@dylan522p It's been better since at least February. Pairing Codex with Cursor for execution is what I recommend to everyone
English
Maxinomics
1.2K posts
Maxinomics
@maxinomics
Follow the money ▫️https://t.co/SzK8imsCzU ▫️by @phlndrws & @morningbrew
California 가입일 Haziran 2021
183 팔로잉27.6K 팔로워
Usage share of OpenAI grew vs Anthropic yesterday despite Mythos 5 / Fable 5 launch
Multiple power users at SemiAnalysis tried Mythos / Fable
Got refusals for nonsensical reasons
Got pissed off at Anthropic
Gave Codex a legitimate try
Now they actually prefer it to 4.8 Opus
San Francisco, CA 🇺🇸 English
The SpaceX valuation fight has two sides, and one of them is about to be spectacularly wrong
Bears: 100x revenue is insane
Bulls: near-monopoly on launch + two businesses that grow forever
Both have a point, both can't be right
English
@maxinomics your content is so much fun to watch that I tell at least 2 people per day about it.
English
@GlassLensRes Won’t run out. The strait is leaky and Gulf countries are moving heaven and earth to construct pipelines around it
English
@maxinomics U.S. doesn’t have unlimited SPR tho. Once that runs out, what happens then?
English
It will be nearly impossible for inflation to keep climbing if oil continues to fall
Sets up an interesting psychology for consumers and investors if gas/diesel do what looks most likely: round trip to their pre-war price
Art Berman@aeberman12
The global oil system has offset almost 90% of Hormuz barrels 17.5 mmb/d has been offset with bypass pipelines, reduced Chinese imports, increased US export, SPR releases & demand destruction #Oil #Hormuz #EnergyMarkets #CrudeOil #DemandDestruction #EnergySecurity #Commodities
English
@I_am_josjoe Maybe, but odds are that hitting the criteria means the business is growing significantly
English
Sets up the S&P 500 to potentially be forced buyers down the road at a higher valuation and much larger percent of the index
Rules are rules but interesting setup for investors and traders who will absolutely front run inclusion if it become obvious SpaceX hit the requirements
Eric Balchunas@EricBalchunas
SHOCKER: S&P 500 will NOT fast track SpaceX. So it will take AT LEAST a year, probably more. This is wild considering every other big boy index is 5-15 days. This could create significant return dispersion bt 'passive' indexes. Choose wisely.
English
@DChexs Planet Labs. This is exactly the product they offer, though it’s not free
English
@maxinomics Legit question, when can I get Google maps quality satellite images refreshed daily? Hourly? I know the EU has the Copernicus project but the quality is so low it often isn't helpful. In my work I would often like to know exactly what day real estate work began.
English
There are only a handful of perfect orbits above Earth. Once they're claimed, they're gone for good
English
@maxinomics They also guaranteed jobs for life in order to convince the unions…
English
Mine → smelter → factory → your door
Every pipe in the American economy is full right now
English
In a bit of irony, this is exactly what happened to Tesla in 2020. As soon as it was clear they had four quarters of profit and SPX would be going against it's own rules to not include them the stock was full bid, it tripled over the five up to the add date
Granted this was stimmy/covid era so wasn't purely inclusion but was a major factor
English
@GlassLensRes I will take a look. What are the odds this makes it past anti-trust?
English
@maxinomics x.com/glasslensres/s…
You should discuss the possibility of this merger becoming the greatest building block for the future of Americas logistical infrastructure. Could also be the downfall with the monopoly and pricing power they’d have…
Glass Lens Investment Research@GlassLensRes
English
Correction, Mr Beast makes $24mil per month in AdSense. The circled number does not account for video sponsors
English
mrbeast makes ~$24m per month from youtube alone, that doesn’t including sponsorships or anything else on just one of his many many channels.
that’s ~$300m are on just one channel from youtube revenue sharing alone.
his entire business is likely more then >$1b arr at this point. wouldn’t be shocking to see him as the first creator to go public at some point.
English
@maxinomics The institutions underwriting the stock are most certainly involved in a con. There is no universe where SpaceX generates the income to remotely ever justify the price. Orders of magnitude worse than the DotCom IPOs.
English
SpaceX doesn’t sell rockets. Rockets are the factory
Launch evolved from the core product to an operating expense for building and running whatever products SpaceX wants to put into orbit. Starlink already proved the model works
If orbital data centers prove to work the way many smart people are suggesting, SpaceX gets the highest-margin compute that exists… defended by a launch monopoly no one can match
That's how you get to this valuation and that's why it's hard for a lot of people to swallow. What you're buying is a call option on orbital data centers working, not revenue generated from launch or even Starlink
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
GOLDMAN SEES SPACEX AI REVENUE EXPLODING TO $322B BY 2030 Goldman Sachs projects SpaceX AI revenue rising from $3.2B in 2025 to $322B by 2030, a ~100x increase, forming the core justification for its $1.78T IPO valuation. Total revenue is forecast to reach $474B, with Starlink at $144B and rockets at $8.3B. AI segment growth is tied to aggressive market assumptions despite current losses and execution concerns around xAI. Overall EBITDA is seen surging to $352B by 2030.
English
@bad_dadd A con implies someone is intentionally lying about a future outcome they know will never be achieved. The company is very clear about what it’s trying to do. What is the con from your point of view?
English
@maxinomics I can’t believe, you of all people, would even entertain the idea of SpaceX being anything other than the largest con in recent history.
English
Maxinomics 리트윗함
I have no idea if the valuation makes sense, neither does anyone else. There are valid points on either side
What would happen if SpaceX IPO'ed at $400bil tomorrow? That's one way to look at this
I find it hard to imagine it wouldn't be bid up aggressively, ultimately finding a stopping point somewhere around the IPO price
And that is the job of those selling the IPO. You have a fiduciary responsibility to not undershoot what the market will accept
English