Ken So

Congress came back empty-handed, and the DHS shutdown market started pricing a longer freeze 📷 On @Kalshi, odds of the shutdown lasting at least 90 days jumped from 27% to 47%, a +20pp move after lawmakers returned with no deal. We broke out the contract ladder and where the volume hit first. octagonai.co/news/governmen… #Politics #PredictionMarket

A U.S.-Iran deal just got pulled forward on the board 📷 “Before August” jumped from 39% to 56%, a 17pp move on @Kalshi after new talks. We broke down the contract timing and where the market is still pricing the rest of 2026. octagonai.co/news/us-iran-n… #Politics #Geopolitics #PredictionMarkets

Bitcoin’s April ceiling just got repriced hard. @Kalshi odds of BTC topping $75K in April jumped from 46% to 88%, a +42pp move as spot price ripped toward $75K. The real question is what’s driving the repricing and how the full distribution shifted. octagonai.co/news/bitcoin-p… #Bitcoin #Crypto #PredictionMarkets @Kalshi

Hormuz Normalization Timeline Pushed Out Amid US Blockade News 'Before May 15, 2026' contract just collapsed on Kalshi. 📷 Odds moved from 43% to 20% (-23.0pp). octagonai.co/news/strait-of… #Politics #PredictionMarkets @Kalshi

Yes, our model generates independent probabilities for each market it analyzes based on fundamental research. It's showing some remarkable results when the edge is > 30%. We backtested our model against 5,481 Kalshi market contracts over the past 30 days. 1. When our model barely disagreed with market prices (<5% gap): ~0.4% ROI 2. When it strongly disagreed (>30% gap): +29.4% ROI Takeaway: Prediction markets are efficient on average but not at the extremes.

@ken_so @Kalshi @Polymarket I'm guessing the magic sauce is in how you come up with the independent probability (AKA coming up with the edge).

Deep Trading Bot v2.0 is here.🧠 Open source. AI-native. Built for Prediction Markets (@Kalshi, @Polymarket soon) What it does: 1. Runs deep fundamental research on every market in real time 2. Generates independent probability estimates 3. Detects edge vs. live order books in real time 4. Sizes every bet and filters trades through risk engine before a single dollar is risked All from a single CLI command. We're witnessing a massive shift. Prediction markets are becoming the real-time heartbeat of how the world prices truth and AI agents are going to be the ones trading them 24/7 while we sleep. A year from now, every serious trader will have an AI co-pilot running deep research in the background. We're building that future right now, in the open, for everyone. This is how you trade prediction markets in 2026 and it's only going to get better. Powered by @OctagonAI research: → github.com/OctagonAI/kals… @xai #PredictionMarkets #AlgoTrading #Kalshi #AIAgents #FinTech #TradingBot

@seelffff If you want to add Prediction Markets Trading (Kalshi, Polymarket soon), here's a Kalshi trading bot CLI. Conducts real-time fundamental research on each Kalshi market, models edge, sizes bets, and executes. github.com/OctagonAI/kals…

i cancelled $2,000/month in trading subscriptions replaced every single one with open-source repos here's the full stack: 1. TradingView Pro ($30/mo) → lightweight-charts    14K stars. by TradingView themselves. 45KB. free github.com/tradingview/li… 2. Bloomberg Terminal ($2,000/mo) → fredapi + Claude    every macro dataset the Fed publishes. free API github.com/mortada/fredapi 3. backtest platform ($100/mo) → prediction-market-backtesting    NautilusTrader fork with Polymarket + Kalshi adapters github.com/evan-kolberg/p… 4. real-time dashboard → polyrec    terminal UI: Chainlink oracle, Binance feed, orderbook depth    70+ indicators. auto CSV logging. strategy backtester github.com/txbabaxyz/poly… 5. bot framework (7 strategies) → Polymarket-Trading-Bot    53K lines TypeScript. arbitrage, momentum, market making,    AI forecast, whale copy-trade, convergence github.com/dylanpersonguy… 6. strategy reverse engineering → polybot    execution + market data infrastructure. paper trading    Kafka, ClickHouse, Grafana. full analytics pipeline github.com/ent0n29/polybot 7. paper trading for AI agents → polymarket-paper-trader    real order books. exact fee model. slippage tracking    your Claude agent gets $10K paper money and trades github.com/agent-next/pol… 8. token savings → rtk    CLI proxy. cuts Claude Code tokens by 60-90%    Rust. single binary. 10 AI tools supported github.com/rtk-ai/rtk 9. Claude Code itself ($200/mo) → goose    35K stars. by Block (Jack Dorsey). Rust    works with any LLM. full agent loop. free github.com/block/goose 10. wallet tracking + copy trading → Kreo     track top Polymarket wallets. auto copy trades     the only tool on this list i actually pay for     because it makes more than it costs t.me/KreoPolyBot?st… total before: ~$2,600/month total now: $0 + Kreo bookmark this. you'll need it

