Andrew Fox@Mr_Andrew_Fox
Here we go. Operation Gideon’s Chariot. Full military takeover of Gaza if no deal with Hamas is made by the end of Trump’s visit to the Middle East on 16th May.
Same war aims: defeat Hamas militarily, dismantle Hamas governance, and secure the release of all hostages. The IDF will expand its presence across Gaza, and remain in every captured area, instead of previous raiding tactics.
A mass evacuation of civilians from northern and central Gaza to southern zones will be carried out to separate them from combatants. The same model as Rafah will create secure zones fully clear of threats and absorbed into Israel’s security perimeter.
The blockade on humanitarian aid will continue during the operation. Aid will resume only after the evacuation, within a tightly monitored “sterile zone” in Rafah. There, aid will be distributed by civilian contractors and screened by the IDF to prevent diversion to Hamas.
This plan creates a limited window for a deal under the Witkoff framework, offering one final chance to reach an agreement before the assault begins. Even if a deal is made, Israel will retain all cleared territory and will not withdraw from the newly established security buffer zone around Gaza.
The plan also includes advancing voluntary emigration options for Gazans, especially those outside Hamas-controlled zones.
Some hasty initial thoughts. Firstly, separating the whole civilian population from combatants will be an enormous challenge. Secondly, taking and holding ground runs the risk of an Iraq-style insurgency. Thirdly, the tunnels will continue to pose significant threat of ambush and will almost be a whole operation on their own. Fourthly, the Hamas/Qatar information war is going to go off the scale. Expect the shrieking to reach never-before seen levels of atrocity accusations. Fifthly, this is going to take a huge reserve mobilisation by the IDF. It is going to be economically extremely costly. Sixthly, the fact this has been leaked emphasises that the IDF may well prefer a hostage release deal (on their terms) or even a Hamas surrender, rather than go ahead with this plan.