium.com/p/on-hitting-t…

I just published On the ‘new’ Y Combinator medium.com/p/on-the-new-y…

I just published On the 5 archetypes of top YC founders medium.com/p/on-the-5-arc…

I just published On 9 data-driven tips for YC startup founders medium.com/p/on-9-data-dr…

I just published On founder-product fit medium.com/p/on-founder-p…

@garrytan We did the exact same analysis and came to the exact same conclusion: jaredheyman.medium.com/on-the-power-l…

Spray and Pray is a cargo cult pejorative that is no longer true and today only a justification for VC laziness Numerically from our dataset of 5000 startups, Monte Carlo simulations indicate larger portfolios at YC result in much higher median multiples on invested capital

I just published On Rebel Theorem 4.0 medium.com/p/on-rebel-the…

I just published On YC startup exits (2025 update) medium.com/p/on-yc-startu…

I just published On investing in ‘hot’ Y Combinator startups medium.com/p/on-investing…

I just published On why AI is coming for my job next medium.com/p/on-why-ai-is…

I just published On the last decade of Y Combinator link.medium.com/q9bK3xre6Qb

I just published On seed-stage startup traction (and why to ignore it) link.medium.com/rofjjm0yNQb

I just published On YC unicorn founders link.medium.com/J4teEPjWgMb

I just published On Rebel Theorem and YC batch quality link.medium.com/DhBHv4xXTLb

I just published On Rebel Theorem 3.0 link.medium.com/iq7LLbb2VKb

As my long-time readers of my blog posts know, Rebel Fund maintains the largest and most comprehensive database of Y Combinator startups and founders that exists outside of YC itself. We use the millions of data points we’ve collected primarily to train our Rebel Theorem machine learning algorithm to predict which YC startups are most likely to drive investment returns for our fund, but they also allow us to understand and share unique insights on YC startups overall with the wider world. Our database includes latest valuation estimates¹ for every YC startup in history, which we analyze to identify trends and patterns related to YC startup performance. In this post, I’ll share some surprising statistics on the steep power law that drives YC startup returns for venture funds like us, and argue for why a large portfolio strategy is optimal when it comes to investing in YC startups. This will be a very data-driven post so buckle up! link.medium.com/D6Ootw8LdJb

I just published On the Y Combinator Summer 2023 batch link.medium.com/H3IlL6VIEDb