We backtested our model against 5,481 Kalshi market contracts over the past 30 days. Conviction is everything.🧵 1. When our model barely disagreed with market prices (<5% gap): ~0.4% ROI 2. When it strongly disagreed (>30% gap): +29.4% ROI Takeaway: Prediction markets are efficient on average but not at the extremes. When our AI sees a 30%+ mispricing, it's usually right.

@ken_so @Kalshi @Polymarket Please show some proof of working it on backtesting.

@gusik4ever Great list. Sharing one more: just open-sourced an AI trading bot for @Kalshi prediction markets. Does deep research, estimates probabilities, finds edge in the order book, and executes trades with built-in risk management. All from a single CLI. github.com/OctagonAI/kals…

the fastest growing GitHub repos in finance this week: 1. TauricResearch/TradingAgents (+2.5K ★) simulates a full trading firm with LLM agents. one researches, one manages risk, one makes the call and they argue before every trade. 2. disler/last30days-skill (+2K ★) AI agent skill that researches any topic across Reddit, X, YouTube, HN, Polymarket and the web. drop it into any Claude-compatible setup and get instant deep-dive research on anything. 3. TauricResearch/TradingAgents-CN (+1K ★) Chinese-enhanced fork of TradingAgents. same multi-agent LLM trading architecture, fully localized for Chinese markets and data sources. 23K stars and climbing. 4. OpenBB (+1K ★) financial data platform for analysts, quants and AI agents. the open-source Bloomberg alternative that keeps getting better every week. 5. furutech/daily_stock_analysis (+924 ★) LLM-powered stock analyzer for US, A-share and H-share markets. real-time news + multi-source data + decision dashboard. runs on a schedule at zero cost. pure automation. 6. microsoft/qlib (+638 ★) AI-oriented quant investment platform from Microsoft. covers the full pipeline from data to live trading. deep learning, auto-quant, backtesting — all in one place. 7. anthropics/claude-scientific-skills (+573 ★) ready-to-use agent skills for research, science, engineering, finance and writing. plug-and-play toolkit for anyone building on top of Claude. 8. valuecell/valuecell (+315 ★) community-driven, multi-agent platform for financial apps. still early but the architecture is solid and the use cases are stacking up fast. 9. e2b-dev/500-AI-Agents-Projects (+256 ★) curated collection of 500 AI agent use cases across industries. the best reference list if you're figuring out what to build next. 10. Jon-Becker/prediction-market-analysis (+246 ★) framework for collecting and analyzing prediction market data. includes the largest public dataset of Polymarket + Kalshi trades. researchers are already publishing papers on top of it. bookmark this and start today.

Good question. The bot cross-references live order book depth with the estimated edge. If the top-of-book volume can't support a meaningful fill at the target price, the risk engine either scales the position down or passes. We also factor in historical fill rates per contract tier so the model learns which markets actually let you execute cleanly vs. ones that slip.

@ken_so @Kalshi @Polymarket interesting... how are you thinking about edge that shows up in the book but isn’t fully executable in practice?

The Hormuz angle is one we've been digging into. Markets right now put Brent crude's 50th-percentile max around $133 through April 30 but the more interesting question is why that number hasn't moved more given three weeks of near-closure. We built OctagonAI to research the cited drivers behind odds like these, not just report them. Your GDP double-dip estimate at 29% is worth a closer look through that lens too. octagonai.co/markets/econom…

The most important things to know re:global risks this week

Congrats again on ACX. What stands out to us watching superforecasters vs. market prices is how rarely the market explanation keeps up with the number. A probability shifts 15 points and there's no published rationale. We built OctagonAI specifically to research and cite the "why" behind each move. octagonai.co/markets Curious whether you find that explanatory layer useful when you're updating your own forecasts.

I'm honored of placing first in the Astral Codex Ten - Metaculus tournament for 2025, out of 2975 competitors (top 0.03%)! 🏆🔮 This 1st place win comes after placing 12th in 2024, 12th in 2023, and 20th in 2022. Predicting 2025 - of all years - was quite a challenge. 💪

DHS Funding Market Prices In Imminent Deal After White House Talks Odds moved from 69% to 95% (+26.0pp). Before Apr 8 2026 contract just spiked on Kalshi. 📈 octagonai.co/news/dhs-gover… #Politics #PredictionMarkets #DHS

Gas at $4.60+ by end of March? Kalshi traders don't think so.⛽📉 Probability collapsed from 67% to 35% in a single session. That's a -32pp move. The market is rapidly pricing out any extreme gas spike scenario heading into spring. #Energy #PredictionMarkets octagonai.co/news/us-gas-pr…

The guaranteed $1M for the top bracket is where the actual math gets interesting. If you’re looking for a data-driven edge, Octagon AI tracks real-time prediction market probabilities against modeled forecasts. Useful for spotting where the bracket-building crowd is mispricing the actual seed strength. octagonai.co/markets/

The $1 Billion Kalshi Perfect Bracket Challenge $1 Billion for a perfect bracket $1 Million guaranteed to the top scoring bracket $1 Million to charity and scholarships See the full rules and submit your bracket: kalshi.com/billion-dollar… No purchase or deposit required. SIG Parametrics, LLC, a member of the Susquehanna International Group of Companies, is financially backing this promotion.

Prediction markets are quietly pricing a weak Tesla Q1. Current odds imply: • ~78% probability Tesla delivers <350k vehicles • ~80% odds of ≥340k • ~64% odds of ≥330k That effectively puts the market’s base case around 330k–350k deliveries. What’s interesting: China doesn’t appear to be the problem. Jan–Feb China wholesale deliveries are already ~128k (+36% YoY), putting China on pace for ~180k–200k units in Q1. If that holds, the implied slowdown is likely US + Europe demand elasticity, not global EV demand. One more nuance: the recent “spike” in higher delivery probabilities likely isn’t new Tesla news but rather prediction market microstructure. With thin liquidity, a few trades in adjacent delivery thresholds can mechanically shift probabilities. When you combine regional data + prediction markets, the signal becomes clearer: the market expects Tesla to land in a narrow 330k–340k range. Full breakdown ↓ octagonai.co/news/tesla-q1-… #Tesla #TSLA #EVs #PredictionMarkets #Investing #Markets

@rickcrypto_eth Funny how "hidden" ETH shows up right when whales dumped 74k ETH to exchanges and $127M in perp longs got rekt. That buy wall at $2k on Coinbase Pro wasn't holding back found coins. octagonai.co/markets/crypto…

Just discovered $ETH I didn’t realize I had. Every buy tucked away some fees in a hidden wallet. HUNDREDS of dollars chillin’ for many traders. ethereum-incinerator.live Years of trading equals years of fees. You might find tens of thousands just hanging out. Standard tools

@CoinDesk @HeleneBraunn Major players gathering but the numbers tell a different story. $272M ETF outflows and 56K BTC hitting exchanges show institutions de-risking despite the summit optics. DXY strength + geopolitical ten octagonai.co/markets/crypto…

Latest: Trump’s World Liberty Financial summit at Mar-a-Lago drew Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, Franklin Templeton’s Jenny Johnson, Binance’s CZ and more to discuss tokenized real estate, stablecoins and U.S. crypto regulation. @HeleneBraunn reports. coindesk.com/business/2026/…

@pesanibundaku Markets pricing in major Robotaxi revenue by 2026, but deployment timeline still the key risk. Tesla options show bullish bets on FSD rollout success — though Musk's leveraged position create octagonai.co/markets/econom…

That’s the Tesla Robotaxi (Cybercab) a fully autonomous vehicle introduced by Elon Musk as the future of driverless transportation. Not a personal car. Not a conventional bus. It’s an autonomous electric pod, designed without a steering wheel or pedals.